2022 Breeders Cup Saturday Preview and Tips – DS
2022 Breeders Cup Saturday Tips
A bumper day of action continues Stateside on Saturday night at Keeneland. Dave Stevos has already posted his UK racing tips, check them out here. His 2022 Breeders Cup Saturday tips are below.
3.50 – Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (Grade 1)
We start off on the dirt on Saturday with this 7f ‘sprint’ for the fillies and mares. Goodnight Olive comes here on the back of five successive wins, the last one coming in a Grade 1 handicap. Chad Brown’s 4yo is hugely progressive and she deserves a shot at this. Last year’s winner Ce Ce rates an obvious danger. She warmed up with an easy G3 win over 6f at Santa Anita, her 3rd stakes win from her last five starts. The 6yo clearly retains plenty of ability and she is nicely drawn in 4.
At Keeneland, previous course form can be a big positive and at 16/1, Wicked Halo ticks that box. This daughter of Gun Runner is trained by Steve Asmussen and she ran her best ever race when hacking up in a C&D G2 last time out. That was her fourth win on the spin and her second G2 win in a row. The 3yo is clearly progressing and there could still be more to come from her.
Her draw in stall 11 isn’t ideal so she’ll have to break smartly from the gate. She was drawn 8 of 9 when winning here last time and she sat wide, so hopefully she can do similar tonight. Even if she doesn’t ping the start she raced in midfield when winning on her previous start at Saratoga so this is a tactically versatile filly. Her sire won twice at the Breeders’ Cup, hopefully Wicked Halo can follow in his hoofsteps at odds of 16/1.
2022 Breeders Cup Saturday Tips: Wicked Halo e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)
4.29 – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1)
It’s all about gate speed in this 5.5f burn up. Wesley Ward’s speedster Golden Pal heads the market and he is drawn in stall 8. The son of Uncle Mo is a prominent racer and Irad Ortiz will be keen to get a flyer from the starting stalls. If he does get to the front, he could be hard to pass. The European challenge is spearheaded by the brilliant mare Highland Princess. She’s in stall 6 and she doesn’t have to lead so her supporters will be hoping she gets a tow into the race from Golden Pal and then grabs him in the home stretch.
Golden Pal is 2/1, Highland Princess is 5/2 and it is double figure odds the rest. At monstrous odds, Flotus could sneak into the frame from stall 2. Hollie Doyle rides the daughter of Starspangledbanner for the Crisfords and she has had excuses for her last three runs. It was too soft at both Longchamp and the Curragh and a stumble at the start left her with no chance at York.
Previous to that she landed a G3 at York, making all over 6f. She had previously finished a fine 3rd in the Commonwealth at Ascot, just giving way close to home. That stiff 6f might just stretch her and 5.5f around here should suit much better. If she does blast out of the stalls and get to the front, she could well outrun her price of 66/1. At those odds, Flotus is the e/w selection.
2022 Breeders Cup Saturday Tips: Flotus e/w @ 66/1 (4 places)
5.10 – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (grade 1)
A tricky race so it might be worth taking a punt on one at big odds. At around 33/1, Slow Down Andy could surprise with a bold showing from the inside stall. Trained by Doug O’Neill, this horse has a very consistent record on fast dirt. The 3yo son of Nyquist has had six runs on that type of surface, returning three wins at Sunland, Los Alamitos and Santa Anita. He has already won twice at G2 level and last time out at Santa Anita (9f) he proved he could compete at the top table.
In that race he stumbled coming out of the stalls and his jockey had to use a fair bit of petrol to get to a prominent posi. When he did get to the front he was then a bit keen so to finish 3rd, beat just over 2L, was a fine effort. He was only 0.5L behind dual G1 winner Country Grammer. He’s rated 115 and the winner is now rated 116 so that puts Slow Down Andy right in the mix here. The bookies discounted him last time and he placed, hopefully history repeats itself tonight. At odds of 33/1, Slow Down Andy is the e/w selection.
2022 Breeders Cup Saturday Tips: Slow Down Andy e/w @ 33/1 NB
5.50 – Breeders’ Cup Fillies and Mares Turf (grade 1)
Nashwa flies the flag for the UK in this 9.5f turf G1. Hollie Doyle has struck up a great partnership with The Gosdens’ daughter of Frankel and she has yet to run a bad race this season. Third in the Oaks on her first try at the top table, she has benefited from dropping back to 10f.
She has landed two G1s at that trip, one on good to soft and the other on good to firm. She lost no caste in defeat on ground probably too soft for her at Longchamp last time and back on a sounder surface, she is the one to beat.
Above The Curve was close up behind Nashwa last time and her G2 win when beating Insinuendo is rock solid form. She previously landed a Longchamp G1 (10f gd/sft) and she is clearly a very talented filly. However, her very best form has come on easier ground than she’ll be getting today.
Home Challenge
The home challenge will be spearheaded by In Italian. By Dubawi, this horse is on a hat trick after landing G1s over 9f and 8f on her last two outings. It is a plus that she has winning course form in the book and she should be fine over this extra half furlong. Her draw in stall 11 is far from ideal and she’ll need to be quickly away if connections plan on being forward early like she usually is.
However, at huge odds, maybe Lady Speightspeare can sneak into the places. Trained by Roger Attfield, Luis Saez takes the ride on this well related daughter of Speightstown. She has won 7 of her 12 starts and her last three in a row. Those came in G2 and G3 company (the last two on dirt) but she has G1 Keeneland form in the book too.
