2022 British GP Raceday Update and Betting Tips – JP
2022 British GP Raceday Update
James Punt’s 2022 British GP Raceday update is ready. You can check out his outright preview here.
2022 British GP Raceday Preview
The second wet qualifying in a row ruined both our bets (second and third naturally) and once again we have a bit of a mixed-up grid for today’s race.
Firstly, a look at the weather. So far, the track has been a magnet for any rain that has been around and today we have a much brighter day, dry so far with a 40% chance of a shower. There is a weakening front coming in from the west, but it seems to be fizzling out and I’ll go with the 60% chance of it being dry or at least, mostly dry. But I have been entirely wrong on the weather calls this year.
The grid sees Carlos Sainz on pole position for the first time, and he is seeking his first F1 race win. His problem is that he isn’t in the fastest car. Verstappen looked in a very good position to get pole position, wet or dry, but had had to back off on his last flying lap after Leclerc spun and caused a brief yellow flag.
Verstappen has pace
In FP3 it was Verstappen who was fastest and 0.447 faster than the nearest non Red Bull. That sort of pace difference will be hard for Sainz to resist. Verstappen starts in second place and three of the last five winner have started second at Silverstone. Sainz was fastest in FP2 on Friday and will cling to that as a hope for the race, but by FP3, Red Bull was the by far the more sorted car.
Verstappen has won five of the last six races, Red Bull all six. That is not a coincidence. The Dutchman is the 1.67 favourite and provided he gets a clean start and the car remains reliable, he should justify those odds. Good value? It is a bit marginal. A heavy shower could throw a spanner into the works, reliability is not a given, but he is the best driver in the best car.
Ferrari Faltering
Ferrari have won two races, but not since race three. They have dropped the ball in Monaco and suffered at retirement when leading in Spain. The car is not as quick, is less reliable, the team are strategically suspect and Sainz has never won a race. Sainz is the 5.50 third favourite which might be a bit harsh, but not unrealistic.
He has never finished better than 6th here, whereas his teammate has had three podiums. We have backed Leclerc ante-post at 3.25 and he is out to 5.50. Like Sainz, he is up against the fact that the Red Bull has turned out to be faster on this track.
We have not heard much talk about tyre wear so far. With rain making FP1 fairly meaningless, there has not been the same amount of long runs carried out. With a green track today, how the tyres degrade on the different cars is still a bit of an unknown. A two stop race is expected which always allows for different strategies.
Medium Tyres Favoured
The yellow medium compound will be the favoured tyre for the race and all of the top 10, bar Norris, have two new sets at their disposal. That may force him into doing something different. Ricciardo is in the same boat, along with both Alpha Tauris. The Aston Martins only have used mediums left, but they are toast in any case.
Many eyes will be on Lewis Hamilton in 5th place. The much vaunted upgrade meant that he gets his joint second best grid position of the season. His best was in Canada, also in a wet session, and he converted that into a third place. The Mercedes race pace has always been better than in qualifying but his problem today is that he has both Ferrari’s and both Red Bulls ahead of him. When we have had a Mercedes on the podium, it has been when one or more of the big four have had a problem. In Canada Perez retired and Leclerc started from the back. In Bahrain the two Red Bulls retired and so on.
Has Hamilton got enough pace?
If Hamilton is to thrill his fans, the upgrade will have to make his pace good enough to beat two of the big four or hope for more attrition ahead of him. His track record is excellent, but the car is still a bit of an unknown. The porpoising is less here thanks to the smooth surface but he was complaining that he was still getting it in the high-speed corners. He is a 3.25 shot to get a top 3 finish which looks about right.
Lando Norris starts sixth but he expects to be passed by Russell and his real fight is with Alonso. McLaren are trying to keep Alpine behind them in the championship and that is a big battle. Norris has been faster in every session so far and Alonso tends to be better in qualifying than in the race. Norris can be backed at 1.57 to beat Alonso, which looks about right.
Zhou On The Up
The first of the surprises on the grid, outside of pole position, is Zhou in ninth. That is his best of the season, his second consecutive Q3 and the third time in a row he has out qualified Bottas. Those are signs that he is good in the wet, but also that he is settling in.
The car is decent, Bottas has had seven points finishes and Zhou finished 8th in Canada last time out. He knows this track better and makes some appeal at 2.00 for another top 10 finish. He doesn’t have many quicker cars behind him and with a clean start he has a good chance. Zhou is also 1.78 to beat Daniel Ricciardo.
McLaren are in 6th with Lando, but Ricciardo is just 14th on the grid. He was just 18th in FP3 and is struggling again. McLaren say their car is better suited to this track than most so will Ricciardo fight his way into the points, or continue to struggle? He only has two top 10’s in 2022 despite four top ten starts. His race pace is not noticeably quicker than qualifying.
I am loathed to back a driver twice in one race, it attracts trouble. So, to back Zhou for a top 10 at 2.00, or to beat Ricciardo at 1.78?
2022 British GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Zhou to finish in the points @ 2.00 with Skybet, BET365
The biggest surprise on the grid is Nicolas Latifi in tenth place. A wet session can do things like that. He knows that he has ten faster cars behind him and finishing in the points is unrealistic, which must be depressing. He can be backed at 1.85 to beat Mick Schumacher who starts on the back row. That is a decent head start for Latifi, who, ironically, is the Williams without the upgrade. The Haas is a quicker car, but not massively.
2022 British GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Nicolas Latifi to beat Mick Schumacher @ 1.85 with Unibet
The Alpha Tauris have been struggling all weekend and the wet qualifying may actually have flattered them. They are not expecting a good day today and can be opposed. Ladbrokes have a few groups to bet on and the other Williams of Alex Albon makes some appeal at 3.75 to win group 4.
He is up against Tsunoda, Latifi, Magnussen and Stroll. Aston Martin look a bit lost and Stroll starts last. Magnussen has struggled all weekend, never better than 17th. Tsunoda is likely to drop back and for once, the two Williams are not in bad position. The team had hopes of Q3 for Albon in the upgraded car, although he was never better than 14th. It may be that Albon’s biggest threat is his teammate who starts six places ahead.
2022 British GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Alex Albon to win Group 4 @ 3.75 with Ladbrokes
We have a big ante post bet on Ocon to finish in the points and of course, it has all gone wrong. He starts 15th after he lost battery power in Q2. He and the team are still optimistic of a points finish, but everyone says that. The car has top 10 pace as demonstrated by Alonso, and Ocon does go better in races than qualifying.
Hopefully he can do just that, but he is a 2.75 shot to do so. He is an attractive price (2.75) to beat Ricciardo, Gasly and Vettel in Ladbrokes Group 3, but that would be too many eggs in the Ocon basket.
For one final bet, Perez looks a decent price to set the fastest lap. He has done it twice this season, both in the last four races. The Red Bull looks to be the fastest car and while it is a market that is a bit of a lottery the odds are attractive enough.
