2022 Dutch GP Qualifying Update and Tips – JP
2022 Dutch GP Qualifying Update and Tips
If you want to have an outright bet on this race, check out this preview. Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2022 Dutch GP Qualifying Update. Get his tips for this afternoon’s session below.
2022 Dutch GP Qualifying
It has been an interesting weekend so far and it looks like we have four or five drivers in with a shout of pole position.
Friday was not good for Red Bull, Verstappen only got 7 laps in before his gearbox broke, and he missed the rest of the session. He was well off the pace in FP2, down in eighth place.
The team made changes overnight, taking a bit of wing off by the looks of it, and Max ended up third, 0.161 off Charles Leclerc with George Russell second fastest and just 0.066 off the Ferrari.
It is so close that it is all about the drivers this afternoon. Who will be able to put a faultless lap on what is a tricky track to nail? It was clear that Max was struggling with his Red Bull, and it is harder car to drive here than it was in Belgium last weekend.
High Downforce
The Mercedes and Ferraris are more effective on high downforce tracks and crucially for Mercedes, they have decent, warm conditions with the track temperature 33 degrees (it was 30 degrees in Hungary when Russell took that surprise pole).
Leclerc and Verstappen have exactly the same qualifying average in 2022 and the Ferrari is at its best over one lap on a busy lap like this. The fact that this track is not rewarding the Red Bull’s straight line performance could be enough to make Leclerc the most likely to get the pole today. He was quickest in FP2 and FP3 while Russell was fastest in FP1.
Sweet Spot
Leclerc has only had the one pole in the last six races, Verstappen three and Russell one. The Mercedes are generally off the pace in qualifying, except for that one shock in Budapest. Clearly, they have found the sweet spot on this track and both Russell and Hamilton are in the frame. They are 7-7 in qualifying and both are 11.00 shots for pole today.
Max Verstappen is the 2.20 favourite for pole, Leclerc 2.50, Sainz 10.00 and the two Mercedes drivers 11.00.
Verstappen was struggling with the car’s handling in FP3 and unless they can get it perfectly to his liking, he looks a poor value favourite. Leclerc makes some appeal at 6.50, he has seven poles this season, as does Russell. Mr. Saturday is a match for Hamilton in qualifying and it was he who got the job done in Budapest. At least this weekend, we can see that the Mercedes is competitive and a pole would not come out of the blue.
2022 Dutch GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point George Russell to be the fastest qualifier @ 11.00 generally available
Fastest qualifier without the big 6 would seem to be between the Alpines and Lando Norris. The McLaren is more at home on these high downforce tracks but the Alpine is good everywhere. It was Alonso who was best of the rest in FP3, 0.164 faster than Vettel in the Aston Martin which always falls back in qualifying. Schumacher was next best and Norris was 0.264 off Alonso’s time. Norris will be closer.
The one to watch has to be Ocon. He has been faster in qualifying than Alonso in three of the last four qualifying sessions despite being slower in free practice. He has been best of the rest in two of the last four and he remains a little underrated.
2022 Dutch GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Esteban Ocon to be fastest qualifier without the big six @ 6.00 with Ladbrokes
Valtteri Bottas is having another bad weekend. 18th in all three sessions and slower than teammate Zhou in two of the three. Zhou is 4-3 up in the last seven qualifying sessions and he looks a touch of value at odds against. He has been slowly getting better as the team have been getting worse and this looks like a coin toss to me.
