2022 Formula 1 Season Preview and Tips – JP
2022 Formula 1 Season Preview
The 2022 Formula 1 season will see the biggest regulation shake up since 2014. It is designed to produce closer racing and more overtaking. The FIA is hoping that the new regulations, in conjunction with the cost cap introduced last year, and the aero development handicapping system, will reduce the gap between the leading cars and the slowest cars to around half of what it was in 2021.
This would be unlike any of the previous resets in F1. Normally, any big changes favour the richer teams as they threw more resources at any problems. With a budget cap, the big teams have limits on those resources, and they must work smarter rather than spend their way to success.
2022 Formula 1 Season: Field Not Totally Levelled
This is not to say that the cost cap completely levels the playing field. Driver’s salaries are not included in the cap, so the big teams can afford the top talent. The teams top three salaries paid to employees are also excluded from the cap, so the richer teams can attract the top talent in terms of designers or engineers.
The teams knew when the cost cap was coming, it was supposed to start last year but was delayed by 12 months thanks to the pandemic. It was possible for the teams to increase capital spending in the months running up to the start of the cost cap. And the richer teams could spend more before the cost cap kicked in last year.
The big teams will still have a financial advantage, will still have the best personnel and infrastructure, but the gap should shrink year by year. Teams can start making profits again and that will encourage new entrants and already there is talk of the Volkswagen group entering with one of their brands, such as Audi or Porsche. They would likely like to take over an existing team, but Andretti Racing are still keen to start a team after their attempt to buy out Sauber/Alfa Romeo failed last year.
Not As Competitive As 2021
The budget cap does not automatically mean we will get a more competitive season, in fact, it would be a surprise if it was anywhere near as competitive than 2021. Performance tends to converge when regulations are stable and diverge when they change. It may well be that one team finds the sweet spot from the word go, that some team finds a loophole, the silver bullet, and starts, Brawn like, with a winning car which everyone is else is chasing.
With a cost cap in place, it could take longer of the rest to play catchup. Hopefully we do not see a repeat of the 2014 regulation changes. That changed Formula 1 into an engine formula rather than an aero formula. Mercedes had spent more time and money preparing for the new era, and it took eight years for Red Bull to finally catch them.
The changes are aerodynamic in nature, and we will see a lot of development throughout the season, all within the budget cap of course, as teams get to grips with the new cars. The regulations are more prescriptive than before, giving the teams less scope for exploiting the new regs, but there are different concepts on different cars.
2022 Formula 1 Season: Lots Of Changes
Will the regulation changes change the well-established pecking order? Perhaps. There is little carryover from last year, the power units are largely the same (there are some new FIA sensors fitted) but just about everything else changes. That means being fast in 2022 has little to do with how quick you were in 2021.
The teams will be working to improve their power units within the current regulations but after the start of the season, that is it. There is a freeze on them until 2025 when new power unit specifications will be introduced.
The cars are going to be quite different. The aerodynamics are different, the idea is to make following a car in front easier and overtaking more likely. The new design will dramatically reduce the loss of downforce on the car following behind another. The ‘dirty air’ created by the new cars will be moved outwards and upwards, to leave the air behind the car relatively stable, which will give the chasing car more downforce and predictable handling.
Different Wings
The front and rear wings look different and again the changes are designed to minimise the creation of dirty air. The rear wing will still have a DRS and it will be interesting to see if the DRS becomes more powerful with the less disturbed air the car is moving through. If it does, again more overtaking is likely.
The changes in the aero regulations open up new possibilities. It is likely some teams will exploit the new regulations better than others. The floor of the car will be the focus of exploiting the new regs. More of the car’s downforce will come from the floor than was the case, and whoever does the best job of generating the most downforce from the floor, will be in good shape.
The cars need to be close to the ground and will run stiffer suspension to keep the airflow under the car strong and sealed in as much as possible. There will be no more high rake cars and running as close to the ground as possible will create problems on bumpy tracks and tracks with harsh kerbs. The FIA have warned teams that they will be watching very carefully for any tricks to help seal the airflow under the cars.
Floor Workarounds
In the old days when we had ground effect cars, the teams fitted the side of the floor with ‘skirts’ to seal the air flow and produce phenomenal downforce. There are no skirts allowed but the teams will be looking for ways to mimic them, within the rules. Expect this to be an area of contention.
