2022 Cheltenham Day 3 Preview and Tips – DS

by Dave Stevos | Mar 16, 2022

2022 Cheltenham Day 3 Preview and Tips

A solitary place with Diesel D’allier was all we managed on a soggy Wednesday at Cheltenham. The clerk of the course’s decision to water backfired spectacularly and by the time racing started, it was heavy. Unfortunately, that was curtains for Beacon Edge and Tronador who both need it quicker. I Am Maximus wasn’t in love with it either and even the mighty Shishkin couldn’t cope. Il Ridoto ran out of steam on it too. Now we will be faced with tacky, drying ground tomorrow and that makes life even harder. All we can do is try our best, check out Dave Stevos’ Cheltenham Day 3 tips below.

1.30 – Turners’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

A shockingly poor turnout of just four for this 20.5f Grade 1. It is essentially a match between Galopin Des Champs and Bob Olinger. El Barra and Busselton complete the field and the big two have scared off all the UK challengers. The bookies make Bob Olinger the narrow favourite at 11/10 and Galopin is 5/4. Neither horse will appreciate the heavy conditions but on all the available evidence, the De Bromhead horse will handle it better.

He has at least won on heavy (beat Blue Lord) whereas the Mullins’ horse has form figures of 2P on it. Galopin De Champs is a great jumper and a strong traveller but so is Bob Olinger and while he has only won a Grade 3 over the bigger obstacles, he has won multiple G1s over hurdles. Bob Olinger is preferred but this is anything but a betting race. No bet.

2022 Cheltenham Day 3 Tips: No bet

2.10 – Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle (Grade 1)

I have already tipped up Honest Vic for this but I fear the ground has gone on him. When he won over C&D off his current mark it was good ground. He does have winning form on soft but he has never attempted to run on heavy and I’m not sure he’ll enjoy it. With that in mind, I am going to back a horse that is guaranteed to relish the ground.

The Jam Man is trained by Ronan McNally and he is a proper mudlark. He didn’t run well at Leopardstown in February but he ran a blinder when qualifying for this race behind Stayers’ Hurdle hope Sporting John (since ruled out). He was beat just 3L by the winner off a mark of 146 and the handicapper has kindly dropped him to a rating of 144. McNally’s charge had Alaphillipe and Sire Du Berlais 4L behind him that day and they meet on the same terms here.

The Jam Man is more than twice the price of those two horses. I can’t agree with that, especially now the rain has come. This horse won a Troytown by 18L the last time he got heavy ground, the second time he has scored on it. He ran well enough off today’s mark at Cheltenham in January 2020 when 4th so he has track experience and with ground to suit and a top pilot in Mark Walsh booked, The Jam Man is a confident e/w selection at 20/1.

2022 Cheltenham Day 3 Tips: The Jam Man e/w @ 20/1 NAP (7 Places); Already advised Honest Vic e/w.

2.50 – Ryanair Chase (Grade 1)

Supporters of Allaho will not be best pleased with the weather gods. The defending champ destroyed his rivals in this last season on good to soft. However, his sole run on proper heavy ground saw him trail home 34L behind Min at Punchestown. On nice ground this horse is a proper tool. He is an uncomplicated sort who is ridden aggressively and usually, he gallops and jumps his rivals into submission. Will he do that on this kind of ground. Possibly, but he wouldn’t be one for me at 4/6.

Conflated does have previous form on heavy but is he as good as he looked last time? There is no doubt it was an incredible performance at Leopardstown (24.5f yld) but it was probably a stone better than he has ever run before and you’d like to see him repeat that level of form before you could fully trust him. Maybe he is just a rapidly improving horse but 7/1 is a bit short for me and at bigger odds, Eldorado Allen could be the one to be on.

Festival Form

We backed this fella at a massive price in the Arkle last year when he finished 2nd to Shishkin. He has been running well this season, winning two of his four starts. An Exeter win on his return was followed by decent efforts behind First Flow and Mister Fisher at Kempton. Tizzard stepped him up to 23.5f at Newbury (gd/sft) on his last start and he won impressively, beating Royal Pagaille by 2L.

The drop back to 21f is a slight concern but on this ground, it could be an inspired move. He’ll probably have a better chance of wining this than the Gold Cup. Hopefully they’ll go from the front with this fella and bring his proven stamina into play. His rating of 166 leaves him with very little to find with most of his rivals and in fact, only Conflated (168) and the fav are rated higher. He’s a former course winner too and at odds of 16/1, he is the e/w selection.

2022 Cheltenham Day 3 Tips: Eldorado Allen e/w @ 16/1

3.30 – Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

The rain has thrown this race wide open. Flooring Porter was beaten off 119 on his only start on heavy. Klassical Dream has never won on worse than soft (form figures on very soft/heavy: PP32). He flopped on testing ground at Gowran too last time. Paisley Park has won on heavy ground but his very best form is on sounder surfaces. The same applies to Thyme Hill and while Champ handles soft, he has never run on ground this testing.

Of those at the top of the market, Royal Kahala will be best suited by conditions. She was very impressive when beating Klassical Dream at Gowran and she is 2/3 on soft to heavy and heavy ground. She is completely unexposed at this distance and connections will be thrilled that the rain arrived on Wednesday. Peter Fahey’s mare is only 7/1 now though and I am instead going to take a chance on the horse that chased her home at Gowran, Home By The Lee.

