2022 Cheltenham Day 1 Preview and Tips – DS

by Dave Stevos | Mar 14, 2022

2022 Cheltenham Day 1 Preview and Tips

So, here it is. Four days of top class national hunt racing at the UK’s most famous track. Cheltenham is finally upon us and what a week it promises to be. It is a meeting that fills me with both dread and excitement all at once. Last year we had a nightmare but I am putting a line through that meeting due to the ground:) With decent conditions this time hopefully we’ll land a few nice winners. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2022 Cheltenham Day 1 preview and tips below.

1.30 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

It isn’t the biggest ever field for the Supreme but it is pretty stacked in terms of quality. Constitution Hill will be the main hope for the home team and he is the narrow 5/2 favourite. Trained by Nicky Henderson, this son of Blue Bresil has won both of his rules starts handily. He landed a 16f novice at Sandown by 14L on good to soft and then he made the step into Grade 1 company with ease, scoring impressively at the same track on heavy.

Willie Mullins trains three of the nine runners and unbeaten Dysart Dynamo is the mount of stable jockey Paul Townend. He has won both his hurdle starts by 19L, a maiden and a G2, both on soft. He won on yielding at Punchestown in a bumper so this better ground should be okay for him. Last time at Punchestown he was very keen to get on with things in front but the worry for me is that Mullins has so far kept him away from left handed tracks. Indeed, two of his runs came on flat tracks so it will be interesting to see if he can maintain his effort up the Cheltenham hill.

Lots Of Pace

Mullins also has Kilcruit and he’ll be ridden by Patrick. Like his stablemate, he is a front runner so this is going to be fascinating tactically. The outsiders Silent Revolution and Shallwehaveonemore both like to force the pace too so this could be run at an absolutely furious gallop. If it is, I think that will suit Jonbon, Mighty Potter and Bring On The Night the best.

Jonbon has been winning races that have been run at a crawl and he hasn’t been blowing away the opposition like some of his rivals. I don’t think we’ve seen even 70% of what this horse might be capable of and a strongly run 16f around here could be the making of Douvan’s brother. He looks to have a serious engine and he has yet to taste defeat in four rules starts.

Potter Has Claims

Mighty Potter is another one that could really blossom in a strongly run race. He did a lot wrong the last day at Leopardstown but still went and won. The race wasn’t run to suit him when he was beaten for the only time at Fairyhouse and then at Leopardstown his jumping left a bit to be desired. It could be that he is having a little think about things in those slowly run affairs but he won’t have time to do that in this race and there could be heaps more to come from him.

The other Mullins entry is very interesting. Bring On The Night was sourced in France where he was a two time winner on the level. It took Mullins two years to get him to the track and on the evidence of his Naas win, he was worth waiting for. He was a bit green, which you’d expect from a hurdling debutant, but he clearly has a big engine and he relished the uphill finish. Townend has jumped ship so Bryan Cooper takes the ride. It could turn out to be a very nice spare for him.

Proven Form

Of the five horses at the top of the market, Jonbon and Mighty Potter make most appeal. They have already proven themselves at Graded level and they have been winning their races when things haven’t been ideal (slow pace etc.). I’m not convinced by Kilcruit and I am not sure Constitution Hill will have the same turn of foot he showed on heavy ground on this quicker surface. Dysart Dynamo makes the least appeal of the market leaders as he has most to prove in terms of track configuration and the testing finish.

I was very taken by Bring On The Night at Naas. However, I am not sure he’ll be able to beat either Jonbon or Mighty Potter. To be honest, I am finding it very hard to split the Elliott and Henderson horses. So, I am going to recommend a small reverse forecast on those two and a small e/w bet on Bring On The Night at 25s. It’s a tricky start so keep the stakes modest as there are better betting opportunities to be had in the coming days.

2022 Cheltenham Day 1 Tips: Jonbon/Mighty Potter reverse forecast; Bring on The Night e/w @ 25/1

2.10 – Arkle Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

Edwardstone is another big British hope and he heads the betting for the Arkle. Alan King’s horses have not been in great form so that has to be a worry for favourite backers. However, this son of Kayf Tara has looked a potential superstar since switching to fences from hurdles and he is unlucky not to be 5/5 as a chaser. He made small mistakes in his first three wins but he learned from those and he put in his best round of jumping to date at Warwick last time.

