2022 Belgian GP Preview

Before looking at this weekend’s race, the 2022 Belgian GP, I’ll have a quick refresher on the season so far and the relative form of the teams and drivers before the summer break.

The Story So Far

Red Bull – 431 points

97 points clear of second placed Ferrari in the constructor’s championship and Verstappen is 80 points clear of Leclerc in the driver’s championship. Verstappen has won seven of the last ten races. Perez is third in the championship, just 5 points behind Leclerc. It is all looking good for Red Bull and their drivers, although Perez is doing no more than OK.

Red Bull will be introducing an all new chassis, a lightweight chassis, to knock some 8kg off the car’s weight and it is expected to be worth 0.3 – 0.4 seconds, which is a very decent chunk of time. It will need to pass the FIA crash tests and it is not yet clear when it will be introduced. When it is, expect the Bulls to be even more competitive, especially in qualifying.

Ferrari – 334 Points

Arguably have the fastest car, but that is not enough. Leclerc has claimed seven pole positions (but only one of the last five). He has only managed to win three races and only one of the last ten. Carlos Sainz is in fifth place, overtaken by George Russell after the Hungarian GP. Between the two drivers, they have suffered seven DNF’s.

Another season of underachievement for the once great team, but the reality is that while Ferrari are the masters of almost being great, they rarely actually achieve it. This year has seen unreliability, driver errors and a stunning level of strategic incompetence. Their stock continues to fall. Sainz has picked up his form after struggling with the car early in the season and he has finished ahead of Leclerc in six of the last eight races.

Mercedes – 304 Points

Finally appear to have got their act together after a poor first half of the season. The car has been too slow to compete for race wins but it is a reliable machine, and the pace is now being unleashed. Russell is fourth in the championship and qualified on pole position at the last race in Hungary. That definitely was a surprise as the team had only achieved two seconds rows from the preceding twelve races.

They are getting closer to winning on merit, but they have been flattered by the poor performance of Ferrari. They are just 30 points behind Ferrari in the constructor’s championship and I would say favourites to finish in second place.

Russell leads Hamilton by 12 points, but the inter-team momentum is with Hamilton, who has scored more points than anyone bar Verstappen in the last five races. He has enjoyed five consecutive podium finishes and two fastest laps in the last five. His qualifying pace remains disappointing, and the car does have the tendency to struggle to get the tyres up to temperature, making qualifying more difficult. Their race pace is much more competitive. Very much a Sunday team.

Alpine – 99 Points

Just have the edge in their battle for 4th place with McLaren. The main difference being that Alpine have two drivers who are scoring points, with Esteban Ocon getting the lion’s share. Alonso has better qualifying pace, but Ocon has got the better race results. Alonso is on a run of eight consecutive top 10 finishes and the team have enjoyed six double points finishes from the last eight races.

The last five races have seen an Alpine in the top 6 four times. Solid, if unspectacular, and the summer break saw Alonso announce that he will be driving for Aston Martin next year. A sign that all is not well at Alpine, or that he was made an offer he couldn’t refuse? I suspect the latter.

McLaren – 95 Points

It was a disappointing first half for McLaren and the lack of form for Daniel Ricciardo is largely to blame. Norris has scored 76 points to Ricciardo’s 19 and he will not be driving for the team next season. Norris is in seventh place in the championship and finished the last three races in seventh place, and that sums him and McLaren up.

Alfa Romeo – 51 Points

44 points adrift of McLaren and sinking fast. The team have failed to score a point in the last four races and unreliability is hurting them badly. Bottas’ average qualifying position has dropped 2.4 places across the last seven races, so it is not just unreliability which is hurting them. Zhou is showing some improved pace in qualifying, but he has just two top ten finishes all season.

Haas – 34 Points

Outperforming some bigger teams despite failing to develop their car for most of the season. A team for whom the cost cap is a target rather than a limiting factor, they are punching above their weight. Magnussen is a solid performer and Schumacher is now finding his feet in F1.

There is tension between Schumacher and the team. They have invited Antonio Giovinazzi to drive the car in two FP1 sessions before the end of the season. That is seen as a warning to Schumacher that he is not guaranteed a seat for 2023. Their target for the rest of the season is to keep hold of seventh place and they might just do it. Schumacher will get the Haas upgrade this weekend after Magnussen debuted it in Hungary before the break.