Expect lots attempts by teams to stop anyone getting a sneaky peak at their floors. Whoever gets it right will be copied, but it will take a while to spot what is different and then more time to understand why it works, before attempting to emulate it. Like Brawn’s trick diffuser back in 2009, they had effectively won the Championships before anybody else had been able to copy them. However, with a 23 race season ahead, teams that start slowly in 2022 will have more races in which to claw back any deficit.
2022 Formula 1 Season: Changing Tyres & Fuel
It is not only the cars that are changing, but the tyres as well. Pirelli will be introducing their more road relevant 18 inch wheels. Testing has seen generally positive feedback and the main aim is to have less degradation, allowing drivers to push the tyres harder and for longer. It is another attempt to allow for better racing, but it is also likely to increase the number of one stop races.
Even the fuel is changing. The E10 fuel will contain 10% biofuels to further enhance the green credentials of the most efficient engines ever built. It is reckoned that this will decrease power by around 20bhp. There could be a competitive advantage here for whomever creates the best marriage between fuel and power unit.
The fuel must comply with the FIA regs, but each fuel supplier will make their own blend, so differences are possible. The fuels were fixed from 1st March and only changes for the purposes of improved reliability will be permitted.
Racing Should Improve
In a nutshell, the new regulations should improve the racing. It will help the car behind get closer to the car it is following without losing as much downforce and keeping the tyres in better condition. We shall see how it plays out but it would seem that the advantage enjoyed by qualifying in pole position will not be what it used to be.
Fast cars that find themselves near the back of the grid after a bad qualifying or grid penalties, should be able to move through the field more easily, so we should see more heroic drives from the back or middle of the pack. Will race pace now be the defining factor? Are the days of Mercedes dominating qualifying and hence the races, gone? It would seem so, and the relevance of qualifying could be diminished.
With such major regulation changes this year, there is a chance that the pecking order could change and do so quite spectacularly. Everyone is starting from scratch (power units excepted) and they didn’t even have anything to copy until testing started and everyone is looking at the other cars to see other’s solutions to the new regs.
2022 Formula 1 Season: New Regs Well Defined
The new regulations are well defined, but this does not mean that everyone will come up with very similar solutions. There is not masses of wriggle room for the designers, but that does not preclude one team coming up with a loophole, something that nobody saw coming. This was the case in 2009 when major regulation changes saw Brawn coming up with the famous double diffuser.
It may also be the case that some team or teams do a bad job and arrive at the first test with a poor car. In 2009, that was McLaren. They went from champs to chumps while Brawn and Red Bull jumped way up the pecking order. We shall find out soon enough, but we should not be surprised to see some team principles with their head in their hands, and some grinning like a Cheshire cat.
2022 Formula 1 Season: Team-by-Team Rundown
Mercedes
Winter saw Mercedes working hard on improving the reliability of their power units. The power units are not changing under the new regulations and the designs will be frozen, so it is important that Mercedes are not locking in any fundamental weakness in the design.
The driver line up has changed for the first time in five years and that is a big deal. Bottas was an ideal number two driver. Not fastest enough to really challenge Hamilton over the whole season, but quick enough to make a good contribution to the team’s points haul. There was very little friction between the two drivers which made life easier for everyone.
Will Russell Be A Team Player?
George Russell might not be as compliant. He is the long-term project for the team. Hamilton is 37 years old and who knows how long he will wish to carry on. Winning that record eighth title will be an incentive, but if Mercedes find themselves not being the leading team under the new regulations, find themselves not winning races, will Hamilton begin to get demotivated? And if he were to find himself being outpaced by Russell? F1 might not seem quite as much fun as it was in the turbo hybrid era.
Of course, Russell will have to get used to his new team and that is at least a season’s work, but he is going to be very keen to get his first win and so on. It might just be that that he does tread on Hamilton’s toes from time to time and that could cause friction in the team, and they have not had that since Rosberg retired.
Wind Tunnel Time Limits
With the new regulations limiting the amount of wind tunnel time that the more successful teams are allowed, Mercedes will have the least. Red Bull get 5% more, Ferrari 10%, all the way down to Haas who get 25% more wind tunnel time than Mercedes. It is hard to say exactly how much this will hinder the top teams, and help the slower ones, but it is a system designed to converge performance over time.