Blue Lord is the shortest priced Irish challenger. The Mullins trained son of Blue Bresil is 3/3 over fences and he held off the late rally of Riviere D’etel in the Irish version of this race. However, the Elliott mare was short of room at a crucial time and if she had a clear run, she would have beaten Blue Lord. Of those two horses I much prefer the claims of the mare, especially as she gets a weight for sex allowance.

Confidence Questions

Haut En Couleurs also ran in the Irish Arkle but he fell early on. Will that have dented his confidence? It might well have done and it is far from ideal preparation for a jumping test like this. Saint Sam has placed festival form over hurdles and he was impressive on his chase debut at Fairyhouse. However, he came up short in the Irish Arkle and a similar outcome could await him today.

Gabynako drops in trip but he is not a great jumper and it would take a leap of faith to back him in a race of this nature. Rachael Blackmore is on Couer Sublime but he needed to drop into an egg and spoon race to get off the mark over fences. Darragh O’Keefe rides Magic Daze and this mare hacked up the last time he was on board. She ran a cracker in the Mares’ Novice last season so she ticks the course form book. When she is on song she is a very good jumper.

She is only rated 138 but she was only 1.5L behind the 152 rated Concertista at Cork last time off levels so I think that mark drastically underestimates her. She’ll improve on this better ground and O’Keefe is a decent judge of pace from the front. I think Riviere D’etel is the most likely winner but this is an open race so I am taking a chance on Magic Daze e/w at odds of 14.1,

2022 Cheltenham Day 1 Tips: Magic Daze e/w @ 14/1 (4 Places)

2.50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

My original selection for this race, The Wolf, wasn’t declared. I thought he had really strong claims so the fact that the McNeills have opted to run Kiltealy Briggs instead is interesting. This 8yo son of Fame And Glory is a very consistent animal. It took him a while to get off the mark over fences but he has won two of his last three starts. A class 2 novice win on heavy at Haydock in December was followed by a decent enough effort behind Bravemansgame in a Kempton G1 on Boxing Day.

That was over 3 miles on soft and while it could be argued that he didn’t stay, I think it was more that he just got beat by two very classy horses (Ahoy Senor was 10L ahead of him in 2nd). Jamie Snowden stepped his charge back down in trip and into Novice company at Musselburgh last time out (20.5f gd/sft) and connections were rewarded with a win (beat the 143 rated Pay The Piper by 0.5L).

Bred To Stay

This horse has yet to win at 3 miles or further but he has never had a chance over the distance on decent ground. He stayed 21.5f on heavy at Haydock so that proved he does possess stamina and he is bred to be best at staying distances. His dam is a full sister to Grand National hero Ballabriggs and his sire, the late Fame And Glory, has produced plenty of horses that like a trip.

I’d imagine connections couldn’t believe their luck when the handicapper only hiked this horse up 4lbs after his Musselburgh win. The front two pulled 25+ lengths clear of two other horses rated in the 140s and I’d imagine they expected to get an 8 or 9lb rise in the weights. Snowden’s string is in good form, Adrian Heskin knows this horse inside out and at odds of 25/1, he is the each way selection.

2022 Cheltenham Day 1 Tips: Kiltealy Briggs e/w @ 25/1 nb (7 places Betfred)

3.30 – Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)

This race revolves around Honeysuckle. Henry De Bromhead’s mare is on a 15 timer and she won this race doing handstands last season. She warmed up with two dominant wins at Fairyhouse and Leopardstown and she is odds on to win her second Champion Hurdle. Some have knocked bits and pieces of her form but what more can she do than beat what is put in front of her. She’s up against some familiar rivals here but the ones she hasn’t met yet could prove to be the biggest dangers.

There has been a lot of talk about Appreciate It. He was last seen destroying the field in the Supreme last season by 24L on soft ground. He hasn’t run for exactly a year and this is a monstrous ask first time up. He’s never raced on ground like this either so an awful lot has to be taken on trust. I don’t think any horse has won this race first time out so if he does it, it’ll be some achievement. However, odds of 9/2 about a horse with his profile make zero appeal.

Young Guns

Teahupoo is interesting for Power and Elliott. He is on a roll having won three in a row this season. He landed a G3 at Naas (16f yld), a Grade 2 at Limerick (16f hvy) and then another G3 at Gowran (16f hvy). That Gowran win convinced connections to have a crack at this. He did do it very well but it was bottomless ground and this is a much stronger race (despite what some experts are saying). His rating of 162 puts him in the mix but is he really that good? The jury is still out.

