2022 Belgian GP Raceday Update

Now, it’s time for James Punt’s 2022 Belgian GP Raceday update. You can check out his outright betting preview here.

2022 Belgian GP Raceday

The various penalties handed out after qualifying have given us what is effectively a reversed grid for today’s race. The fastest man in qualifying was Verstappen but he will have to start from 15th on the grid, alongside Leclerc in 16th. Ocon, 5th fastest in qualifying, starts 17th with Norris 18th.

The ‘winners’ from this situation are Alonso who moved up from 6th in qualifying to 3rd on the grid and the two Mercedes start 4th and 5th. Williams now has Alex Albon in 6th and Latifi in 11th. The two Aston Martins will line up 10th and 11th.

Mercedes Off The Pace

Our ante post bet on Lewis Hamilton received a great boost when Leclerc and Verstappen decided to take penalties for new power units but the sad fact is that Mercedes are miles away from the pace of the Red Bulls, Ferrari’s and even the Alpines. Their sweet spot is tiny, and they have not found it this weekend.

Their race pace is generally stronger than their qualifying pace, but Hamilton was over 1.8 seconds slower than Verstappen. George Russell has tipped up Verstappen to win ‘comfortably’, despite starting 15th. The weather will be a bit warmer today and there will be more sunshine to warm the track, which may help, but Hamilton needs divine intervention if he is to win today.

Verstappen was 0.632 faster than Carlos Sainz second place time, a huge margin, but remember that this is the longest track in F1 which makes the gaps bigger than would be the case at most tracks. Perhaps the biggest surprise is that Perez was not able to put his Red Bull ahead of Sainz. Clearly it is the Verstappen – Red Bull combination which is the fastest.

Verstappen Fav

Verstappen starts as the 2.50 favourite which is too short for a driver starting 15th. This is a track which allows overtaking but is also one which takes no prisoners, especially at the first corner on lap one. Verstappen thinks that the changes to the runoff area, replacing the tarmac with deep gravel, will make the drivers been more cautious.

He will be hoping so as he is in the midfield and at the mercy of other drivers not screwing up, and a couple will do. If he makes it through unscathed, then he has a chance to justify the odds, but he will still have to be perfect. In his favour is that the pole sitter doesn’t go well here, his teammate will pull over for him, Leclerc is behind him, and the rest are too slow. He may deserve favouritism, but this is no penalty kick.

Usual Suspects

The podium is likely to be the usual suspects. Alonso may harbour hopes of a podium, but he would need some luck. If Mercedes continue to struggle, he would only have Verstappen and possibly Leclerc to worry about, but the Sunday Mercs are usually a different proposition. He should be able to be best of the rest, however.

His competition for that market comes from his teammate, Esteban Ocon, who naturally took a penalty after backing him ante post for a top 6. Ocon qualified 5th, ahead of Alonso, but has to start 17th and in the same car, Alonso should not be worried about him. Norris is another who would have been in the running for BOTR, 3rd in FP2 and 4th in FP4, but he now starts 18th.

Alonso will not get a better chance to be best of the rest.

2022 Belgian GP Raceday Tip: 2 points Fernando Alonso to be winning driver without the big 6 @ 2.20 with Hills

Alex Albon starts 6th in the Williams, and he will be hoping that he can hang on for his third top 10 finish in a row at Spa. He was fastest of all in sector 1 and he will be a headache for the two Mercs ahead of him on lap one.

The advantage of the tow in the first sector here is huge, even without DRS, and with his top speed advantage plus a tow, he will be looking to make up places on the first lap. From there he will be something of a cork in the bottle, faster in the overtaking places, slower in the places where it is hard to pass. He should play a big role in this race.

The car has decent pace on this track. Sometimes you get fairly modest cars that go well in low downforce set ups, getting rid of inefficient, draggy wings makes them more competitive, and he was 6th in FP1 and 11th in FP2, so his actual 9th in qualifying was deserved. He will eventually drop down the order, but it would be no surprise to see him finish 9th or 10th.

2022 Belgian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Alex Albon to finish in the points @ 3.00 with Hills, BET365

Ladbrokes’ Group betting is always worth a look. Group one is made up of Leclerc, Hamilton, Russell and Alonso. It is an interesting group with Leclerc the 2.40 favourite, despite starting 16th. He has been slower than teammate Sainz in three of the four sessions but was 0.815 faster than Alonso, 0.95 faster than Hamilton and 1.223 faster than Russell. That suggests he can win the group, but he is giving up a lot of places at the start. He is also driving for Ferrari who showed their usual level of proficiency in qualifying, sending Leclerc out on the wrong tyres at one stage.

Mercedes Slowest

The two Mercedes were the slowest cars in the group, and they will need to find their ‘Sunday Form’ if they are to win the group. Alonso starts third and I’d rather be starting third than sixteenth on this track. Leclerc is in the minefield, the rest relatively safe at the front end. Leclerc should win but his odds are cramped. Hamilton is the 2.60 second favourite, Russell 4.75 and Alonso the 8.50 outsider, despite starting ahead of the others.

A lot depends on Mercedes’ Sunday pace. There is no doubt that they have been massively disappointing so far. The regulation changes have not moved them closer to the front two and they remain confused by their own car. They will need to find a couple of tenths to be faster than Alonso in an Alpine that has improved in every session. Ocon was 0.188 faster than Alonso in qualifying so there is more pace in his car. He is the outsider, but 8.50? He is not without a chance.

2022 Belgian GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Alonso to win Group 1 @ 8.50 with Ladbrokes

Group 4 has Zhou, Latifi, Schumacher and Tsunoda. Schumacher and Tsunoda start on the back row, Tsunoda 13th and Latifi 11th. For once, it is the Williams that is the better car. Latifi is not good enough to be in F1 but the Williams in low downforce trim is a half decent car. This group looks like a match between Latifi and Tsunoda and Latifi has a small head start. In the last four races where they have both finished, Latifi is 3-1 up on Tsunoda and he looks to have the better car this weekend.

2022 Belgian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Latifi to win Group 4 @ 3.25 with Ladbrokes

The layout of this circuit makes life difficult for the pole position driver. He is defending from cars behind that will be getting a tow down into Eau Rouge and if they enter the Kemmel straight reasonably close to the car in front, the chasers will be gaining a few kmph on a very long straight.

Perez and Alonso were just 1 kmph slower than Sainz down the straight yesterday and that may not be enough to keep the chasers at bay. Perez is 2.50 to lead at the end of lap 1 but any other driver is 9.00.

By any other, we are talking Alonso. He isn’t shy and has nothing to lose. He is driving for himself now and won’t be giving two hoots about bringing the car home safely and keeping ahead of McLaren. Alonso wants glory. It is not uncommon to see three cars battling for the lead come the end of Kemmel and its worth a punt that Alonso pulls it off.

2022 Belgian GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Any other driver to lead after the first lap @ 9.00 with Pokerstars

Of course, I have far too many bets in the Alpine – Alonso basket, so he is doomed to be taken out at the opening hairpin.

-JamesPunt