2022 Champion Hurdle: The Stats That Matter – DS
2022 Champion Hurdle: The Stats That Matter
What better time to do a stats based piece for the Champion Hurdle than the day after the star of the division laid down a marker at Leopardstown. Honeysuckle routed what was a pretty ordinary field in the Irish Champion and she looked as good as she ever has. The reigning, defending, undisputed and undefeated Champion Hurdler will be back to defend her crown in 2022, are the statistics in her favour or is her 0 going to go? Check out Dave Stevos’ 2022 Champion Hurdle Stats That Matter preview below. (Gold Cup Stats based preview available here)
Age
You all know the drill by now. Age is more than just a number, especially in Championship Races, and this contest is no exception. The sweet spot in terms of age for potential Champion Hurdle winners is between 6yo and 8yo. Yes, poor old Espoir D’Allen bucked the trend when winning as a 5yo in 2019. However, him and Katchit were the only 5yos to win since See You Then in 1985. Hurricane Fly won as a 9yo in 2013 but only three horses of that age have won since Hatton’s Grace in 1949.
The highest profile casualty is the admirable 9yo Sharjah. I think he has huge place claims, but the stats say he can’t win. At the other end of the age spectrum some other well fancied horses also come a cropper. Zanahiyr and Teahupoo are both 5yos so they get the chop, as do Quilixios and Adagio. Eleven horses are counted out at this stage, next up we’ll look at recent form.
Cut: Adagio; Monmiral; Quilixios; Saint Felicien; Teahupoo; Tritonic; Zanahiyr; Cask Mate; Not So Sleepy; Sharjah; Buveur D’Air.
Recent Form
Usually, course form would be next on the list but I don’t think it is quite as important over hurdles as it is over the bigger obstacles. Only 6 of the last 12 Champion Hurdle winners had a win at Cheltenham under their belts. However, of the last 12 winners, 10 won on their last start and 11 either won or were placed. This stat counted out the runner up Sharjah last year so hopefully history doesn’t repeat itself.
We can now cut the field quite considerably. Goshen saved his skin by winning on Saturday at Sandown. However, Song For Someone was only 4th in that race so he is discounted. My Mate Mozzie was beat 50+L by Sir Gerhard at Leopardstown so it is the end of the road for him. Saint Roi and Echoes In Rain were left trailing in Honeysuckle’s wake so they both miss out at this stage. Abacadabras also falls at this obstacle. That leaves us with six main contenders and we sort them out below.
Cut: Song For Someone; My Mate Mozzie; Echoes In Rain; Aspire Tower; Saint Roi; Abacadabras.
2022 Champion Hurdle: The Final Six
So, using age and recent form to narrow the field has left us with six survivors. Surprisingly, Goshen is one of them. He is a law unto himself but he had the Triumph in the bag when disaster struck a couple of years ago so he does at least have course form in the book. That is a long time ago now, though, and these days he has to go right handed. This track will not bring out the best in him.
Glory And Fortune is another one at a massive price that has made the grade. He finished just 2.25L behind Epatante at Kempton last time (16f sft). He flattened the 2nd last as he was moving into the race from the back and only for that, he could have got closer to the winner. Tom Lacey’s charge won a Listed bumper at Cheltenham in 2019 so he ticks the course form box and he could be a dark horse to run into a place at monstrous odds. If he wins the Betfair Hurdle he will likely shorten considerably.
Tommy A Pro
The four shortest priced horses that made it this far are Tommy’s Oscar, Epatante, Appreciate It and Honeysuckle. Tommy’s Oscar has surged through the ranks this season. He landed a Grade 2 last time out after stringing three handicap wins together. The only worry for him is that he has no course form in the book. However, this horse is the ultimate pro and I don’t think the track will pose any problems.
Appreciate it had yet to make his seasonal appearance at the time of writing. He was extremely impressive when winning a poor renewal of the Supreme easily last term. After four hurdle runs he remains undefeated but this will be tougher against some seasoned operators. If he doesn’t get a run in before the race, it will rate as a huge negative.
Honey Impossible To Oppose
Epatante is a very good mare but I think a rating of 153 just abouts sums her up. She won a pretty weak renewal of this two years ago but she finished 10L behind Honeysuckle in 3rd last season and a similar fate could await her this time. As for the favourite, she is impossible to oppose for win purposes. Trying to pick holes in her is a futile exercise because she has it all. 4/6 is an accurate reflection of her price and she should win and win well.
As for the places? On form, Sharjah looks the biggest threat but the stats have ruled him out. Appreciate It could emerge as a danger but his long absence is a worry. Epatante has been beat a total of almost 20L by Honeysuckle the two times she has faced her. For me, Tommy’s Oscar has an excellent chance of chasing the fav home. He is still value e/w at 28s and Epatante and Glory And Fortune can fill the next two places. Appreciate It misses out due to his lack of a recent run. If he does get a run under his belt before March, he could sneak into the top three ahead of Epatante.