Adagio is another 5yo that takes his chance. David Pipe’s horse has run well without winning this season, including under a welter burden in a hot Cheltenham handicap. He lost no caste in defeat behind the mercurial Goshen last time out and I think he could be a dark horse to run into a place. However, the horse I am most looking forward to is Tommy’s Oscar.

Underrated

I cannot believe that this horse is as big as 40/1 on the eve of the race. I’ve heard some say he’s out of his depth, his limitations will be exposed etc. I couldn’t disagree more. The Hamiltons have brought this horse along slowly and they are reaping the rewards now. The first time I saw him run I thought he could be something special and despite a few handicap defeats, I still firmly believe that.

The worry is his lack of Cheltenham form. He has jumped to the right once or twice but I think he’ll be absolutely fine on this track. He is a horse that does everything his jockey asks of him. Tactically, he is versatile and he can race up with the pace or else come with a late challenge like he did when winning his first start in Grade 2 company last time. Good to soft ground is absolutely perfect and Danny McMenamin knows him inside out. Honeysuckle will be hard to beat but I think Tommy’s Oscar is ridiculously overpriced at odds of 40/1 and he is the each way pick.

2022 Cheltenham Day 1 Tips: Tommy’s Oscar e/w @ 40/1 NAP

4.10 – Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

I’ve been told that Queens Brook has been working very well and a big run is expected. She has 1.5L to find with Burning Victory on their meeting at Punchestown last month (20f sft/hvy). That was her first run back after a three month break so you’d expect her to come on for it and she’ll also be more at home on today’s ground.

Telmesomethinggirl won the mares’ novice last season and she has surely been trained for this race. She took a big step forward from her seasonal return last time out at Leopardstown. Henry De Bromhead’s mare was only 1.25L behind Royal Kahala and a repeat of that would see her go extremely close. She is the favourite at 7/2 and deservedly so.

Indefatigable Has Place Claims

At bigger odds, Indefatigable has each way claims. The form of the Paul Webber yard is a concern and this mare ran poorly behind Martello Sky last time out. That was at Warick though and the return to this track is a massive positive. The 9yo daughter of Schiaparelli has an excellent record at Cheltenham, including a win in the Martin Pipe in 2020. Her overall form figures over 20/20.5f here read 12142.

Last season, she was again discounted by the bookies when running a huge race in this contest at 33/1. She was only beaten 4.75L into 4th and this year’s renewal may not be quite as strong. Two of the first three home last season were rated 153 but the two highest rated this time are 150. Due to the stable form, I’ll be keeping stakes low but at 25/1, Indefatigable can hopefully run another solid race and hopefully nick some place money.

2022 Cheltenham Day 1 Tips: Indefatigable e/w @ 25/1 (4 Places)

4.50 – Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

Gaelic Warrior is the favourite here for Mullins and Ricci. If all the talk is to be believed he is a shoo in off a mark of 129. Connections were expecting him to get a much stiffer mark and he is as short as 5/2. He has only raced on heavy ground but his pedigree suggests he’ll be better on this type of a surface. However, it’s his first ever UK run, his first run for Mullins, his first run for 283 days and also his handicap debut. That’s a lot of firsts and he’s not for me at his current odds.

The one I am going to side with off a mark of 126 is Prairie Dancer. Trained by Joseph O’Brien, this son of Territories is a fascinating contender. He comes into this as a maiden over hurdles but he was a good horse on the flat and he ran a cracker behind Icare Allen last time at Fairyhouse in a Grade 3. JJ Slevin’s mount has admittedly run a couple of ordinary races in maidens. However, he has been learning on the job and on the evidence of his last run, he’ll appreciate a strongly run race.

Ground Will Suit

He ran a cracker behind Ben Siegel on good ground at Punchestown in November and his two wins on the level came on good too, so the ground today will be fine for him. This lad wore blinkers for both of his wins on the flat and this will be the first time he has worn them over hurdles. Everything looks set for him to run a big race and at odds of 20/1, Prairie Dancer is the e/w selection.

2022 Cheltenham Day 1 Tips: Prairie Dancer e/w @ 20/1 (6 places B365)

5.30 – National Hunt Challenge Cup (Grade 2)

Along with the X-Country and the Bumper, this is a race I have no time for. Usually, it is a huge field and I end up tipping up an outsider that either pulls up or finishes out with the washing. I do not have a strong opinion on this year’s renewal. If I had to back one it would be Pat’s Fancy on the back of his excellent 2nd behind Bravemansgame. He should stay the distance but with just two places on offer for e/w players, I’m sitting this one out. No Bet.