The Barcelona test saw good mileage achieved but the Mercedes was one of the cars which suffered from a lot of ‘porpoising’. This is where the downforce sucks the floor of the car to the ground to the point where the rear diffuser stalls and the rear of the car lifts up, pushing the nose down and you get the impression that the car is bouncing from its arse to its nose and back again. Most cars did to a greater or lesser extent, but Mercedes dialled most it out by the final day and their times improved. They used the softest tyre to set their best time.
New Look Car
The more important second test saw Mercedes reveal the ‘sidepodless’ car. It looks strange and many people thought this new design was going to be standard setter, the equivalent of Brawns’ double diffuser. The reality was that little had changed in terms of performance, if anything they had taken a step backwards. The car was still porpoising badly and understeering into corners.
A tricky looking car to drive and one that needs work to unlock its potential. This car is not starting the season as favourite in my book. Where it will be after three or four races is the question. Mercedes started 2021 in poor shape, but still won the Constructors Championship.
2022 Formula 1 Season: Not Ready To Win
The new car ‘is not ready to win races’ says Hamilton. The new design produces more downforce, which is good, but that downforce causes more porpoising and performance is lost, which is bad. The simple solution is to increase the ride height, but that reduces downforce which loses lap time. By the end of testing, they had taken to start sawing bits out of the floor and ironically raising the back of the car up in a mini high rake set up.
It is also rumoured that the Mercedes is overweight. Most cars are but the Merc is carrying too much timber and it needs to shed some weight. Clearly the team have work to do and it is just a matter of how long it will take before they find a way to unlock the cars performance.
They had problem in testing last year, but won the first race, so many expect something similar. Others are saying that the problems are more complex this year, and with the big regulation changes, that makes sense. The car is poor in the slow corners as the set up required to get rid of the porpoising reduces downforce and mechanical grip.
After the second test, Hamilton’s odds drifted from 2.50 to 2.75 and the teams Constructors odds from 1.62, to 2.10.
Lewis Hamilton – 2.80
George Russell – 10.00
2022 Formula 1 Season: Constructors Championship Odds – 2.10
Red Bull
Red Bull will be responsible for making their own power units from now on. A new organisation, Red Bull Powertrains (RBP) will take over the Honda power units design and manufacture. It is still a Honda operation, but with those Honda employees working on the project, becoming Red Bull Powertrain employees. The name on the engines will change, but little else will. The power units will still be made in Japan.
This will be the case until 2026, when the engine regulations are due to be overhauled. Servicing and maintenance will be undertaken in the UK once the facilities are completed by late spring. Many see this change as a serious threat to Red Bull but if it is basically a rebranding exercise, that need not be the case.
Red Bull’s car ‘launch’ was basically a tarted up show car to show their new livery, sponsors etc. We only got to see their new design on day one of the first test. Up till then, the Ferrari was said to be the most radicle design, but it was a case of Red Bull saying, hold my beer.
2022 Formula 1 Season: Sculpted Sidepods
The Red Bull side pods are unlike anything seen so far, featuring narrow air intakes and very heavily sculpted under cut, sweeping down to the rear of the car. They have switched to a pullrod front suspension but pullrod at the rear. There are rumours that this front suspension change is part of a clever trick system, designed to help slow speed cornering performance.
Verstappen said that his car was overweight, and the test was all about mileage and data gathering. Perez had a gearbox problem on day two but overall, they got they wanted done and will come back with an updated car for the second test in Bahrain.
The second test saw the Red Bull running reliably and quickly. On the final day they unveiled their updated bodywork and Perez immediately set the fastest time of the preseason test. Verstappen extended their lead with an even faster time late in the day. The team were visibly delighted, and they start the season with the fastest car, both on single lap pace, and long run pace.
Ground Effects
There is one story I picked up on during the testing and it was about Red Bull’s designer, Adrian Newey. When the was doing his engineering degree, his final year dissertation was about ground effects on sports cars. He was fascinated by it and admitted to putting in too many hours compared the rest of his studies, but it gave him a good grounding in the technology which is making its reappearance after 40 odd years.
He is old enough to have designed one of the original generations of ground effect cars. Porpoising was nothing new to Newey, which may explain why the Red Bull was the most stable, well balanced and fastest car.
Max Verstappen has signed a contract to stay at Red Bull until 2028 a big vote of confidence from both parties. His odds were cut from 3.75 to 2.88 after testing, but interestingly, his teammate, Sergio Perez odds were pushed out to 67.00 from 51.00. That means the bookies think there are six drivers who will finish ahead of him. I would be surprised if that were the case. Their Constructors Championship odds drifted from 4.00 to 4.50, which again, is strange.
