2022 Bahrain GP Preview and Tips

The first race of any season is always much anticipated but, in a year when we have such dramatic regulation changes, it is even more so. First up this season is the 2022 Bahrain GP. Check out James’ outright preview here.

We have had three days of testing on this track last week, so we do have some guide as to the pecking order, but now is the acid test. Who will be fastest, have the teams made progress in addressing the porpoising problems, what is reliability like and how will the new tyres perform over a race distance? We will get some of the answers, but it will take a few more races before the picture is clear.

Past Form Not As Important

Looking at past form carries less weight than usual because the cars are so different, but drivers who have enjoyed success at a track do look forward to returning there. Drivers who have good records in Bahrain since the start of the turbo hybrid era are Hamilton, with five race wins including the last three and he has always finished on the podium.

Lando Norris had finished fourth for the last two years and sixth on debut. Daniel Ricciardo has a steady record here with six top seven finishes, and Pierre Gasly who has finished fourth, eighth and sixth before retiring late in last year’s race, having qualified fifth.

The market for the first race is always a hard one for the bookmakers to price up, they are as much in the dark as anyone, and mistakes may be made. At first glance, the market looks different to the one we had become accustomed to over the last few years. For starters, Lewis Hamilton is not the odds-on favourite, indeed he is not even the favourite. He is second favourite but according to his own words, his Mercedes is not yet ready to win races.

Max The Fav

The favourites tag goes to Max Verstappen. He was quickest at last week’s test here. Ferrari had been on everyone’s lips as the team to beat right up to the final day, when Red Bull unveiled their latest update on the car, and it went straight to the top of the time sheets, on the medium tyres, with Perez at the wheel. His time was beaten later in the day by Verstappen on the soft and in better track conditions.

There are the usual caveats about testing, especially over fuel loads and engine modes. Cynics can say that Red Bull ran light, turned the modes up and that is why they got the time. The thing is, that Red Bull do not need to showboat, they have little to gain by creating a false picture.

Haas on the other hand were setting the fastest time on the second day, but it is likely they were running under weight and with the power unit turned up to 11. It gave the team members a little boost after a pointless 2021 season. It may have caught the eye of a sponsor looking to get a bit of F1 exposure, but it isn’t really fooling anyone. That is not to say Haas have not improved, but nobody is expecting them on the podium come Sunday.

Educated Guess

While we do not know the true form of all the teams, we can make an educated guess as to who was where at the end of last week’s test but we will have a much better idea after qualifying on Saturday.

Mercedes fans will be hoping that their team will have found a solution, or at least a partial one, for what was clearly an ill handling car. It was one of the worst cars when it came to porpoising and not just on the straights. There was a lot of understeer and it visibly looked hard to drive. We were in a similar position last year and Mercedes turned up and won, albeit by the thinnest of margins. If you think Mercedes were sandbagging, or will have found a fix, you can get 4.00 for Hamilton to make it four Bahrain GPs in a row.

Reliability

The race will be interesting in terms of reliability. We have become accustomed to modern F1 cars running like clockwork. The days of exploding engines and broken gearboxes had all but gone in recent years. However, the last big regulation shake up in 2014, the introduction of the turbo hybrid power units, did see a lot of unreliability. We had five DNF’s here in 2014 (it wasn’t the first race) but in the last three years, there have been just five in total. If the cars are still going to be bouncing down the straight then car damage becomes more likely.

There are a few teams who are not confident of finishing the race on Sunday. Alfa Romeo have suffered with lots of problems, which they have fixed, but then along comes another. Haas had plenty of problems at the first test in Barcelona. Alpine blew a power unit and McLaren had chronic front brake problems last week. Williams missed almost a whole day after a fire damaged the car and they are saying that they are worried about the tyres. Williams did not take part in the tyres test at the end of last season, and now regret it, saying that they are lacking enough data to really understand how they are going to behave.

To finish first, first you must finish is not a saying we have heard in F1 for a while, but it is very applicable this weekend.

Will the New regs work?

And then there is the small matter of finding out if these regulations achieve what is hoped for, better, closer racing with more over taking. What will be the implication for qualifying? The last eight years have been about getting on pole and dominating from the front. Mercedes built cars that were super-fast over a single lap and could dominate from the front, but if they followed other cars, they could struggle just like everyone else. Now, the cars should be able to follow and pass which should mean the premium on qualifying is reduced, on most tracks at least.

