2022 Canadian GP Preview and Betting Tips – JP
2022 Canadian GP Preview and Tips
The Formula 1 circus moves across the Atlantic and a return to Montreal for the first time since 2019 for the 2022 Canadian GP. The Circuit de Giles Villeneuve is a quasi-street circuit, but not in the same sense as Monaco or Baku. It is a low downforce, fast track featuring long straights broken up by multiple chicanes and a slow hairpin. There are some walls very close to the racing line, most notably, The Wall of Champions, which has claimed quite a few drivers over the years.
Top end speed is important, and it is somewhat like Baku in that sense. The track isn’t the smoothest either and expect the issue of porpoising to raise its head again. That isn’t really an issue for Red Bull or Ferrari, but the Mercedes is still suffering more than any other car and expect more pain for their drivers.
New Regulations on the Horizon?
The FIA have unexpectedly stepped in, the day before the start of the racing weekend, with steps to protect the drivers’ wellbeing. Funny that just a few weeks ago, when Carlos Sainz suggested that the bouncing was going to create health problems, other drivers just poo pooed it, saying it wasn’t an issue for them. Now we are getting Hamilton suddenly hardly able to get out of his car with a bad back.
Sadly for Mercedes, the steps that are being considered are not going to solve their problems. The ability to reduce the amount of porpoising is there, and now it seems the FIA are going to require the teams to do whatever it takes to reduce the bouncing to an acceptable level. Reduce ride heights, using a thicker floor, reducing suspension stiffness, all things that reduce the bouncing, but also reduce performance. I suspect what we have now, is the start of a little dance between the various team’s self-interests, and the FIA.
2022 Canadian GP: Will Order Change?
From the punters point of view, the question is whether it will affect the competitive order? It is too early to tell, and the actual measurement and enforcement of any new regulations are not exactly set in stone, but the general view is that it should do. It would appear that on paper, the ‘bouncier’ the car, the slower it should be if said bouncing is reduced.
The FIA are not going to suddenly rip up this year’s regulations regarding the introduction of ground effects. This was introduced to help closer racing. That is still the aim. The teams that are struggling are just going to have to do what is available to them as a solution. There is no suggestion that we are going back to the old aero regulations, just that the bouncing must be reduced.
I would say that Red Bull will be the least affected and any changes will, ironically, help them and hinder Mercedes. Not what Mercedes were hoping for.
Advantage Red Bull
Ferrari bounce more than Red Bull, so again, advantage Red Bull. McLaren’s bouncing seems to come and go, Alpha Tauri likewise, maybe Alpine and Aston Martin may make modest competitive gains, but we do not really know, and may not for several races. However, I do not expect things to change much. Perhaps if Bernie was still in charge and he wanted to change to competitive order to make it closer, then it would, but not so much these days.
It should be stressed that the FIA are data gathering this weekend, with the aim to find solutions, rather than throwing in draconian new regulations, but it is not altogether clear what is happening.
2022 Canadian GP: Current Form
The season is now eight races old, and we have established the relative form of the teams, especially the top two. Red Bull are in control of both championships, and they have the best all-round car. Ferrari have a quick car over a qualifying lap, but they have lost their way in terms of reliability, and they struggle to match Red Bull in terms of race pace, especially on the faster tracks with lots of straights, of which this is another. The Ferrari might have the edge through the many chicanes but sectors two and three will reward the Red Bulls’ top end speed advantage.
Ferrari’s new low drag rear wing which debuted in Azerbaijan was hailed a success by the team, despite their being so slow through the speed traps. They were able to be more competitive in the race, but was that the wing, or the fact that the wind was more behind the cars on the long straight?
80 Point Gap
Red Bull have opened up an 80 point lead over Ferrari and it is a sign of how bad the Ferrari form has become, that they are just 38 points clear of Mercedes. A double DNF in Baku was a disaster for Ferrari and I think we can dismiss any thoughts of any titles for the Italian team, long season or not. They are expected to introduce a power unit upgrade at Silverstone in two week’s time, but they could really do with it now.
