2022 Cheltenham Festival Favourites: Lump or Lay?

Usually, we focus on trying to find winners at big prices. This time, we are going to change it up a bit. One of the best ways to find a winner at big odds is getting a short priced favourite beaten. At the festival this year, there are several horses that will go off odds on and Dave Stevos is going to put three of the hottest 2022 Cheltenham Festival favourites under the microscope. Is Honeysuckle a dead cert? Can Galopin Des Champs be beaten? Keep reading to find out.

Honeysuckle

Odds: 1.57

Form: 1/1111/1111/111-111

Where better to start than with Champion Hurdle hotpot Honeysuckle. Henry De Bromhead’s mare is 14/14 under rules and she is top rated by 5lbs with a mark of 165. As if that wasn’t enough, she also gets a weight for sex allowance of 7lbs. Appreciate it (160) and the 5yo Teahupoo (160) are next best on ratings. However, they both have questions to answer. Willie Mullins’ charge is having his first start of the season and Gordon Elliott’s gelding has yet to prove he belongs at Grade 1 level.

Appreciate it is clearly an extremely talented horse. If he was at his very best, he’d more than likely put it up to Honeysuckle. However, he had a setback which kept him off the track and to be pitched straight into a race of this nature on his return to action is a massive ask. Willie Mullins is well able to ready one first time up but he’ll make history if he can win the Champion Hurdle with a horse making his seasonal reappearance.

Teahupoo was very impressive on bottomless ground in a G3 at Gowran last time out. He won’t lack for race sharpness and he has improved with every run this season. If it came up very soft, he could be a danger but on good to soft or quicker he is unproven. 5yos haven’t got a brilliant record in this race either and this is a big step up in class. Epatante has 10L to find on last year’s running and of the remainder, Adagio and Tommy’s Oscar look to have place claims at best. Honeysuckle ticks every box and I wouldn’t put anyone off having a wedge on.

2022 Cheltenham Festival Favourites: Honeysuckle @ 1.57 –  Lump

Galopin Des Champs

Odds: 1.83 (Brown Advisory)/2.25 (Turners)

Form: 12P61-111

This son of Timos is trained by Willie Mullins and he made a huge impression in two chase runs this season. First time up at Leopardstown over Christmas (21f yld) he produced an exhilarating round of jumping to win a Novice Chase by half the track. Then, at the Dublin Racing Festival, he didn’t win by quite as far but he still slammed his rivals in a Grade 1 over the same C&D. Master McShee finished 9L behind in second and he won a G1 on his previous start. So, the form stands up to scrutiny.

Galopin Des Champs was a winner over 3 miles when hurdling and if I owned him, I’d probably go for the 24f Brown Advisory. However, he won the Martin Pipe at the Festival last season over 20.5f and from what Willie Mullins has been saying, he is more likely to run in the Turners over the same distance. If he does go down that route, he may have to see off the novice chaser I have been most impressed with this season, L’Homme Presse.

Venetia Williams’ charge’s plans have yet to be confirmed and he too could step up to 24f. However, I think that would be madness given his superb exhibitions of jumping over 20f/21f in all four of his runs this season. Bob Olinger and Bravemansgame are others with the potential to beat Galopin Des Champs and whichever race he runs in, it won’t be anywhere near a penalty kick. At the prices, I’d be a layer rather than a lumper.

2022 Cheltenham Festival Favourites: Galopin Des Champs @ 1.83/2.25 –  Lay

Shishkin

Odds: 1.73

Form: 3/11/F111/11111-11

What a horse this fella is. The 2021 Champion Novice Chaser is 1.73 to extend his unbeaten chasing run to eight. It would take a brave person to bet against him. His seven wins over the bigger obstacles have been won by a combined distance of just over 70L. However, last time at Ascot, Energumene forced the son of Sholokhov to dig deeper than he has ever had to as a chaser in the Clarence House. Shishkin didn’t jump as fluently as he can in that contest and coming to the last, he had a fair bit of ground to make up. However, he picked up brilliantly late on for Nico De Boinville and he had a length to spare at the finish.

Energumene will be taking him on again in the Champion Chase. Can he turn the form around? I don’t think so. He had the run of the race at Ascot and even with Shishkin making a couple of small errors, he still couldn’t beat him. His lack of Cheltenham experience is a massive negative too.

Travel Issues

Chacun Pour Soi has course form but unfortunately, it’s not winning form. He was beaten into 3rd in a far weaker renewal of the Champion Chase last season. On his only other trip to the UK he flopped at Sandown. If the race was at his beloved Leopardstown he might have a chance but given his history away from home, it’s impossible to be overly confident in him.

Of the rest, Nube Negra ran a cracker in this last season but he still came up short. This looks a far stronger race and if Nicky Henderson’s star runs to form, he’ll be playing for place money at best. In fact, I think that the whole lot of these are playing for place money if Shishkin shows what he is truly capable of. Lump away.

2022 Cheltenham Festival Favourites: Shishkin @ 1.73 –  Lump

-DaveStevos