From what was gathered in the Bahrain test, there are not many saying that Red Bull are not the team to beat. Fast, reliable and looking much more comfortable to drive than most. Verstappen is the 3.00 favourite to finally get a win here in Bahrain, after finishing second for the last two years. Perez has never enjoyed much joy on this layout outside of a third place in 2014 and he can be backed at 23.00.

Lewis Hamilton is the second favourite in the market at 4.00 and George Russell 13.00 to get his full-time career at Mercedes off to a dream start. Both drivers have been very clear that their lack of pace in testing was not sandbagging, but down to the fact that it handles poorly and the only effective fix to the porpoising problem, makes the car lose downforce.

Ferrari Second Best?

Most observers have Ferrari as the second-best car and when they finally unleash their redesigned power unit, we will see their true potential. Leclerc looked like he was heading for a win here in 2019 before a mechanical problem forced him to slow and fall back to third place. That was the year when Ferrari had the best, if a bit illegal, power unit.

If they regain that status, they have a car which was handling well in practice and a podium finish is the least expected for Ferrari this weekend. Carlos Sainz has a hate/hate relationship with this track. He failed to score a single point in his first six races here and only managed fifth and eighth in the last two years. Leclerc is the 6.50 third favourite, Sainz 9.00.

2022 Bahrain GP: Best of The Rest

Outside of ‘The Big Three’ the pecking order really is open to debate. McLaren have a good car; the Mercedes power unit and it was reasonably quick until they arrived in the hot conditions here in Bahrain. They then discovered that their front brakes ran far too hot, and they couldn’t complete any long runs. They have had a week to find and manufacture a solution. The question is, is that enough time to find a proper fix?

If you think it is, then Norris can be backed at 29.00 with three places each way. He has just missed out on the podium twice here and he did plenty of laps last week, albeit in short runs, after Ricciardo was ruled out by Covid. The Aussie has now passed his covid tests and will be driving this weekend.

His problem is that he has had just one and half days of preseason testing, followed by being laid low by the virus. He was poorly and for all that is said that Covid just a cold these days, he is unlikely to be feeling 100%. That reflected in odds of 61.00. His record here is steady with six top seven finishes but never a podium.

Aston Martin Questions To Answer

Aston Martin have left everyone scratching their heads a bit. They have a good looking car and aspire to greatness, but outside of a decent long run by Vettel here last week, they didn’t show much. Some observers say that there is pace there, others that this is not a great car.

There was nothing to suggest that Aston Martin are anything more than one of the midfielders but they ran reliably and that may be rewarded with some points on Sunday. Vettel is a four time winner here but pointless for the last two. Stroll’s tenth place last year was his best result. As of 10am Thursday morning, Sebastian Vettel will not be driving this weekend.

He too has been infected by Covid and will be replaced by super-sub, Nico Hulkenberg. The Hulk will have done some simulator work, but he has not driven the actual car yet. At least he will get three, hour long practice sessions before qualifying, but it is not an ideal start for Aston Martin, or Vettel.

Hulkenberg stood in at Force India under similar circumstances in 2020. His car failed before the start of the British GP but he finished in the points in the two other races as a substitute. His record in Bahrain in the turbo Hybrid era is OK, with three points finishes.

Alpine Under The Radar at the 2022 Bahrain GP

Alpine are another team who went under the radar in testing. They had reliability problems at Barcelona, but they ran better in Bahrain. Alonso set the fourth best time of the test which offers some hope, but there remains some concern about their new power units. How reliable will they be when they get turned up? The team say they should make into Q3 which hardly smacks of any great expectations. Alonso has struggled here in recent years and Ocon has never finished better than ninth.

Alpha Tauri Solid

Alpha Tauri got Tsunoda home in ninth place last year on debut, and Gasly qualified fifth. This is a team that always garners their fair share of points and they have another car that looks like it will do the usual solid, midfield role, picking up good points on occasion. Gasly is an asset while Tsunoda started brightly in 2021 before fizzling out for most of the season. The Japanese driver may find himself under pressure now that Honda are now officially out of the sport. Alpha Tauri completed the third highest amount of pre-season laps so are reliable and have lots of data to fine tune their car.

