2022 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Update and Tips – JP
2022 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Update and Preview
James Punt couldn’t have made a better start in Qualifying. Now, it is time for his 2022 Azerbaijan GP Raceday update.
Yesterday was a great example of how a lap time can be achieved by two different means. On this track, the long flat-out sector between turn 16 and turn 1, some 2km long, is where the overtaking is done, where the racing is largely done and where the race is likely to be won and lost. The rest of the lap is about keeping out of trouble. In qualifying, the whole lap counts, and we saw yesterday some cars building their lap time around the long flat-out blast, others getting the rest of the lap right.
McLaren tried to get a god grid position by having a car that was better in the slower sectors, Alpine one that was very fast down the long straight. Alonso qualified 10th, Norris 11th, Ricciardo 12th and Ocon 13th. Nothing much between them in the end.
Alpine Pacy
However, with overtaking much easier down the straight, I’d want to be in the Alpine over a race distance. Alonso topped the speed trap figures at 323.6 kph, Ricciardo was slowest of all at 310.0 kph. Ocon 323.1 kph, Norris 310.5 kph. The two teams occupy four consecutive grid spaces but got there by very different paths.
Of the top teams at the front, Red Bull pursued a faster on the straight policy, that is their car’s natural strength, and while Ferrari tried to max their straight-line performance, they trail Red Bull. Not by a huge margin in the end, but Red Bull will have a few KMH come the end of the straight.
High Speeds
Of course, this race is known for not running to any plan. Any crashes, and their usually are a few, usually require a safety car, at least. The speeds are high and debris tends to disperse over the track and that can require a red flag to clean up. You do not want shards of carbon fibre all over what is a very fast track, otherwise you get lots of punctures, which of course, has been something of a party piece at Baku.
It is all very well having a plan but what you really need is luck and the ability to think on your feet in rapidly changing circumstances. Some teams are better than that than others, and the ones in the red overalls are not the best.
That said, you still need a car that is effective on the track, and having good top speed is very useful here.
Leclerc Delivers Again
Charles Leclerc assumed his rightful place at the front of the grid, claiming his sixth pole position of the season. He has converted two if his previous five into wins, and none of the last three. Leclerc could equal the record of most consecutive pole positions without a win if he fails to convert today.
He was beaten fair and square in Miami, the Red Bull was too quick on the straights there. His car broke down in Spain when looking vey much in control, and the team screwed up the strategy in the wet/drying conditions in Monaco. The driver has done little wrong.
Today he has track position on a track where it is not worth anything like as much as at Barcelona or Monaco. He doesn’t have a car to fight the Red Bulls down the straight and unless he can open up a big enough lead over the rest of the lap, he will find it difficult to defend in the straight. A bit like Miami. And even if he could, it is likely that safety cars or red flags will just bunch up the field and give the Bulls another chance.
Perez The Biggest Threat?
Perhaps the question we should be asking is which Red Bull will be the most likely to be attacking Leclerc? From what we have seen so far, it may be Perez. He has been faster in each session so far and this is a track on which he has performed very well on the past, better than Verstappen and in lesser machinery.
The question is if Red Bull really want him to be the lead Red Bull. They have invested heavily in Verstappen and while they need Perez to maximise his points scored for the Constructors Championship, ideally he does it by finishing second to Verstappen’s first. Perez has already had one message to let Max past this season, so using the argument that it is too early for team orders a bit weak.
What the team really need to avoid, is a repeat of the time Ricciardo crashed into Verstappen when both were racing for Red Bull, putting both out of the race approaching turn one.
Who knows. We have pinned our bet to Verstappen ante post at 2.25 and he goes off 2.60. Fingers crossed.
Chaos
This race does tend towards chaos and it may be worth throwing some lose change at an outsider and hope to get lucky. The Alpine’s are interesting. They have clearly gone for a good race set up in terms of top speed, first and third through the speed trap. The problem is that meant giving up grid position and Alonso starts 10th and Ocon 13th. We have a bet on Ocon for top 6 already but just in case we get another strange one, a small tickle on Alonso to do a Ricciardo and win the Azerbaijan GP from 10th on the grid.
2022 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Fernando Alonso to win the Azerbaijan GP @ 151.00 generally available
Another team that has gone well, so far is Alpha Tauri, qualifying 6th and 8th, but they have gone the higher drag route, slower on the straight. That may backfire in the race. Alpha Tauri, Mercedes and McLaren, all Mercedes powered, were the slowest six cars in the speed trap. It may pay to look to oppose them. Ladbrokes have a match bet with Gasly to beat Hamilton.
Gasly has been faster than Hamilton in three of the four timed sessions and faster through the speed trap. The Mercedes is usually a better race car than qualifier, but it has looked particularly difficult this weekend. Hamilton says he has tried everything, but just can’t get the car to handle well. He was slower than Russell again and his motivation must be waning. This has never been a good track for him and Gasly will be the hungrier of the two, and he pulled off a podium finish last year. He looks to have some value at the odds.
2022 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to beat Hamilton @ 2.35 with Ladbrokes
Winner without the ‘Big 6’ sees Gasly as favourite. He starts 6th, Tsunoda 8th, but perhaps the best of the rest might come from Alonso or Vettel, first and second respectively through the speed trap. Vettel starts ninth, Alonso tenth. We have already backed Vettel to finish in the points and now Alonso for the win. Putting too many eggs in one basket rarely goes well, so I will skip that one.
Perez is on a roll, faster than Max in the last eight nine times sessions this season which makes him not only a threat to Verstappen, but also Leclerc. He will be doing Max a favour by beating Leclerc, never mind where Max finishes. Perez and Leclerc have been trading fastest times all weekend and in terms of race pace, I fancy Red Bull to prevail.
2022 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Perez to beat Leclerc @ 2.45 with Unibet
Unibet also have a group bet which looks interesting. Ocon in the Alpine is grouped with Ricciardo, Bottas and Magnussen. We have backed Ocon for top 6 but I’ll risk doubling up on him. He has the fastest car in a straight line, tends to get the car home and looks to be a bit of value to win his group.