Ferrari say they have implemented a solution for the hydraulic problem which stopped Sainz last weekend, but the cause of Leclerc’s demise is still unknown. That does not bode well, and although Leclerc will have a new low mileage unit for this weekend, there may be a temptation to turn it down a bit to help with reliability until they find a fix. This is still his third power unit, so no penalties are due, but he is living on the edge in that sense.
Mercedes is in third place and closing on Ferrari. Not because Mercedes is getting better, just that Ferrari are having a bad run.
McLaren are a distant fourth but at least had a better race last time out with Ricciardo looking a little more competitive.
Alpine Have Good Qualities
Alpine continue to confuse and confound, but they have had a car in the top 7 for the last three races and two double points finishes. Like everyone, they are benefiting from Ferrari’s retirements, but the car has some good qualities, including low downforce top speeds, which could be rewarded this weekend.
Alfa Romeo are doing a lot better than in 2021 but with the Ferrari power unit on board, they are suffering with reliability issues. The car has potential and they are under performing compared to that potential.
Alpha Tauri had their seasons best finish in Baku but they are a hard team to pin down. They often show good pace in practice but can’t replicate that in the race.
Aston Martin seem to have ridden out the mini storm caused by their Red Bull lookalike redesign. The car is better as a result but they are still only in the midfield at best. Vettel is enjoying better form after a slow start to the season.
Haas are struggling compared to their competitiveness in the early races. This is a function of their size and limited resources. The same can be said for Williams who are waiting for a significant upgrade to be delivered. It probably isn’t going to be this weekend, but it is coming.
Driver Records
Looking at the drivers’ records here in the turbo hybrid era, we only have six races with the last in 2019. That was the year of Ferrari’s potent power unit and Vettel crossed the line in first place but was handed a 5 second penalty for re-entering the track dangerously.
This track was the scene of Lewis Hamilton’s first ever F1 race win and he has won four of the six races here in the turbo hybrid era. The success of Mercedes and Ferrari here underlines that it is a power sensitive circuit and that means another great opportunity for Red Bull to increase their lead.
Max Verstappen does not have a good record in Montreal, but he has never had a car that had the required power to be competitive. This year he does, and he is the 1.91 favourite to take his sixth win of the season.
Perez Playing His Part
Sergio Perez is getting on much better with this years Red Bull and while he lacks the raw pace of Verstappen, he is able to fill the gap if Verstappen has a problem and he is playing a good team game. His Montreal record is not good, with a best placed 5th in 2017 but he has only two top 10s, poor by his standards. He has been much closer to Verstappen in Monaco and Baku but remains the number two at Red Bull.
Charles Leclerc has only raced here twice and finished tenth in his debut season, and third for Ferrari in 2019. With six pole positions from eight in 2022, he will be in with a shout of another, but he has gone five races without a win and Ferrari have unravelled alarmingly. Carlos Sainz is yet to really impress this season and with three DNFs he has now been overtaken by George Russell in the driver’s championship. Sainz, usually such a safe pair of hands, has only finished in the points twice in Montreal.
Riccardio Solid Form
At McLaren, Norris has only had one race here and failed to finish, while Ricciardo won for Red Bull in 2014 had a third in 2017 and only finished outside the top 7 once since 2014. McLaren had only their second double points finish in Azerbaijan last weekend, but after a promising start to the season, they have not really moved on. They have scored decent points in the four street circuits so far in 2022, so maybe they can be more impressive this weekend.
Alpine also had a double points finish in Baku and impressed with the top speed figures. Something similar can be expected here this weekend, but with Alpine, you can never quite be sure. Ocon has finished 6th and 9th on his two Montreal starts, but Alonso never had the car to be competitive here in the turbo hybrid era.
Valtteri Bottas has a good track record, both with Williams and Mercedes. He never won but had two 3rd and two 2nd places, and never out of the points. His Alfa Romeo shows promise at times, but more often than not, they have been blighted by poor reliability as a team. They are another Ferrari customer team and that comes with a wealth warning.