Alpha Tauri – 27 Points

Up there with McLaren in terms of having a disappointing season. The Red Bull B team usually get a few great results across a season, but this year a fifth place in Azerbaijan is their best and they have not scored a point in the last five races.

Aston Martin – 20 Points

Ninth place is a huge disappointment for this ambitious team. They are, however, strangely dependable. Their qualifying pace is poor, only Williams are worse, but come Sunday and they usually drag one of their cars into the top 10, and at decent odds. Vettel is retiring at the end of the year, and he is now free to just enjoy driving an F1 car for the next few months. Expect more, regular, minor points scoring races.

Williams – 3 Points

New ownership hasn’t managed to change the team’s usual position at the bottom of the table. No points from the last eight races suggests that they are not getting any better but Albon’s qualifying pace in the last five races has seen some improvement. Latifi is likely to be out at the end of the season and rightly so.

Red Bull The team To Beat

Red Bull remain the team to beat, Mercedes are the most improved and Ferrari are a shambles, but we can now say we have a big three once again. Alpine and McLaren are fighting to be the best of the rest. Both teams are carrying a driver who will not be there next season and that can be a demotivating factor.

They will be expected to perform to their best, but at the same time, kept much in the dark as to car developments. Alfa Romeo and Alpha Tauri seem to have hit a brick wall and that gives Aston Martin some hope that they could improve on their lowly ninth place.

With nine races to go the things to watch for are Mercedes closing down Ferrari for second place and probably picking up a win or two. The Alpine – McLaren battle will continue to be close, but Alpine look the likely winner, while in the lower midfield, Aston Martin will remain a team to follow on race days at least.

The 2022 Belgian GP

We start the remainder of the season with a regulation change. The FIA have finally acted to reduce the potential for injury to drivers from the violent bouncing or porpoising of the ground effect cars.

A new metric (the vertical oscillation metric) has been outlined that will be used to define an acceptable level of porpoising, with teams having to stay within the limits from this weekend’s race onwards. The teams have been aware of the new regs and have been able to use the metric to understand if they will need to make any changes, but now they will be enforced.

Floor Flexibility

Also, new floor flexibility tests will be introduced, with the FIA announcing “changes to re-define the stiffness requirements of plank and skids around the thickness measurement holes”. This is designed to target any floor-related wizardry that some suspect could be trying to get around the intention of the regulations.

The floor is a critical performance generator, so it will be interesting to see if it affects the competitive order. Fingers have been pointed at possible suspects. Mercedes hinting that Red Bull have been at it, Red Bull denying it. Ferrari have said that they will have to make some changes, so they might have been.

Mercedes were the team most badly affected by porpoising and it will be interesting to see if they are forced to run the car in a way that means they are within the parameters of acceptable porpoising, but outside of the best setup for performance. The team are adamant that they have all but sorted out their bouncing problems and if so, their return to competitiveness should not be affected. This track will be the acid test for those claims and if they are still bouncing, they could be hoisted by their own petard.

The Weather

The USP of this track is often the weather. Set in the Ardennes mountains, there is a microclimate here which makes accurate weather forecasting difficult. Over the years I have learned one good guide. If there are clouds around, it will probably rain.

The forecasts for this weekend are as mixed as usual and many posts on twitter have shown apps saying it will be wet on Saturday and Sunday. That looks unlikely and at this stage I am going for a warm weekend with the highest chance of rain being on Friday, and that will be some sunshine and showers, not the persistent rain which caused the farce that was the ‘race’ here last year.

2022 Belgian GP – the Circuit

Regarded as an old school classic track, Spa-Francorchamps is a fast, 7 km long, sinuous track with plenty of elevation changes and corners which require big balls. It is hugely popular with the drivers and fans alike, but this might be the last time we race here for the foreseeable future.

There is no contract in place after this weekend’s race and with the sport’s owners focusing on getting as many American races crammed into the calendar as possible, a South African GP on the way and a return to China and Qatar, some existing tracks will have to be dropped from the rota. France has gone, which is no great loss, but popular or not, Spa is in the crosshairs. It doesn’t have the ability to match the hosting fees paid by the new US circuits or the Middle Eastern tracks.

