2022 Dutch GP Preview and Betting Tips – JP
2022 Dutch GP Preview and Tips
Mighty Max Verstappen stormed to another victory at the Belgian GP. Can he hammer home his advantage in Holland? See what our F1 guru James Punt thinks in his 2022 Dutch GP preview.
2022 Dutch GP Preview
Max Verstappen only has to go through the motions to retain his title. However, with this being his (second) home grand prix, he will want to win his 11th race of the season.
Last year was the first time this revised Zandvoort circuit was used to host an F1 race. It was the Dutchman who won, having secured pole position narrowly from the two Mercedes. As a race it was far from memorable. The first five on the grid finished in exactly the same order. Only Perez, who started from the pit lane having taken a penalty, made any great progress in the race, finishing 8th.
Hard To Pass
Clearly, overtaking is not easy here which explains why so many drivers took engine penalties in Belgium, with the Spa-Francorchamps circuit allowing much more opportunity to make up places. This track is a short one, squeezed into a small piece of real estate. It features 14 corners over its 4.25 km length. It is a higher downforce track than Spa with many more slow corners and just the one long start – finish straight.
This is a narrow track and a very busy lap with corners coming thick and fast. There are banked corners at various points, which caught a few drivers out. This year will see the final DRS zone start at the start of the banked Tarzan curve. That was considered too dangerous last year, but it has been decided to give it a whirl in FP1, to see whether it is safe. It is a much less power sensitive circuit, and the general opinion is that it is more of a Ferrari track, than Red Bull one.
Similar To Hungary
The track is not unlike the Hungaroring in that it is a short lap, high downforce, hard to overtake on, has 14 corners and the just the one long straight. This year’s race in Hungary produced a shock pole for George Russell and a disastrous qualifying for Red Bull who could only manage 10th and 11th. The Mercs were second and third come the race, but it was Verstappen who won by nearly 8 seconds and after surviving a 360 degree spin. He has won the last two races, despite starting 10th and 14th. Both wins came on very different type of tracks.
The problem for Ferrari is that Red Bull showed much better pace in the slower sector two at Spa. That was the part of the track that was going to favour Ferrari. It was Verstappen who was fastest in sector two, not by much, but he was basically faster in the fast, medium and slow stuff. Anyone thinking that Ferrari will be faster at Zandvoort may be disappointed. Closer yes, but faster?
Execution Issues For Ferrari
Even if Ferrari are little faster, they still have to execute the race and they are proving to be consistently unable to operate effectively. Even their attempt to get the fastest lap for Leclerc went wrong. He came out behind Alonso, which may not have helped, but Leclerc was not fast enough to beat Verstappen’s faster lap as he was trying to do it on used tyres.
Ferrari had wasted a fresh set in qualifying when they put on the wrong tyres. To make things worse, Leclerc received a 5 second penalty for speeding in the pit lane dropping him back behind Alonso at the finish. Red Bull, on the other hand, were pretty much flawless despite Verstappen taking a big grid penalty. They got pole, race win, fastest lap and a 1-2 finish.
Gold Standard
Red Bull have a car that is now the gold standard, regardless of the track. It just produces more downforce without the usual drag. Verstappen is in a position of total dominance and the regulation changes introduced at the last race failed to slow them down. If anything, it was Ferrari and Mercedes who seemed to lose some performance. And Red Bull have not introduced their proposed lightweight chassis, yet.
Max Verstappen is the 1.61 favourite and that is hard to argue with.
Charles Leclerc has won just one of the last eleven races and he has one podium finish in the last nine. He has dropped 21 points to teammate Carlos Sainz in the last three races. The game is up for him and Ferrari, and it is Sainz who is now getting the better results, beating Leclerc in seven of the last nine races.
High Hopes
Mercedes had high hopes going into the Belgian GP. The new regulations would bring them closer to the big two. On the back of their Hungarian pole, it all looked good, especially when Leclerc and then Verstappen announced they would be taking penalties for new power units.
In the end, they just didn’t have the pace and by a big margin. They were poor, but Russell still manged a 4th place finish. The car’s race pace was better but nowhere near the Red Bull. They will be hoping that a return to a high downforce circuit will see them get back into contention again.
Alpine cemented their 4th place credentials with a 5th and 7th for Alonso and Ocon respectively in Belgium. We got the double points finish bet up, but Ocon was handicapped with a penalty which meant starting 15th and he missed 6th place by just 0.7 seconds in the end. They don’t have the pace of the big three but are best of the rest as things stand. They enjoyed another double points finish here last year, 6th and 9th, and something similar can be expected again this weekend.
McLaren Misery
McLaren failed to score a point in Belgium, both drivers stuck behind Albon’s Williams for a large part of the race. A lack of straight line speed didn’t help and they should be more optimistic on this lay out. However, they didn’t shine in Hungary either and only managed a point here last year. Norris at least should be back in the points, he is a big fan of the track, but Ricciardo has only managed four top 10s all season. This was McLaren’s worst track of 2021 and they do look a bit low on confidence.
Alfa Romeo extended their pointless run to five races after drawing another blank at Spa. Haas have now gone three races without a point, but they are more optimistic that his track will be much more to their liking. They do not enjoy low downforce tracks, but they haven’t exactly shone on the high downforce ones either. At least both will have the new upgrade and no penalties.