Vettel Goes Well Here
Sebastian Vettel landed our 2 point bet for a points finish last weekend and Montreal is another circuit on which he has gone well. Since 2014 he has one win, two seconds, a third and never worse than fifth. Home boy Lance Stroll has two ninth places from his three starts on home turf.
The car is still very much a borderline points scorer, but Vettel might be able to coax another top 10 from his green machine. The Red Bull like makeover has moved them out of the basket case situation they started the year in, but there is still a long way to go to become respectably midfield.
Pierre Gasly has just the two races here and finished a best placed 8th in 2019. He had a season best 5th in Baku last weekend, and he will be hoping for more points this weekend. Tsunoda will be making his debut in Montreal, as will Zhou, the other Canadian Nicolas Latifi and Mick Schumacher. With George Russell and Lando Norris only having raced here once, there is a distinct lack of experience for quite a few drivers this weekend.
Weather Forecast
The weather in Montreal can be fickle and this weekend we are expecting to see a mixed bag. FP1 and 2 will see fairly warm conditions but cloudier in the afternoon with showers around. Saturday will be cooler, dropping by some 10 -15 degrees, with cloudy, showery and breezy conditions. That may impact the qualifying session with moderate rain around for several hours. Race day looks to be dry, warmer and partly sunny.
2022 Canadian GP: Ante Post Selections
We have done well backing Charles Leclerc to be the fastest qualifier in recent races and the penny has finally dropped with the bookies. Leclerc is the odds on favourite this time round to be the driver on pole, and this is a track on which he may struggle to get it.
The Ferrari is likely to be quicker in the slower first sector, but the rest of the lap looks much more Red Bull friendly. If Ferrari are force to run their power unit more conservatively, we could see a Red Bull challenging for only their third pole of the year.
Rain Threat
There is also a realistic threat of rain for the qualifying session. We have had one qualifying session that was wet/drying, the Emilia Romagna GP at Imola. That session did throw up some unusual qualifying performances. It was a session in which Leclerc was not on pole, that went to Verstappen, mainly thanks to a mistake by Leclerc. Lando Norris was third, Kevin Magnussen fourth, Alonso fifth, Ricciardo sixth and Vettel ninth, all well above their norm.
The race was also wet/drying and we had a Red Bull 1-2, Norris third, Bottas fifth, Tsunoda seventh and Vettel eighth. Monaco saw a wet/drying race. There we had a Red Bull 1-2, Norris sixth, Alonso seventh and Vettel tenth.
There is not a lot to go on, but it seems that Red Bull should not be inconvenienced by a wet session, Norris is handy in mixed conditions and old timers, Alonso and Vettel useful in these conditions. It is only qualifying that is likely to be affected, so we should not be going overboard, especially with the muddying of the waters regarding steps to reduce porpoising.
2022 Canadian GP: Qualifying
With some uncertainty regarding the steps to reduce porpoising and how that could affect the team’s performance, and the strong possibility of rain, we may see a different looking grid come Sunday. With Leclerc now a best priced 1.85, a more uncertain qualifying picture thanks to the weather, and perhaps Ferrari running their power unit more conservatively, the value on him is less than it has been. Max Verstappen is the next best qualifier and the most likely to usurp the King. His odds are enough for a modest bet.
2022 Canadian GP Tip: 1 point Max Verstappen to be the fastest qualifier @ 3.80 with SportingIndex
For the race, Verstappen is hard to oppose. The Red Bulls race pace is just too good for Ferrari especially where straight line speed is important, and it is here.
2022 Canadian GP Tip: 2 points Max Verstappen to win @ 1.91 with SpreadEx
Side Markets
I am interested to see how Lando Norris will get on this weekend. A wet qualifying session could give him a good opportunity establish a good grid position and capitalise on it. Any further reliability woes for Ferrari would further help him. He has gone well on the street circuits and in any wet conditions and is on the radar for a good weekend.
2022 Canadian GP Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to finish in the top 6 @ 2.25 generally available
Alpine have been a bit of money pit punting wise, but they do seem to be getting better and Alonso and Ocon both look to have decent claims for points this weekend.