A Driver’s Track

This is a driver’s track (Senna, Schumacher, Clark, Raikkonen and Hamilton have had 23 wins between them) and drivers with good track records in the turbo hybrid era include Lewis Hamilton, who has only missed the podium once since 2014, Ricciardo a winner in 2014 with two more podiums, Bottas with four podiums, Ocon with three top nines, Albon with a fifth and sixth and Gasly with three consecutive top nines. I have not included last years ‘race’ results as it wasn’t a race.

Leclerc has one win but that was his only points finish, while Vettel is another winner. Perez has the usual collection of top 6s and only once out of the top 10. One driver who has not enjoyed Spa very much is Carlos Sainz with just one point scored, three DNF’s and a DNS. Verstappen has had two third places but also two DNF’s.

Aston Martin Have History

Traditionally this was a very good track for Jordan/Force India (now Aston Martin). They had their first win here, their first pole position here and were regularly in the top 6. Whether that racing DNA will help Vettel and Stroll to get more points we shall have to wait and see, but don’t be surprised if they get a decent result. Vettel qualified 5th for Aston Martin last year.

The track has seen some changes since last year. With one eye on losing their F1 races, the track owners have modernised it to make it suitable for bike racing. There are now new kerbs and gravel traps in place and there are concerns that this will introduce a greater chance of punctures. Much of the track has been resurfaced, making tyre wear a bit of an unknown going into the weekend. Verstappen got a taste for the changes when he drove a 2011 Red Bull around the track a week ago.

Low Downforce Setup

A low downforce set up is the order of the day and power is rewarded on the long straights and fast corners. This is the second most power hungry circuit after Monza, so expect to see drivers who can do, take a new power unit come Saturday. The two Red Bulls and all the Mercedes powered cars (bar Norris) can take a new power unit without penalty.

Like Norris, Ocon, Gasly, Schumacher and Zhou are already on their third power unit so they will not have the luxury of a new one, unless they screw up qualifying and are starting at the back anyway. That is a bit of a blow for Ocon and Gasly, two drivers who go well here. Everybody else has already reached four power units and would be penalised for taking another.

Advantage Red Bull

The circuit should be a good one for Red Bull. They will likely have a fresh power unit and their car has been the fastest in a straight line all season. Ferrari have closed the gap, but there is still a small advantage for Red Bull. That advantage may shrink further as Ferrari have brought a new rear wing for this weekend and no doubt with one eye on Monza.

Ferrari should be quicker in the middle sector with its many corners, Red Bull faster in the first and third sectors with their emphasis on straight line performance. So, expect the two teams’ lap times to be very close as the middle sector accounts for around 50% of total lap time.

In terms of race performance, Red Bull have to get the nod. We have seen them lose out in qualifying for most of the season, but they have won nine of the thirteen races so far. Being faster at the end of the straights makes them hard to defend from. Ferrari have improved their straight-line performance, and it has been reported that they plan to introduce a modestly upgraded power unit this weekend, but the Bulls still have the edge, and that should be rewarded on this particular track.

New Regs To Help Mercedes?

Mercedes will be hoping that the new regulations will hurt Red Bull and Ferrari and we shall just have to wait and see. The changes were supposed to come in for the French GP, so all the teams have had some time to make any changes needed which should mitigate some loss of performance.

Russell qualified on pole in Hungary (and second here in the rain in last year’s Williams) and Hamilton finished the last race in second place. This is a very different track, and the Mercedes sweet spot is much smaller than Red Bull’s or Ferrari’s. If the track temperature is relatively low for qualifying, they may struggle with tyre temperatures, but it is Sunday that counts for them. Hamilton is motivated again and as Mercedes has scored 11 podiums this season, they have to be considered for a race win.

Hamilton In Form

Lewis Hamilton comes here on the back of five consecutive podiums, two consecutive second places and two fastest laps from the last four races. If the regulation changes do slow down Red Bull and Ferrari, and we can assume that was the aim as it has been Mercedes who have been pushing for it, then the remaining gap between Mercedes and the Big Two, could be narrowed. It is unlikely to mean another pole position, but race wise, it might be enough to give them a realistic chance of a win.

