2022 Austrian GP Raceday Update and Tips – JP
2022 Austrian GP Raceday Update
James Punt’s sole tip so far for Qualifying won. His ante-post tip Max Verstappen is on pole, let’s hope he gets the job done. James also has a 2022 Austrian GP Raceday update, check it out below.
2022 Austrian GP Raceday
We had the dress rehearsal yesterday which Max Verstappen won comfortably. Is there any reason to believe that it will be any different today?
Certainly, Ferrari believe so. Charles Leclerc was only 1.67 seconds behind at the end of the 23 lap race. He was closing on Verstappen in the dying laps and the theory is that the Ferrari was getting more life out of the tyres. If so, then over a full race distance, this might turn the tables.
What we don’t know is how hard Verstappen was trying. He was able to open a gap in the first two laps and keep the chasing Ferrari’s out of DRS range. He kept it at around 2 seconds for the rest of the race and didn’t have a lot more to do.
Sainz Has Momentum
The two Ferrari drivers made it easier for Verstappen as they spent the opening laps fighting for second place. There were no team orders in place and the two were going for it, which in turn let Verstappen take it easy up front. Leclerc came out on top of the inter team battle, but it was a sign that all is not well between the two Ferrari drivers.
Sainz has closed the gap to Leclerc to just 12 points. In the last five races he has scored 73 points to Leclerc’s 34. The momentum is with the Spaniard. He finished ahead of Leclerc in both races here last year. His tail will be up after winning his first GP last time out at Silverstone.
2022 Austrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to beat Charles Leclerc @ 2.95 with Unibet
Ferrari have underachieved so far, giving ground to Red Bull due to poor reliability and operational disfunction. Is today set up for another cock up? Will two squabbling drivers trip themselves up rather than take the fight to Verstappen?
The Red Bull is still running overweight, more so than Ferrari. The extra weight makes the tyres work harder and in theory, the Red Bulls should be struggling more at the end of stints and the race, compared to Ferrari. In Red Bull’s favour is that the Red Bull Ring is not overly hard on tyres, certainly compared to Silverstone. On the mediums in Friday practice, Verstappen was faster but the Ferraris were better on the soft tyre. If we were to get both on the soft tyre in the final stint, the theory is that Ferrari would be faster.
Perez In The Picture
All that could be rendered irrelevant by a safety car allowing a stop for fresh rubber of course. Red Bull will probably be helped by the fact that Perez was able to finish 5th yesterday and that brings him into the picture, especially if tyre wear does become an issue. Perez is a rubber miser and he might just be running strong at the death.
We have backed Verstappen ante post and he is now a best priced 1.62. I am happy enough to let things ride as they are.
There is also the threat of rain in the forecast. The start of the F2 race was wet this morning but it has been dry since and there is no rain forecast for the start of the race and just a 20% chance during it.
Rear Wings
As for the rest of the field We have Mercedes starting 4th and 8th for Russell and Hamilton respectively. Hamilton wasn’t able to make much progress in the sprint race. He picked up a little damage at the start when hit by Gasly. Russell had a quiet race, off the pace to the top 2 teams, but faster than the Alpine of Ocon. The Mercedes is running old, higher drag rear wings after the two drivers broke the new ones when crashing on Friday. That is hurting their straight line speed and will make the race pace less than ideal.
Ocon is another ante post selection to finish in the top 10. So far, so good. The Alpine is best of the rest this weekend, but our other bet for a double points finish was dealt a blow when Alonso’s car just died on the starting grid, and he was unable to take part in the sprint. He will now have to start at the back. Reliability seems to be a problem all of a sudden, so fingers crossed for Ocon.
Haas Looking Solid
The two Haas cars qualified 7th and 9th and they will be going for their second double points finish in a row. They have both been top 10 in all bar the FP2 session. There is nobody behind them who looks to have any great pace advantage, apart from Alonso and Bottas who will be starting at the back.
Lance Stroll will start 12th after Bottas takes his penalty and that is his second best starting position of the season and five places better than his average for the season. His average finishing position is 12.3 and his car is reliable, so a points finish is within his grasp. His odds are generous and he is a race day bet.
2022 Austrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lance Stroll to finish in the points @ 3.25 generally available
Another driver who looks to have points scoring potential is Zhou Guanyu in the Alfa Romeo. We backed him at Silverstone with disastrous results, but he looks decent value to get some payback today. He will start 13th having started the sprint race from the pit lane. He has had four DNF’s from the last six races, so this is a risker bet than with Stroll, but the odds make it worth taking.
2022 Austrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Zhou Guanyu to finish in the points @ 3.75 with Hills
McLaren have been very disappointing so far this weekend. They had expected to be competitive, but they haven’t shown much pace and lining up 10th and 11th is as good as they have been. Norris is a track specialist and he will get as much out of the car as possible, but they are very much mired in the midfield. Norris looks worth taking on with Kevin Magnussen who starts three places ahead and in the Haas which has been looking strong all weekend. Their reliability leaves something to be desired but the pace is there.