In that 8.5f race she fly jumped leaving the stalls and from then on, she was on the back foot in rear. She had no chance with the first two home but she ran on really well in the closing stages to get up for 3rd. On breeding this extra furlong ought to suit her and Roger Attfield actually won this very race with Perfect Shirl, a half sister to Lady Speightspeare’s dam. She has a nice draw in stall 1 and once she doesn’t blow the start, she could hit the frame at odds of 40/1.
2022 Breeders Cup Saturday Tips: Lady Speightspeare e/w @ 40/1 (4 places)
6.30 – Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Grade 1)
We are back on the dirt for this 6f sprint. Jackie’s Warrior came unstuck over 7f at Saratoga last time but he is odds on to make amends now dropped back to 6f. The son of Maclean’s Music has won over the longer trip but he is 4/5 on fast dirt over 6f. This colt did run at Keeneland back in 2020 as a 2yo and he could only manage 4th. That was over a mile though so you couldn’t really hold that against him. Steve Asmussen’s charge will be more at home over today’s trip and once he breaks well from stall 9, he is the one to beat.
However, he was beat in this race last year at 1/2 and he was beat last time out at 1/5, so he could be worth taking on. At odds of 40/1, the 2020 C&D runner up in this race could outrun his price. C Z Rocket isn’t getting any younger at 8yo but sprinters can retain their ability a lot longer than middle distance horses. The gelding went mightily close on his prep run at Santa Anita (6f) and that proved he is still a quality performer.
C Z Rocket has had three previous runs at Keeneland returning form figures of 112. The 2 came at the Breeders’ Cup in 2020 and his career form over 6f on dirt reads 11123512. He’ll be suited by a strong gallop, which looks likely, and if they go quick enough early, hopefully Flavien Prat can finish fast and late for e/w backers.
2022 Breeders Cup Saturday Tips: C Z Rocket e/w @ 40/1
7.10 – Breeders’ Cup Mile (Grade 1)
We backed Malavath at the Breeders’ Cup last year and she ran a cracker to finish 2nd. The French trained filly is back for another go and she warmed up with a super effort behind the very talented Kinross at Longchamp last month. The way she finished off over that 7f trip indicated that a step up to a mile would suit and she’ll be better suited by the nicer ground stateside.
This daughter of Mehmas is drawn in 9 but that shouldn’t inconvenience her too much. She’ll likely be held up and delivered late, just like she was at Del Mar last year. Francis Graffard’s filly enjoys going round a bend and this flat track will suit her well. Graffard has booked US based pilot Tyler Gaffalione for the ride and he has ridden over 150 winners at Keeneland. On the evidence of her last run, Malavath should be able to close the 2 length gap to Kinross over this extra furlong so at odds of 16/1, the French raider is the e/w selection.
2022 Breeders Cup Saturday Tips: Malavath e/w @ 16/1 (4 places) NAP
7.55 – Breeders’ Cup Distaff (grade 1)
Just the eight runners and this is a race I don’t have a strong opinion on. Nest is on a four timer and she hosed up on her last start at this track. Malathaat also has an excellent track record (3/3) and she has landed a pair of G1s on her last two starts. It is hard to see past the shorter priced horses here and I’m going to sit this one out. No bet.
2022 Breeders Cup Saturday Tips: No Bet
8.40 – Breeders’ Cup Turf (grade 1)
We have backed Stone Age to no avail the last twice. On both occasions he wasn’t ridden to best effect but he still wasn’t beaten that far behind the likes of Luxembourg, Bay Bridge, Onesto, Vadeni and Baaeed. He was drawn 9 of 10 on his last jaunt Stateside and John Velazquez had to take his medicine and sit out wide. He finished 3.25L behind the fav for tonight’s race, Nations Pride, but this time, he has been drawn much better in stall 3.
This sort of a test could really suit the son of Galileo. His last two runs came on easy ground but the firm conditions at Keeneland should be much more up his street. I have no doubt that this horse has a big one in him and this could be the day he finally makes his mark at the top table. 10/1 looks a more than fair price, hopefully Stone Age breaks well, bounces out and makes all.
2022 Breeders Cup Saturday Tips: Stone Age e/w @ 10/1 (4 places)
9.40 – Breeders’ Cup Classic (grade 1)
Hopefully we have a few quid in the bank by the time the finale comes around. If not, it’s going to be an exceedingly long day! Favourite backers will be relying on Flightline to help them finish with a flourish. John Sadler’s superstar is viewed by many as the best horse in training and it is hard to argue with that assertion. He is unbeaten after 5 starts and he made his claim for greatness when demolishing the field by 20 lengths in a G1 at Del Mar last time out. How good is he? We’ll find out tonight but it is hard to see him getting beat.
Flightline Form
Three runs ago Happy Saver took on Flightline over 8f at Belmont Park. He managed to get to within 6L of Sadler’s charge, the closest any horse has managed to finish behind him. On his next start, over 9f, he got to within 2L of Life Is Good (9/1 here) and he had Hod Rod Charlie (33/1 here) 0.25L behind in 3rd. Hot Rod Charlie gained revenge last time at Churchill Downs, beating Happy Saver by 5.75L but Todd Pletcher’s charge didn’t enjoy the clearest of runs.
Happy Saver has already landed a G1 over this 10f trip and he is a very consistent animal. In eleven career starts he has four wins, five 2nds and a 3rd and last time out was the first time he ever finished out of the first three. His odds of 66/1 are surely an overreaction to that last run and if he can repeat the form he showed on his two previous outings, a place is not out of the question.