Hamilton has beaten Russell in the last five races and on a track where he is a proven specialist, this might be the race where Mercedes finally get back to winning ways. It would still require a faultless performance and giving away places at the start thanks to their poorer qualifying pace does make things harder, but the race pace is just about there.

This is a track where you can attack from behind and overtaking is possible. Defending on the long straights with the car behind having DRS will be hard, so qualifying is likely to be less important than at many tracks.

Verstappen deserves to be favourite, but there is enough value in Hamilton’s odds to have a reasonable bet on him.

2022 Belgian GP Tip: 2 points Lewis Hamilton to win @ 6.00 generally available

2022 Belgian GP: Side Markets

The most consistent qualifier of the season, Charles Leclerc is the 3.00 second favourite for pole position at the 2022 Belgian GP with Verstappen the 2.20 favourite. On the face of it, that 3.00 for Leclerc looks good value. However, his qualifying results more recently have tailed off with just one pole from the last five. He was taking a new PU in Canada which explains that one, but in the last four qualifying sessions have seen four different pole sitters, Verstappen, Sainz, Leclerc and Russell.

Sainz’s Spa Struggles

Sainz really does have a stinking record here, both in the race and in qualifying. His best qualifying result is a seventh in 2020 and he has only made Q3 twice in his seven attempts here. Leclerc got pole in 2019 but failed to reach Q3 in his other three. Verstappen got pole in the wet chaos last year but otherwise his qualifying here has been OK at best.

Russell got pole in Hungary and was second here last year, but Hungary is very different to Spa, and it was a freak session last year with rain, delays and a red flag. Hamilton has had four poles in the turbo hybrid era and has only once been outside the top 3 (that was due to him taking penalties for a new PU). He hasn’t threatened the front row in 2022 and with the Merc prone to tyre warm up problems in qualifying he may come up short again.

Fastest qualifier does look more open than it did in the first eight races of the season when it was Leclerc who had six poles. It looks like this is a market best left until Saturday.

Keep Alpine Onside

I have been keen to be onside with Alpine and Ocon in particular in recent races. The Anglo-French team have effectively been able to bring regular updates for their car and they have worked. Hedging against the energy price hikes early has freed up more of their budget for developments compared to most teams and they clearly understand the car and now to make it better.

They have had a double points finish in six of the last eight races, bettered only by Mercedes. Alpine have had a car in the top 6 in four of the last five races, two each for Ocon and Alonso. They need one or more of the top 6 drivers to have a problem but that has been a regular occurrence this season.

Ocon has improved his qualifying performance from an average of 8.87 in the first eight races, to 7.00 in the last five (excluding the season worst outlier of 15th in the rain at Silverstone). Ocon has finished sixth and fifth in his last two proper races here and qualified third for Force India in 2018. Alonso will be going for his ninth consecutive top 10 finish this weekend at the 2022 Belgian GP.

2022 Belgian GP Tip: 1 point Ocon to finish in the top 6 @ 3.25 generally available

2022 Belgian GP Tip: 1 point Double points finish for Alpine @ 1.80 with Betvictor, Skybet

Pierre Gasly has a good record here with three top 10s from his three proper races here. However, he has not scored a point in the last five races and the team look a bit lost at the moment.

Daniel Ricciardo, fresh from being sacked for 2023 by McLaren, has gone well here in the past and he has scored points from three of his last six races. How will he react to being put out of his misery? Will the pressure of trying to save his job ending free him up? Or will the pressure of trying to save his career just make things worse? He is a 2.20 shot for a top 10 finish and while there is a bit of value there, it is marginal.

There is little point in backing the Aston Martin drivers pre-qualifying and we can revisit the top 10 market again on Sunday.

High Attrition Rate

The attrition rate at Spa is fairly high at 3.67 in the turbo Hybrid era. Any crashes tend to be at speed and the first corner is a crash magnet on lap 1. We have seen some big pile ups here, wet or dry, and with these big, wide, heavy cars braking into a hairpin on cool tyres and brakes, another would be no surprise. The market seems to have this angle covered as well with under 17.5 classified finishers just 1.57.

That will have to be that for the ante post betting, but we will have an update for qualifying on Saturday and the race on Sunday.

-JamesPunt