2022 Derby and Oaks Ante-Post Betting Tips – DS
2022 Derby and Oaks Ante-Post Selections
Sunday was a decent day but it could and should have been better. With Love lost ground in the mid part of the race and only for that, I think she would have gone very close. Beautiful Sunshine relished the drop in trip and nicked 2nd. Bear Story and Shahaada were both probably just a bit out of their depth but they weren’t disgraced. I have no explanation for Panama Red, she ran an absolute stinker. Mickey The Steel was beat a neck, a fitting end to the day. Now we are going to focus on the 2022 Derby and Oaks. Dave Stevos has ante-post selections for both, check them out below.
2022 Epsom Derby
On Saturday week the colts will be first to fight it out for glory in the Epsom Derby. This year’s race looks open and Desert Crown is all the rage for Sir Michael Stoute. By Nathaniel, this colt is 2/2 and he looked impressive at York last time (10f gd). He beat Royal Patronage and the rest by over 3L and the bookies were impressed. So was I, but I wouldn’t be fully convinced by the strength of the form. After all, Royal Patronage was well beat in the Guineas and he has now been beaten a total distance of over 26L on his last three outings.
Stone Age is next best in the betting. He was feted as the next big thing after his Navan and Leopardstown wins, until Desert Crown’s York win four days later. A general 5/2 shot, he beat the 98 rated Glory Daze by 5.5L at Leopardstown. The 4th and 5th in that race finished 13L and 6L behind Native Trail on their next starts. His 2yo form wasn’t that spectacular either but even though the form can be knocked, you can never discount a son of Galileo around here, especially one that is owned by The Lads. 5/2 doesn’t appeal to me though, nor does the 9/4 about Desert Crown.
Course Form Not Key
I was fairly sweet on Nahanni for this race at around 25/1. He was impressive when winning a Listed Epsom heat last time so there are no worries about him handling the undulations and camber. However, having checked the stats, not one of the last dozen winners had even run at Epsom before, let alone placed or won there. There is talk of Godolphin supplementing one, or possibly even two, more horses so that suggests that Nahanni may not be giving them much encouragement at home. However, he is proven over 12f and you could back a lot worse 25/1 shots than him.
West Wind Fascinating
At even bigger odds, West Wind Blows is an intriguing contender. He is by one of my favourite sires in Teofilo and he is out of a top class racemare in West Wind. She won a French Derby and was placed in the Irish Pretty Polly, both over 10f. She was also a close 2nd in a 12f Longchamp Group 1. At stud she has produced eight horses that made the track and five have won, including the Group 3 placed Setting Sail. Teofilo is no stranger to success at the highest level either and he has produced multiple Group 1 winners over all sorts of distances.
The form of this fella’s debut Newcastle win isn’t up to much but I liked how he did it. He was clearly green and he took his time to get there but once he did, he kept on well and he was pulling clear close to the line. He returned in a Novice at Nottingham (10f gd) earlier this month and this time, he knew a bit more but he still looked green early on.
Substance
He went off quick from the front and 4f out as his rivals closed, he looked like a sitting duck. Jack Mitchell had evidently been giving him a breather though because once he pushed the button 2f out, West Wind Blows surged clear and won by over 5L. Unlike his Newcastle win, there was substance to that form. Franz Strauss (rated 94) was getting 7lbs from the West WInd Blows and he finished nearly 7L back in 3rd.
Yes, it was only a novice but some big owners and trainers were represented in it and he was giving at least 7lbs to them all. Simon and Ed Crisford’s charge can be a bit of a boyo, as he showed when unseating his jockey on the way to the start when withdrawn at Newbury. He also wears a hood so the key could be getting him through the preliminaries at Epsom without boiling over. If they can keep him calm, this horse has no shortage of ability. At odds of 40/1, he could surprise a few with a big run.
2022 Derby and Oaks Ante Post Tip: West Wind Blows e/w @ 40/1
2022 Epsom Oaks
On Friday, the fillies will take centre stage for the Oaks. Unlike the Derby, we have a red hot fav in Emily Upjohn. Trained by John Gosden, this filly’s odds were slashed after her dominant display in the Musidora. She absolutely hacked up in that 10.5f heat, backing up the impression she made on her return when winning even more easily at Haydock.
That made it 3 wins from 3 starts and she’ll have the assistance of Frankie in the saddle. My only concern is the trip. Her dam was a non-stayer at 12f and connections will be hoping that Sea The Stars has injected plenty of stamina. I’m not saying she won’t stay but it isn’t guaranteed. At even money, I’ll be looking elsewhere for a bet.
Moon Could Shine For Beckett
At a much juicier price, Moon De Vega is an interesting contender. She took three goes before she got off the mark last season at Doncaster (8f sft). The handicapper didn’t think much of that win and handed her a mark of 80. Connections resisted the temptation to go for a handicap on her comeback as they went in search of black type in the Cheshire Oaks (11.5f sft). She just missed out in 4th but they at least learned that they have a classy filly on their hands.
Moon De Vega was interfered with soon after the start and Rob Hornby had to sit an suffer on the inside behind the leaders. Just as he went to angle her out, he got stuck in behind the rapidly retreating Morning Poem and Night Battle. Above The Curve and Typewriter swept past as Hornby had nowhere to go and once the gap came, they had nicked at least 10-15 lengths on her.
In the straight, Moon De Vega stayed on very powerfully when she found daylight. I’d imagine her final 2 furlongs were as fast as, if not faster, than the horses who finished in front of her. Thoughts Of June and Above The Curve finished 1-2 that day and they are 16s and 14s respectively for the Oaks. Moon De Vega is 33s and she’s the one I’d be taking out of that race. On breeding, better ground shouldn’t be an issue and Beckett knows an Oaks filly when he sees one. At 40/1, Moon De Vega is the e/w pick.
