2022 Dutch GP Raceday Update and Tips

James landed one winner in his qualifying update and he is hungry for more today. Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2022 Dutch GP Raceday Update.

2022 Dutch GP Raceday Preview

With just last year’s race here as a guide for what might happen, it is harder than usual to predict how things will go today.

The one thing that stood out in last year’s race, was the lack of overtaking. The first five on the grid finished in exactly the same order as they started. All the way down the grid, drivers made little progress.

There were just two DNF’s and a very late retirement for Russell, so drivers didn’t make up many places via attrition. Perez started from the pit lane and finished eighth, but he was in the best car. Norris made up three places from 13th and Alonso also made up three places, but the rest of the field stayed relatively static. Giovinazzi dropped seven places from 7th on the grid.

The chances to overtake were largely limited to the first lap. There was a lot of bumping and barging as the cars tried to gain places and expect more of that today.

More Overtaking?

Of course, this year we have ground effect cars which are designed to allow the cars to follow more closely which may allow for more overtakes, and the DRS zone has been extended to include the Tarzan banked curve. Whether that will be enough remains to be seen.

The F3 and F2 races didn’t see a lot of overtaking, but we did see a lot of the safety car. With the track being built on such a small area, there is not a lot of run off room. Anyone going off the track can easily get stuck in gravel or in the barriers, even from modest speeds.

The F2 race was very stop-start with various accidents bring out the safety car and there was a red flag when a car damaged the tech-pro barriers. It was a bit of a farce. The Porsche Super Cup was a crash fest and it eventually finished under a Red Flag. Expect to see the safety car at some point (or points) which will bunch the field, so I don’t expect a runaway winner.

The lack of overtaking should be good news for Verstappen. The Red Bulls straight line speed will help him defend on the most likely overtaking spot, but he still needs a good opening lap and the chance to open a 1 second gap before the DRS kicks in.

Two Stop Strategy

Race strategy is likely to be a two stopper, with the top cars starting on the softs before two stops for medium tyres. The Red Bulls, Ferraris, Mercedes and Schumacher all have two sets of new mediums. Norris, Tsunoda and Stroll have just one. Verstappen is the only one with a brand-new set of softs with which to start the race on.

A pit stop here is quite slow due to a lower pit lane speed limit. This makes a one stopper tempting but bringing the hard tyre into play is not. It is around 1 second a lap slower, so a one stopper is more likely with a soft-medium-soft combination. That would take a lot of tyre management and would be hard to make pay off.

In any case, there is a high chance of a safety car or more mixing things up and strategies will have to be fluid.

It looks like we will have a mad opening lap and then processional racing broken only by pit stops and any safety car deployments throwing up threats and opportunities. It is a great track for selling a lot of tickets for Verstappen fans, but not a great racetrack.

Verstappen Hot Fav

Verstappen is the 1.55 favourite and as we have already backed him, there is no need to be getting involved any further in the winner market. He should do it from pole position and having a brand-new set of tyres for the start is very useful.

The two Ferrari’s in 2nd and 3rd place can be used in teamwork. Giving the following Ferrari a tow to stay in touch and they might play a part with different pit stop strategies, but Ferrari trying to do something clever is likely to end in tears.

Mercedes’ stronger race pace gives them a chance and on most other tracks a win could be on the cards, but this looks like a track that won’t reward their race pace. They will be looking at putting pressure on Ferrari who are their real targets today.

Both are evenly matched on pace, but I’d rather have the Mercedes pit wall and crew executing a race than Ferrari’s. Hopefully Hamilton will be able to make up a place, or Ferrari drop one at least. He will have to be more circumspect than he was on the first lap last week.

Out Of Position

There are a few drivers out of position on the grid. Ricciardo in the McLaren starts 17th while his teammate is 7th. Ricciardo (and Vettel) hit a load of soil and sand dragged onto the track in Q1 and he missed out. He has a car that is capable of a top 10, but this track is very qualifying position dependant, so it will be hard work for him to get into the points.

The Two Alpines missed out on reaching Q3. Alonso got some traffic which he says cost him 6th place. He did make up places last year, mostly on the first lap if I remember correctly, so expect him to get his elbows out on lap 1. My quest to get Ocon into the top 6 looks doomed again. He has not been happy with the rear end of his car all weekend.

Mick Schumacher is out of position in a good way in 8th place. The car is stronger on high downforce tracks, and it is not impossible for him to score a point or two, but he is going to have to ‘do an Albon’ and hold off faster cars for a long time. Lando Norris expects a lonely race with the six faster cars ahead to drive off into the distance and Schumacher holding up the fast cars behind him for as long as possible.

Take A Stroll

Lance Stroll starts 10th after a problem prevented him running in Q3, but the Aston has good race pace and so long as the problem doesn’t re-occur, he should score points. He has started tenth once before this season, in Miami, and he also finished tenth that day.

On average this season, he has made up 4.17 places per race. He won’t do that today as he is starting up with the faster cars, but the Aston, like the Mercedes, has been a better race car than qualifier and so long as the car behaves mechanically, he looks good for a top 10 finish.

2022 Dutch GP Raceday Update Tip: 1 point Lance Stroll to finish in the points @ 2.00 with Sporting Index

Alpha Tauri have yet to score a double points finish this season but they might not get a better chance than today. Tsunoda qualified 9th and Gasly 11th. They were flattered by the struggles of Alpine, Ricciardo and Vettel but those are the breaks you need. Who is to say they won’t get more luck in the race. It doesn’t always have to be bad luck. It will be hard, but the odds are big enough to take a chance.

2022 Dutch GP Raceday Update Tip: 1 point Alpha Tauri to have a double points finish @ 6.50 with Ladbrokes

At the back of the grid we have Sebastian Vettel in the Aston Martin starting 19th. The car has top 10 pace, but his qualifying was compromised. He knows that scoring points will be very hard from where he starts on this this track, but he should be able to make some progress.

Starting three places ahead, is Valtteri Bottas in the Alfa Romeo, which has fallen off a cliff in the second half of the season. Bottas starts 16th but has been slower than just about everyone bar Latifi.

Vettel has finished ahead of Bottas in five of the last seven races, a complete reversal of the first half of the season, when the Alfa was a much better car than the Aston Martin. Making up three places on this track will not be easy, but Vettel is a wise old fox and in a faster car he should beat the struggling Bottas.

2022 Dutch GP Raceday Update Tip: 1 point Vettel to beat Bottas @ 1.75 with Pokerstars

JamesPunt