Red Bull and Verstappen start as favourites in my book, but it is a long season, and they will not have all their own way.
Max Verstappen – 2.88
Sergio Perez – 67.00
2022 Formula 1 Season Constructors Championship Odds – 4.00
Ferrari – The word ‘radical’ has been used to describe Ferrari’s new design. The cars nose features a modular concept, never seen in F1. The part of the nose nearest the cockpit is the part which must pass the crash test. Forward of that is the second part of the nose which joins the front wing. The idea is that Ferrari will be able to modify the forward nose/wing design without having to go through another (expensive) crash test. Given that this will be a season of heavy in season development, this will save them time and money and more flexibility to tweak the design.
The new car looks very different, the paint work has a darker shade of red for a start and there is no Philip Morris branding on the car. The more important things are that the car is a more radical design. Their side pods are very sculptured, with concave tops, another feature never seen before. The overhead air intake is triangular, again, unlike any of the other cars launched. The front wing elements are a different shape to the others.
Ferrari Taking Different Approach
The Ferrari was the most ‘different’ looking car launched, until Mercedes revealed there zero sidepod car. Ferrari’s solutions are markedly different to others, and they were quick out of the box.
The new power unit is another crucial upgrade. We saw Ferrari upgrade their 2021 unit late in the season with a good step up in terms of performance. There has been a lot more work since then and the feeling is that they have a fully competitive power unit. Some say that it will be the best power unit on the grid.
2022 Formula 1 Season: No Number 1 Driver
Ferrari have confirmed that there is no number one driver in the team. This is different for Ferrari who have traditionally had one a number one driver and a support driver. They have two excellent pilots and I suspect that one of them would be looking elsewhere for a drive if they felt they were not getting a fair shot at the title.
Both Sainz and Leclerc are not stupid and know that Ferrari comes first, that they should be in the hunt for race wins, and this is a team they want to be in. They work well together, and both are mature enough to accept that they may have to accept a support role, but not until it is obvious that only one of them could win a title.
One thing we have not seen at Ferrari is another big management reshuffle. It had become a Ferrari tradition. Have problems, fire people, move people around, have more problems and repeat. It seems there is now a rare period of continuity. It has been a long time since that was the case, and it is this continuity which suggests Ferrari are on the right track, just as much as a radicle looking design.
Solid Shakedown Test
The first shakedown test at Barcelona was a good one. Sainz completed more laps than anyone and Leclerc also got a lot of running to gather plenty of valuable data. Both drivers were said to be comfortable in the car and it was quick, reliable, and handled well. Leclerc has gone as far as to target five race wins during the 2022 Formula 1 Season which suggests a good degree of confidence in his new car.
The second test didn’t see any big upgrade as the team wanted to fully exploit the design that was launched, so they sound like they are happy with it. They continued to be at or near the top of the time sheets, until Red Bull unleashed their latest design on the final day.
Ferrari completed more pre-season laps than anyone else, another positive. Their long run pace was good, closer to Red Bull than single lap pace and when they finally turn the power unit up to full power, we will find out their true potential.
Low Weight
In terms of weight, the Ferrari is said to be one of the cars closer to making the minimum of 795kg, which is another positive.
Ferrari are talking down their chances, and bigging up Red Bull and Mercedes. Realistic, or just lowering the usual massive expectations in Italy? Certainly, all the other teams tipped up Ferrari, until Red Bull upped the ante on the final day. At least the second fastest car, very reliable and the team look more composed than they have done for a long time.
Their odds have been cut after the final test. They are now 4.00 to win the constructors championship, in from 6.50. Leclerc is in to 8.00 from 12.00 and Sainz 15.00 from 21.00
Charles Leclerc – 9.00
Carlos Sainz – 15.00
2022 Formula 1 Season Constructors Championship Odds – 4.00
McLaren
McLaren have gone through big changes in ownership, and management, driver changes and three different power unit suppliers in recent years. They are in a good position going into the new era. They returned to the winner’s circle with Ricciardo at Monza last year and there were four podiums for Lando Norris and a pole position.
Now they enter the new era with almost everything in place in terms of people, management and finances. If they get their design right, then McLaren may well be able to join the party at the front more often and may even be in the title hunt. Last year’s car was not a great all-rounder and they will need to be competitive across all sorts of tracks, not just the fast ones.