Alpha Tauri Need Points
Alpha Tauri ended their five race pointless streak in Belgium when Gasly finished ninth after having to start from the pit lane. They are just five points shy of Haas in in 7th place and both teams will be desperate to get a point or two on board, especially as Aston Martin continue to creep up on both.
Aston Martin have scored points in seven of the last eight races. However, four of those were just a single point for tenth place. Their qualifying pace remains very poor and that may hurt them on this tight, twisty track.
Williams scored another point at Spa, with Albon making the most of the car’s straight line speed to hold of a number of faster cars to grab 10th. Straight line speed will be of much less use here and I expect them to be propping up the field again this weekend.
Qualifying Key
With just the one race here, it is hard to use past form as much of a guide. As the track is narrow and largely twisty in nature, qualifying is going to be important as overtaking will not be easy here.
With the Hungarian GP looking to be a reasonable form guide it should mean Ferrari being more competitive. Red Bull are competitive everywhere now and while they had problems in qualifying in Hungary, their race pace was more than good enough.
Mercedes is the confusing one. They didn’t look especially quick in practice but suddenly hit their sweet spot in qualifying with Russell on pole and Hamilton 7th, despite his DRS not working on his final run. They followed that up with a very disappointing Belgian GP weekend. Russell finished 4th so they are likely to be in the hunt for a podium come Sunday, but with overtaking hard, they will need to do better on Saturday.
The weather forecast over the weekend is OK. Warm and dry on Friday and Sunday, we could get some showers for qualifying which could mix things up, but it is hard to say if we will actually get any rain.
2022 Dutch GP: Summary
Red Bull look strong everywhere and Verstappen is the man to beat. Ferrari have the potential to be competitive if they don’t drop the ball in the same way as they did in Hungary. It is hard to have much confidence in a team that perform so poorly under pressure, and they can find ways to lose, even when fastest. Guessing when Mercedes hit their sweet spot is hard as they don’t know how to find it.
Alpine should be best of the rest again. Their car performs consistently everywhere. They filled the third row in Hungary but lost out when switching to the hard tyres at their first stop and were the first to discover that the hard tyre was very slow. Once bitten and all that.
Norris Solid In Qualifying
Lando Norris looked very strong in free practice in Hungary, and he qualified fourth but only manged to finish seventh, losing out to the faster Red Bulls and Hamilton who had struggled in qualifying. The Norris vs. Alpine battle will be close.
The short wheelbase Alfa Romeo should be more at home here but they are out of form and unreliable. I wouldn’t rule out a point or two, but the odds would need to be better to take a chance on them.
Ferrari have been a bit more competitive when it comes to qualifying. Leclerc and Verstappen both have an average qualifying position of 2.71, but the tide has turned in Verstappen’s favour here as well. He has been the fastest qualifier in three of the last six races, Leclerc once, along with Russell and Sainz.
Different Track To Spa
This is a very different track to last weekend’s, but Ferrari are not blaming the nature of Spa for their lack of competitiveness, just accepting that Red Bull is the better car. They should be closer this weekend, but even if they will close the speed differential, will they continue to suffer with the higher tyre degradation? The Red Bull doesn’t seem to have a weakness, the Ferrari has plenty.
There is no compelling argument to say that Verstappen will not win again this weekend. They are fast on the straights, but now also faster in the corners. Operationally Red Bull are in a different league to Ferrari and Verstappen is in the best form of his life.
2022 Dutch GP Tip: 2 points Max Verstappen to win @ 1.61 with SpreadEx
Mercedes had torrid weekend in Belgium, but Russell still ended up in 4th and he wasn’t miles away from a podium. Hamilton had enjoyed a run of five straight podiums before his first lap exit last week when battling for second place with Alonso. Hamilton had been in the ascendancy before last weekend, finishing ahead of Russell in the six races preceding Spa.
The car had good race pace, very good race pace, on the high downforce Hungaroring and with warmer weather forecast for this weekend, they should get conditions to suit.
It is tempting to leave this bet until Sunday as it is likely Mercedes will struggle in qualifying, but they found, or stumbled across, their sweet spot for qualifying in Hungary and may do so again, so I’ll go early.
2022 Dutch GP Tip: 1 point Lewis Hamilton to finish on the podium @ 2.85 with Pokerstars
I am going to persevere with Esteban Ocon to finish in the top 6. He was hampered by the engine penalty last weekend but only just missed out, finishing 7th. His qualifying performances have seen him qualify top 6 in three of the last four and something similar this weekend and he is going to be there or thereabouts at the end of the race.
2022 Dutch GP Tip: 1 point Esteban Ocon to finish in the top 6 @ 3.00 with Skybet, Betvictor
The odds for Sainz to beat teammate Leclerc remain odds against, despite him beating him in seven of the last nine races. Leclerc fans can point to bad luck, like getting a tear off stuck in his brake duct last weekend, but Sainz has been getting the upper hand in qualifying recently as well.
Certainly, the advantage that Leclerc had over Sainz in the first half of the season has gone. Sainz remains an underrated driver. He gets the job done, gets the most out of what he has got and makes fewer mistakes than Leclerc.
