2022 Emilia-Romagna GP Qualifying Update – JP
2022 Emilia-Romagna GP Qualifying Update
It is almost time for the Sprint Race and it is shaping up to be a thriller. James Punt has already penned an outright betting preview, see it by clicking here. You can check out his 2022 Emilia-Romagna GP Qualifying Update below.
Qualifying Update
To say this weekend has been confusing would be an understatement. The weather has played its part, but also the fact that this is a sprint race weekend.
Yesterday’s FP1 and qualifying were held in cold, wet conditions. Getting the tyres warm was taking two or even three laps and clearly some teams never got the tyres to switch on.
This morning’s FP2 session was held in beautiful warm and sunny conditions. The track temperature was 31 degrees today, but only 15 degrees yesterday. Not quite night and day, but not far off.
As a result, we have seen drivers moving from the bottom end of the time sheets, to near the top, and vice versa. Only Leclerc and Alonso have kept themselves around the same sort of placings all weekend.
Teams will have been running different programs in different sessions and even today we had some cars using the DRS and others not.
I’ll take a quick spin through the teams and see if anything can be predicted from the Alphabetti Spaghetti we have been served up so far.
Ferrari
Looked untouchable in the wet FP1 session. Clearly able to get the wet weather tyres switched on, and they were in a different formula. Leclerc was fastest in FP1 but lost out to Verstappen in the qualifying session. His qualifying run wasn’t his best, but he was 0.788 slower than Verstappen, having been 1.465 faster in FP1. Quite the turnaround.
Sainz was second fastest in FP1 but binned his Ferrari in Q2 and ended up 10th. He did not need a stupid mistake like that after the disappointment of Melbourne. Clearly still in the mix for the sprint and race, but it’s hard to say where they stand relative to Red Bull. Leclerc hinted that he didn’t have the tyres warm enough in Q3 which may explain a large chunk of that gap.
Red Bull
Verstappen found a heap of time in qualifying and starts the sprint race from pole position. He was slow again this morning, but it is likely he was gathering data for the two races to come. Perez didn’t really fire in the wet but looked better in the dry, setting the second fastest time.
Alpine
Only Alonso is running the new floor and it would be working well. Never worse than 7th in any session and looking good for the rest of the weekend, fingers crossed. Ocon on the other hand has been nowhere, with 13th in FP1 his highest placing.
McLaren
Where do you start with McLaren? Very slow in FP1 and then 3rd and 6th in qualifying. In the warmer, dry conditions this morning Ricciardo never took to the track as the team fixed an unspecified problem with his car. Norris only managed six laps after he developed more brake problems.
Haas
After a disappointing Melbourne GP, Haas bounced back with 4th and 5th in FP1. Magnussen was 4th again in qualifying, but they were 12th and 13th this morning. Were they just good in the wet? This is one of the dilemmas the teams have this weekend. There is still a 60% chance of rain for tomorrow afternoon. I have heard most of the drivers saying that the race will be dry, but they may be wrong. It will not be like Friday, however. It will be cooler than today, but warmer than Friday, and any rain is likely to be light. Maybe Haas have taken a gamble on a rain affected race and may have set the car up accordingly?
Mercedes
Crap in the cold and wet. Hamilton could only manage 18th and 13th in FP1 and qualifying, Russell a more respectable 10th and 11th. Come today’s sunny session and Russell was fastest and Hamilton 4th. They had raised the ride height and the porpoising which was chronic yesterday, was not so bad. They did use DRS to set their best laps so they are artificially high in the time sheets, but they do look much better on a warm track, even with pretty bad graining. It was noticeable that Russell is getting more out of the car and Hamilton is tripping over his bottom lip again.
Alfa Romeo
Looked decent for Bottas again, but their very poor reliability continues, and he was not able to run a single lap today. He has no reference for how the track will feel in the much better conditions. It is very hard to say much more about them. There is potential for more points, but a DNF is equally likely.
Alpha Tauri
I was expecting better form the local team, but they were poor in the wet and start todays sprint race from 16th and 17th. They found better pace this morning, ending up 8th and 9th. Not earth shattering, but they look happier on a dry, warmer track.
Aston Martin
I don’t know if Vettel has some new upgrades that Stroll doesn’t, but he was OK on Friday, with 8th in FP1 and 9th in qualifying. Stroll has been consistently in the mid-teens and was joined by Vettel in 15th this morning. The cold, wet conditions made everyone slow, and Aston Martin didn’t look so bad. In the better conditions, they were out the back again.
Williams
Poor in the cold and wet yesterday but Albon was 11th this morning. Latifi is a waste of space but Albon could be OK in the dry.
Predictions
This afternoon’s Sprint Race is different from last year in that the winner gets 8 points, second place 7, third six and all the way down to one point for eighth. Last year only the top three scored points on a 3,2,1 basis. There are now two benefits to winning this race, more points and pole position for tomorrows main event.
The first thing for the likes of Ferrari and Red Bull to do, is not crash. A DNF this afternoon would be a disaster. For Leclerc, he might try and jump Verstappen on the long starting straight, but Verstappen could get his elbows out and call his bluff. Carlos Sainz starts in tenth and he needs to be careful. He can’t afford to bin it again, just bring it home as high up as possible without taking risks.
Verstappen starts has the 2.10 favourite for this Sprint Race, Charles Leclerc 2.25. I can’t see any value there but is hard to see past one of them winning, unless they crash and I suspect they know that finishing the race is key.
Interesting Battle
The most interesting battle will be Alonso vs. Magnussen. The Haas starts fourth, Alonso fifth. They have Norris in the McLaren ahead of them, but how he will go is anybody’s guess. I suspect backwards but with virtually no running for the team in the warmer conditions today, who knows.
Alonso is a great starter, not afraid to find, and go for a gap. His car doesn’t have the pace to race the front two, but third place is possible. Overtaking here is hard and the other two fast cars, Perez and Sainz, start from seventh and tenth respectively. They have only got 21 laps, or 30 minutes to make up those lost places.
Safety Car Likely
I suspect it will be 30 minutes as it is very likely that we get a safety car or seven. The track is too confined for any crashed, spun off or broken-down cars to be recovered with got a safety car. The F2 and F3 races have been farcical with multiple yellow flags, safety cars and red flags. That could cause the field to bunch up regularly and anyone who is brave enough to go overtaking could fine themselves rewarded, or out.
Alonso and Magnussen are unlikely to be shrinking violets and while they want big points, they are not championship contenders and both want podiums. Today they have a chance. The Alpine, with its new floor has looked good in all conditions, the Haas maybe not so good in the dry.
2022 Emilia-Romagna GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Fernando Alonso to finish on the Sprint Race Podium @ 4.00 with BET365
Not many bookies are bothering with this Sprint race in terms of side markets, but Ladbrokes have a decent range. It is just the usual teammate vs. teammate H2H’s but they might be a bit of value in one.
Yuki Tsunoda has been faster than Gasly in every session so far. He lives near the circuit, and this really is a ‘home race’ for him, sleeping in his own bed and all that. He looks a bit more comfortable in these new cars and he is just about worth backing at odds against to finish ahead of Gasly this afternoon.