Overpriced

Royal Kahala was less than 2L ahead of Home By The Lee at Gowran. She was only maintaining the gap as they came up the home straight and she wasn’t pulling away from him. The O’Brien horse is 40/1 and that is surely a bit too big if Royal Kahala is 7s. This horse had been chasing las season but he lost his way. He reverted to hurdling on his return to action in December and finished a distant 2nd to Darver Star at Punchestown (20f hvy).

That Gowran run was his first ever try over 24f on soft so he is unexposed in these conditions. His last win came at Naas on soft, a track with a stiff uphill finish. He is rated 150 which does leave him with something to find on the figures but there could be more to come from the 7yo son of Fame And Glory and at the current prices, it is worth chancing that he finds enough improvement to be placed. At odds of 40/1, Home By The Lee is the each way selection.

2022 Cheltenham Day 3 Tips: Home By The Lee e/w @ 40/1 nb (4 places)

4.10 – Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

Born By The Sea was my original pick for this but I was hoping for nice ground. He is best on good to soft or better so I’m not surprised to see that he has drifted like a barge. Unfortunately, I think he’ll struggle on the forecast ground but hopefully I’m wrong. My alternative pick for this race is going to be Stolen Silver. Sam Thomas trains this son of Lord Du Sud and on his only heavy ground start he beat Edwardstone in a Grade 2 novice hurdle by a neck.

He has also won on soft ground so he clearly enjoys a bit of cut. Stolen Silver also handles good ground and he ran a cracker behind Editeur Du Gite here over 16f back in November. He was conceding 5lbs to the Moore horse who was effectively running off 135 and he was 4th in the Grand Annual off 152 on Wednesday. On his next outing at Sandown he finished 4th behind Edwardstone in a Grade 1 over 15.5f.

Sam Thomas’ charge was last sighted finishing 3rd on soft ground at Wincanton (20f). He didn’t jump as well as he can and I’d imagine he wasn’t trying for his life in that 10k race. He has finished second twice from four starts at Cheltenham and my guess is that this race has been the plan for a while. If he can see out the trip, I can see him going very close off a mark of 144.

2022 Cheltenham Day 3 Tips: Born By The Sea already advised; Stolen Silver e/w @ 22/1 (6 places)

4.50 – Mares’ Novice Hurdle (Grade 2)

This is not a race to get excited about. 22 will go to post and Willie Mullins trains just under 1/3 of them. Mullins hit form with a vengeance on Wednesday and he has three of the first four in the betting. Dinoblue will be thrilled with the rain and she is the market leader at 5/2. The daughter of Doctor Dino looked a very promising prospect when winning at Clonmel (16.5f hvy). She had a couple of previous and subsequent winners in behind so there is at least some substance to the form. My worry would be her lack of experience coming into a big field like this.

Brandy Love is the mount of Paul Townend and she won’t mind the ground either. She has been beaten in both of her previous tries at Graded level though. Party Central is a Listed winner who won a handicap by 1.5L off 121 last time. She is an improving mare and that big field experience in such a competitive race will stand to her. If I was backing one at the top of the market, it would be her at 7/1.

Ground To Suit

One mare who hasn’t quite achieved as much as some of these but who will love the ground is Choice Of Words for Martin Brassil and Darragh O’Keefe. This daughter of Yeats has form figures of 212 on heavy and both of her career wins have come over 16f/17f. Since her maiden hurdle win at Galway she has been campaigned at 19f/20f and she hasn’t been getting home.

Her sire is a stamina influence but her dam has a speedier pedigree and she is related to flat winners at trips ranging from 6f to 10f. It might just turn out that 16f is this mare’s optimum right now and over this distance, she should be able to get closer to Party Central than she did over 19f at Punchestown. The form of her maiden hurdle win has a little bit of substance to it and she kept on strongly up the Galway hill. At odds of 28/1, Choice Of Words is worth chancing e/w for small stakes.

2022 Cheltenham Day 3 Tips: Choice Of Words e/w @ 33/1 (5 places Lads)

5.30 – Kim Muir Handicap Chase (Grade 1)

You’ve guessed it. My original pick for this race, Lord Accord, is going to hate the ground. He needs it good to soft or quicker and after today’s deluge, he probably has no chance. Hopefully he proves me wrong but I am not too hopeful. The favourite, Frontal Assault, has won on heavy but his very best form is on soft/good to soft so he’s no banker to go on the ground.

One horse who will be well suited by the ground is Mint Condition. This mudlark loves it when the mud is flying. He has to be forgiven a poor effort last time when pulled up at Haydock (28f hvy). However, Brian Hughes never put him into the race so I think it’s best to put a line through that effort. Previously he was outclassed in a Warwick Grade 2 behind Threeunderthrufive and there was no shame in that.

Last Winning Mark

This horse is in off 136 today, the same mark off which he won at Haydock three starts ago (22f hvy). He stayed on really well in that race and it looked to me like he’d get even further. Before that he was beat a neck by Kiltealy Briggs in a novice at the same track (21f hvy) and that is pretty decent form.

The worry is whether he’ll get this trip. On pedigree he should stay 3 miles and I’m not sure he was trying on the two occasions he raced beyond 24f this season. Gina Andrews is a decent pilot (6 wins at this track) and I am hoping she rides this lad a bit more forward today. Hopefully his rivals get stuck in the mud and Mint Condition runs into a place at odds of 33/1.