Alfa Romeo Reliability Issues

Alfa Romero have a good looking car but one that was a bucking bronco in Barcelona. That lead to the car breaking bits and having lots of reliability problems. It wasn’t much better in Bahrain when Bottas had to stop early on two of the days. When it runs, it has shown decent pace, but there were too many problems to have much faith in their chances at this stage.

Bottas was a podium regular for Mercedes but any points this weekend will be seen as a big result. Zhou got more miles completed than Bottas and for the only rookies in the field, it is good for him to make his debut on a trach where he has tested just a week ago.

Haas Attracting Attention

Haas are a team that people are talking about again. Not for all the right reasons. They had to terminate the deal with their main sponsor and find a new driver at short notice, but the car looks much better than last year’s uncompetitive effort.

They put in some glory runs in Bahrain, but reliability wasn’t as good as they need. A team like Haas best chances can come in the early races when others unreliability can present opportunities to score points. Being reliable is a must for these limited teams and they may miss out if they have more problems.

Haas are also taking some flack for their increasingly close relationship with Ferrari. They have their own office at Maranello, employ former Ferrari staff and share the wind tunnel. With Ferrari getting less wind tunnel time than Haas, you can see that Ferrari might want Haas to have a look at some concepts that Ferrari may also benefit from.

Ferrari Power Unit

Having use of the new Ferrari power unit and gearbox could be a considerable asset this season. If they can find good reliability, scoring points is not out of the question. Magnussen finished fifth here in 2018, Grosjean eighth in 2017 and fifth in 2016. Only once in their six races here, have they got both cars to the finish.

Williams looked to have a nice car when it hit the track in Barcelona. Many people said nice things about it. It looked like it was behaving itself and handling well. But as the testing went on, Williams faded into the background and most observers have them as this year’s backmarker, at least for now.

2022 Bahrain GP: Ante Post Selections

There are two ways to go about the first race. Get stuck into any odds that look wrong early or hold fire until after qualifying. By waiting until after qualifying you will know more about pace but will be taking shorter odds while still fretting over reliability.

2022 Bahrain GP Race Winner

We went for Max Verstappen this time last year, for much the same reason as this year. Mercedes had struggled in testing and Red Bull looked to have the better car. In the end, Hamilton won by 0.7 seconds from Verstappen. That the track limits enforcement was very Hamilton friendly was the difference in the end.

Hamilton was leaving the track limits at turn 6 (?) and gaining a little time, Verstappen didn’t. Red Bull then asked if they were allowed to exceed the track limits at the same place, the stewards said no, and then told Mercedes to stop, but Hamilton had already picked a reasonable chunk of time. But for that, Verstappen would have won.

That said, Mercedes had made improvements and were closer than expected, and we should assume that will be the case again. But will it be enough to make them potential race winners? I doubt it. Red Bull will not have been twiddling their thumbs for the last week and they should be faster still. I’ll take Verstappen to land his first Bahrain GP and Red Bulls first since 2013.

2022 Bahrain GP Tip: 2 points Max Verstappen to win the Bahrain GP @ 3.00 with SpreadEx

We must expect the top 6 to be filled by the big three teams but this being the season opener, we might get a bit of unreliability which may let in one of the midfielders. Last year it was Norris in the McLaren finishing fourth for the second year in succession. He is 2.50 to get another top 6 and the car looks good enough to do it, if McLaren has fixed the brake problem. If they have not perhaps the dependable Gasly could do it for the third time? The Alpha Tauri was very reliable in testing and while the car may not have the pace of McLaren, I fancy them to be more reliable, and that counts in the first race.

2022 Bahrain GP Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to finish in the top 6 @ 2.75 with Skybet, Ladbrokes

I quite like the chances of Haas getting a car home in the points. With question marks over other runners, if they can run reliably, they could do it. Their Ferrari look alike is far from the old hack they ran with last year and they are team not without success here in the past. If they are to do it, which driver is the more likely? Mick Schumacher never managed a podium here in the junior Formula but Magnussen finished fifth here in 2018. He may not have as much time in the car as Schumacher, but he is a more experienced driver.

2022 Bahrain GP Tip: 1 point Kevin Magnussen to finish in the points @ 3.50 with Ladbrokes

There will be an update on Sunday, around an hour before the start of the race.

-JamesPunt