2022 Bahrain GP Raceday Update and Tips – JP
2022 Bahrain GP Raceday Update
Well that wasn’t a bad start to the season for James Punt’s followers in qualifying. He advised Charles Leclerc to take pole position and he did just that. A lovely winner advised at odds of 9/2. Today’s race starts at 3pm GMT and it should be an intriguing afternoon. Check out James’ 2022 Bahrain GP Raceday Update and Tips below.
2022 Bahrain GP Raceday Update
Qualifying was interesting, showing us the relative pace of the cars, but today is the important bit. Today we learn about their relative race pace, how these new design of tyres behave over a race distance, who is reliable and who is not, and does the new design of the cars really allow for closer racing.
In terms of pace, it is clear, as was the case in testing, that Red Bull and Ferrari are the top two teams. It is harder to say who is third, or fourth, or fifth and so on. Williams is last.
It is clear that the new Ferrari power unit is as good as was being rumoured. Anyone running it has benefitted, no more so than Haas and Alfa Romero. Charles Leclerc qualified on pole, 0.126 ahead of Verstappen who in turn was just 0.006 ahead of the other Ferrari of Carlos Sainz. Sergio Perez in the second Red Bull completes the second row 0.363 slower than Leclerc.
Mercedes Off The Pace
Lewis Hamilton did well to get his Mercedes into fifth place, but nearly 0.70 slower than the pole position. The bad news for him is that the Mercedes long run pace is slower than its one lap pace. He is not in the frame for a podium, unless the cars in front have problems.
The long runs on Friday will encourage Verstappen that he has the fastest car in terms of high fuel race pace. Also encouraging is that in the last eight years, the pole position driver here has only won three times. The second placed driver has won three times and third, twice. Clearly it is not a come from behind track, but with the new regulations, that may change. However, the front two teams are so far ahead that those behind just do not have the pace to compete.
Bottas in sixth place was over a second off pole position pace. If the chasing pack was say 0.2 or 0.3 behind, we might see them giving chase and finding out if it really will be easier to follow, race and pass the car in front. The only racing at the front will be between the Ferrari’s and Red Bulls.
Battle Hardened Red Bull
Red Bull are battle hardened, used to running at or near the front and winning races. Ferrari had five podiums in 2021, three in 2020. However, you must go back 45 races since they won a grand prix. It has traditionally been a weakness that Ferrari are a bit flaky on the pit wall. If it comes down to a strategic battle, you have to fancy Red Bull to win it.
We have backed Verstappen to win the race at 3.00. He is now the 2.25 favourite and that looks about right. Leclerc is 2.75 for the win, Sainz 9.00 and Perez a dismissive 21.00. The Mexican has never been on the pace of the front three and would look to be out of the frame, unless tyre wear becomes a bigger issue than expected.
One regulation change that had escaped my attention, is that all the drivers are free to choose what tyres they want to start the race on. Previously, the top 10 had to start on the tyres they had used in Q2 but those outside the top 10 had a free choice. It was a good rule and gave those outside the top 10 a chance to run a different strategy and make up places. Now, everyone is in the same boat. That doesn’t mean we will see everyone start on the same compound, but most will, and it will likely be the soft compound.
Pit Stop Strategy
Bahrain has traditionally been a two stop race and we might see a few drivers maybe starting on the hard and trying to make it a one stop race, but the numbers will have been crushed and the same conclusions raced. These new Pirelli tyres are supposed to be more durable so maybe a few drivers might roll the dice and try something different.
The three drivers at the front all have a new set of soft tyres available, as do Magnussen and Alonso, but Perez, Hamilton and Bottas do not. They will have to start on used tyres which won’t be as quick and won’t last as long. Russell and Gasly make up the top ten and they too have no new softs left.
Magnussen To Go Well
We backed Kevin Magnussen to finish in the points, but maybe that was a little conservative. This Ferrari derived car is quick and with a bit of luck he may be able to match his 5th place finish of 2018. Ahead of him in 6th is Valtteri Bottas. He out qualified the second Mercedes of George Russell. Mr. Saturday did not live up to his moniker yesterday, making a mistake at the first corner and ruining his lap. He had been fourth in every session up to that point and he will be looking to make up some places. The problem is that his race pace doesn’t look great, compared to the top 4.
No doubt Bottas, in his new Alfa Romeo, with Ferrari power will be looking at Lewis Hamilton and thinking, I’ll have you. He is not constrained by team orders, and he will be giving it full beans in an attempt to get one over his old team. The big worry for him is reliability. His car is good but has been notoriously unreliable in pre-season testing. The Haas has not been bullet proof either and Magnussen even had a problem in qualifying yesterday. Fingers crossed on that one.
Bahrain GP Raceday Update: 0.5 point Valtteri Bottas to be the first driver to retire @ 17.00 with Hills, Skybet
It is hard to say if any of the drivers are really out of position on the grid. George Russell is one who is. He really dropped the ball in qualifying and will be looking to make up for that. He says his Mercedes is faster than the three cars in front of him, so he will be looking to test out whether following and passing cars really will be easier. Overtaking will be possible, and he should be looking at the top 6.
Bahrain GP Raceday Update: 1 point George Russell to finish in the top 6 @ 2.20 with BET365
The points finish market is worth looking at. There is no longer the advantage of those outside the top ten having the advantage of a free choice on tyres, which is a shame, but there might be a car who is going to make good progress.
Esteban Ocon has had to run without the latest body work after it failed on his car on Friday. That may have prevented him from joining Alonso in the top 10 yesterday. He starts from the clean side of the track and on new soft tyres, so he has a good chance to make up a place or two at the start. Alonso showed that the car has top 10 pace (with the latest bodywork) and Ocon must be in with a chance. The reliability of the cars ahead may mean he inherits a top finish. He is 1.91 to do so with Ladbrokes but perhaps Mick Schumacher is better value at 2.50.
Schumacher Haas Pace
Schumacher was 8th quickest in the representative FP2 session so, the car might just be better suited to cooler conditions under the lights. The Haas has the pace to be top 10 and while Schumacher has never been anything special here and is relatively inexperienced, he will be more comfortable after three days testing and three practice sessions on the same track. He starts from the ‘wrong side of the track, but with the powerful Ferrari power unit, he should have the ability to overtake during the race. I may be pushing having backed Magnussen already, as Haas have only ever had two cars reaching the finish here before.
Bahrain GP Raceday Update: 1 point Mick Schumacher to finish in the points @ 2.50 with Betvictor
Yuki Tsunoda finished in the points here last year and while that may be hard to repeat from 16th. He missed FP3 with a car problem and the car has been struggling a bit when it gets cooler. He isn’t expecting an easy race. He is the favourite to win Unibet’s Group 4, where he is joined by with Albon, Stroll and Latifi. The problem is who to oppose him with?
Stroll is the obvious choice. He has always been a good starter and the car, while suffering with porpoising more than most, has been quick at times, but those times were when the track was hot. Sadly, there is nothing easy here. Albon was happy with qualifying 14th in the Williams. That was better than he expected and he was saying that the car felt good in qualifying.
It had been pretty rubbish up to that point, so he may have found something in his set up. The group is not one of any great quality and it is trying to pick the one who is least bad. At least Albon starts at the front of the group and he is the selection.
