2022 Azerbaijan GP Tips and Preview

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The Azerbaijan GP is a personal favourite. The circuit was not universally praised when it was unveiled. It very long flat-out sector was seen as too long, the fact that there are ten 90-degree corners was Mickey Mouse and the twisty sector through the old town too gimmicky.

However, the proof of the pudding is in the eating, and the Baku circuit has provided a veritable feast of drama and unpredictability, making it the must watch race of the year. It is rarely dull, and you cannot take your eyes off the action for fear of missing something.

Baku made its debut in 2016 as the European GP, before becoming the Azerbaijan GP ever since. There was no race here in 2020 but in its five years we have seen some strange results.

There have been five different drivers who qualified on pole position. Three for Mercedes, but just one for Hamilton. The other two went to a Ferrari diver, Vettel in 2018 and Leclerc in 2021. The race itself has been won by five different drivers. Rosberg, Ricciardo, Hamilton, Bottas and Perez. Three wins for Mercedes and two for Red Bull.

Pole Not Pivotal

The race has only been won from pole position twice, the average DNF rate is 4.40, but very late retirements have seen drivers classified but not finishing the race. Last year Verstappen was heading for a comfortable win before his tyre exploded on the long straight, pitching him into the wall. The race was red flagged and restarted. Hamilton pressed the wrong button at the re-start and ran out at the first corner, leaving Sergio Perez to hang on and win what was a three lap sprint race. It was ridiculously good fun.

In 2018 it was Bottas who was heading for the win before he too fell victim to a puncture down the long straight, this time on the penultimate lap, leaving Hamilton to pick up the win.

In 2017 Daniel Ricciardo qualified tenth but went on to win the race, having been in 17th place on lap 6.

The nature of the track is very hard on cars and the drivers. It is a very fast street circuit which really tests the drivers’ abilities, mistakes are harshly punished and as we have seen, punctures have played a big part in races here and the chances of safety cars and red flags are very high.

2022 Azerbaijan GP: Driver Records

It is fair to say that nobody has dominated in Baku. In five years, there has been no multiple winners, despite Mercedes largely dominating the whole time period of the track’s existence. Bottas very nearly won twice, but so far Baku has thrown up a different winner every time.

One driver who has always performed well here is Sebastian Vettel. He has always finished in the top four, qualified on pole once, and twice a runner up, including for Aston Martin last year. Bottas has a pole, a win, a second place and a very near miss for win number two. Sergio Perez has a win, a lucky one, but that is Baku for you, and two third places.

Sainz Solid

Charles Leclerc has a pole and has always finished top 6. Carlos Sainz has his usual steady run of points scoring places, four top 8s with a best of 5th. Hamilton has a win, a pole and one second place, but it has not been a great track for him, by his standards.

In terms of surprise winners, Ricciardo stands out in 2017 and Perez last year to a lesser extent. In terms of podium finishers, we do see more in the way of surprises. Perez twice for Force India in 2016 and 2018, Gasly for Alpha Tauri last year, Lance Stroll for Williams in 2017 and Vettel for Aston Martin last year.

Only 2019 had a predictable podium with the first three on the grid finishing in that order. That 2019 race is a warning that we might have a boring, predictable race, but I doubt it.

Who will the circuit suit?

For a street circuit, Baku is both long and unusually power sensitive. The very long (1 KM), flat out sector demands power and good top end speed is rewarded. That is a positive for Red Bull in 2022, so long as they have properly fixed the DRS that nearly cost Verstappen dear in Spain.

The many 90-degree corners will reward good traction and low-end performance, which is a Ferrari strength this year, as will the more technical middle sector. As with many tracks this season, the two leading cars, Ferrari and Red Bull, arrive at a very similar lap time via two different routes.

Lady Luck Required

Qualifying is much less important here than in Monaco or Spain as luck can play a very big role. Pole position has very much been Charles Leclerc’s preserve this season, but he has been unable to capitalise on it in the last three races. His failure to win in Monaco was a classic cock-up by Ferrari, who went missing in action under the pressure of a fast-moving strategic situation.

Red Bull have been involved in many tight battles in the last year or two and they tend to make the right calls, as do Mercedes. Ferrari have a tradition of getting it wrong and they are not as used to fighting at the front and what to do when things go tits up. On a circuit such as this, a tits up scenario (TUS) is very likely.

Red Bull Race Advantage

It would be no surprise to see another Ferrari pole position, then a Red Bull hunting them down in the race, especially with that huge straight being so hard to defend from a car getting a massive DRS boost charging from behind.

Red Bull are optimistic that the DRS problems they had on Verstappen’s car in Spain have been fixed, but also acknowledged that the long straight here will be the acid test. Opening the rear wing slot when travelling at a far higher speed than was the case in Monaco will tell the team if they have indeed succeeded in addressing the problem.

It is the car’s performance on that long flat-out section of the lap which is key to winning the race. Ferrari can compete in terms of setting a competitive lap time, but if they are slower along the later stage of the long drag into the first corner, it will be very hard to win the race. Overtaking on the rest of the lap is hard, but with a working DRS and the Red Bulls’ inherent faster end of straight speed, it will be a lot easier for a Red Bull to overtake, and somewhat easier to defend in this critical sector.

Long Straight Crucial

We have seen cars coming from a long way back to make an overtake here, and even without DRS, the tow will be not insignificant. Thinking back to the Emilia Romagna GP, the race was won and lost at the end of the long straight there. Ferrari just didn’t have the grunt to capitalise on the speed they had across the rest of the lap. It could be something similar this weekend.

Will the trend for different pole sitters and race winners continue? Very possibly, for the race at least.

Max Is Punt’s Favourite

Max Verstappen is my idea of the favourite, and he has yet to even get a podium here, never mind a win, but he was cruelly robbed last year. He is likely to have the best race car but may have to play second fiddle to Ferrari in qualifying. Charles Leclerc has been on pole for five of the seven races so far this season and never off the front row. It is very hard to see past him for pole position again.

Max Verstappen is next best, but he has only manged one pole and three further front rows. Perez picked up pole in Jeddah but that has been his sole front row. Carlos Sainz has been making some progress in qualifying, with two front rows and a third from the last three races. However, he is struggling to get within a couple of tenths of his teammate.

Leclerc has been guilty of pushing too hard at times in qualifying in the past, not least of all here in 2019, when he stuffed his Ferrari into a wall in Q2 having been fastest in Q1. However, this season, he has recovered from any errors and is the undoubted King of Qualifying. In terms of continuing the trend for a different pole sitter, that looks unlikely.

2022 Azerbaijan GP Tips: 2 points Charles Leclerc to be fastest qualifier @ 2.15 SportingIndex

With the trend for chaotic races here, the chances of the sixth different race winner in Baku is much more of a live chance, and we have a number of credible candidates as well as the chance of a total random.

Of the drivers at the top of the market, we have Max Verstappen looking for his first win here. It was almost in the bag last year, but it is never over till it’s over here. Max has won four of the seven races in 2022 and is the favourite to win another this weekend. The track looks to be Red Bull friendly, which has rarely been the case, and so long as he can keep it clean and enjoy better luck than 2021, he has an excellent chance.

Sergio Perez is not without a chance on a track where he goes well. He is in a good place with a win in Monaco under his belt and a nice new two-year contract in his pocket. He is a 7.00 shot and there are worse bets, but Verstappen remains the faster driver, and Perez is still the teams second string.

2022 Azerbaijan GP Tips: 2 points Max Verstappen to win @ 2.25 with Skybet, SpreadEx, Unibet

At Ferrari, Carlos Sainz is still looking at getting his first GP win. He lacks the one lap pace of his teammate but that is not so important here. Getting to the finish of the race is the first job, and he is good at that. He has a reasonable track record, and he ticks the boxes that say the race could fall his way. Being around, near the top of the pack here means you are in with a chance. However, his car will be vulnerable to attack by the Red Bulls. Sainz does need a bigger slice of good fortune to win, but this is a circuit where he could get it.

Charles Leclerc is the second favourite and his claims for a win are only a little better than those of Sainz. Leclerc is likely to start from pole again, but his conversion rate hasn’t been great, and his odds are just 3.00. He was on pole last year and lead the opening couple of laps before Hamilton just blasted past him on the long straight.

2022 Azerbaijan GP: Side Markets

Outside of the drivers from the top two teams we have to cast the net a little wider for a possible surprise. Of the non-pole sitters to win here, one started 10th, one 6th and the other 2nd. That brings in drivers like Lando Norris for McLaren. He has had four top 8 qualifying performances so far and finished 8th and 5th here on his two starts.

His car doesn’t have the pure performance to beat the top two teams, but just being around at the end can bring great rewards here. The problem is that his odds are cramped. He is just 2.00 for a top 6 finish and there is little value there.

Valtteri Bottas has picked up three top 6 finishes this season, and he goes well here. He is a 2.25 shot for another and again there is not a lot of value there. His Alfa Romeo is not very reliable and they always seem to be having problems in practice and miss a lot of track time. That just makes things more difficult for them and he will remain on the watch list for now.

Ocon Consistent

Fernando Alonso is a wise old fox and a bit like Vettel last year, has the wherewithal to take advantage of chaotic situations. He has started top 10 five times in 2022, but his race record has been disappointing. Teammate Ocon has been more consistent in the races and was sixth here in 2017.

Give him a decent car and he generally does a good job, and a safe pair of hands are often rewarded here. Ocon has finished in the top 8, five times this season and with a bit of luck, he could land his second top 6 of the season at decent odds. Guessing the Alpines potential is always a minefield but being there or thereabouts can pay dividends here.

2022 Azerbaijan GP Tips: 1 point Esteban Ocon to finish in the top 6 @ 7.00 with Hills

George Russell fits the bill of someone who could cash in this weekend as he is a driver who has finished every race in the top 5 and scored two podiums. It is hard to say how well his Mercedes will go, but so far, his race pace is best of the rest material. He is just 26.00 to win so that is all built into his odds.

The Mercedes was very fast on the straight in Spain, which bodes well for this track, but it is the rest of the lap which is the problem. The track is bumpy, and the Mercedes is a very stiffly sprung car. That affected them in Monaco, and it will be a problem again on this track. However, if it becomes a race of high attrition and multiple safety cars, Russell does have a chance, but the odds are poor.

Vettel Goes Well In Baku

Vettel has a good record here and while the Aston Martin is a poor car, he is able to make the most of whatever he has got in chaotic races. He has been doing OK in recent races with finishes of 8/17/11/10. That 17th was when he was taken out of the Miami GP late in the race by Schumacher. He was running ninth at that point, despite a pit lane start. I was considering a small bet on a top 6 finish @ 12.00, but I’ll take the lesser odds on a top 10 finish for bigger stakes.

2022 Azerbaijan GP Tips: 2 points Sebastian Vettel to finish in the points @ 2.50 with Unibet, Skybet

I haven’t mentioned the weather forecast so far, but that is because it looks set to be very warm, mostly sunny and windy for the whole weekend. Rain is not on the menu.

-JamesPunt