Their driver line up is strong. With a season with the team under his belt, they should be able to get more out of Daniel Ricciardo and in Lando Norris, they have one of the best young talents on the grid. He has now committed himself to the team until 2025.
Final Piece Of The Jigsaw
The final part of the jigsaw is getting their new wind tunnel online. They have been using the rather outdated Toyota facility in Germany in recent years and they need something more state of the art to make the next step up. McLaren are ambitious to join in the fight for championships but acknowledge that they have some way still to go. They are not in the same league when it comes to the wind tunnels and feel that they are unlikely to championship contenders until they have a more modern set up at their UK base.
The Barcelona test saw McLaren fast straight out of the box. The team downplayed the pace, but the car was said to be particularly good in medium speed corners and very reliable. It was a positive start and McLaren’s upward trajectory looks to remain on course. One technical analysis of the car, using photographs of the vortices produced when there was a brief period of wet weather testing, showed particularly strong vortices running along the floor of the McLaren, creating a strong seal.
Least Porpoising Problems
The McLaren was said to be the car with the least problem with porpoising at the first test and they do seem to have a good base from which to develop rather than spending time fixing problems.
It was strange then to see McLaren having a bad Bahrain test. The car spent a lot of time in the garage, and they struggled to run the car for more than 10 laps, before the front brakes overheated. They tried some fixes, but nothing really worked, and this problem needs a redesign with just 1 week before the first race weekend. McLaren are not suffering with the porpoising problems affecting most teams and if they can solve the front brake problem, and they are confident that they can, we will find out if they can join the top teams at the front.
Covid
Daniel Ricciardo had to miss all three days of testing due to being ill with covid. That meant more miles for Norris, but not as many as the team had planned. Norris only got 200 laps completed over the three days and the team did not get to run through all their programs.
McLaren have a good car, but we shall just have to wait and see if they can fix the front brake problems in quick time. Norris’ odds were still cut in half after testing, 21.00 from 41.00, and their constructors odds into 18.00 from 34.00. Any value would seem to have gone.
Lando Norris – 26.00
Daniel Ricciardo – 67.00
2022 Formula 1 Season Constructors Championship Odds – 18.00
Alpine
More managerial changes. The team’s unusual management structure last year looked odd, and the axe has swung over the winter. Out goes a disgruntled Alain Prost as a consultant, and Marcin Budkowski, the executive director. In comes Otmar Szafnauer, the former Force India/Racing Point/Aston Martin boss. He knows how to get good results with a limited budget and the coast cap era should be right up his street. Szafnauer has brought sponsor BWT with him. Good news for Alpine, bad news for Aston Martin.
The team is headed by Laurent Rossi, a Harvard MBA with an engineering background. 2021 was a learning year for him, getting to know how a formula 1 team works. It is his job to make more changes to the team and move them up the pecking order. He is well qualified to do so but the team could do with a bit more continuity in terms of management.
Re-Organised
The technical department has been reorganised. Former McLaren and Ferrari designer, Pat Fry has been promoted to chief technical officer, responsibility for long term development strategy. An ex- Mercedes man is now the technical director. His expertise is in power unit engineering. The team also announced the signing of Bruno Famin to lead their power unit operations. He was formerly at the FIA and before that was head of Peugeots sporting division.
The cost cap should be beneficial for the midfield teams like Alpine. They will no longer be outspent by the big three. Alonso believes the team now have all the resources needed to compete with the big boys and with a man like Szafnauer at the helm, they should be able to get the most from those resources.
Power Unit Problems?
There is a story doing the rounds that Alpine are having problems with their power unit. The new E10 fuel is causing both a loss of power but also affecting reliability. It is an all new power unit that has been two years in the making. It is smaller and lighter which brings benefits in terms of allowing more room for the aerodynamicists to play with.
Last year’s power unit was said to be 30bhp down on the Honda and Mercedes units and this new design is aimed at closing that gap. The new fuel will reduce power for all manufacturers, but this new power unit is central to Alpines hopes of moving closer to the top. If it turns out that reliability has worsened and power output is not all that was hoped for, it could get messy for Alpine.
The Mercedes Route
Alpine have gone down the Mercedes style split turbo design and CEO Rossi has told the engineers to push for performance rather than concentrate on reliability. It is the old F1 adage that it is easier to make a fast car reliable, than making a reliable car fast. The problem is that his competitors already have fast and reliable power units. If Renault have built a very powerful unit that breaks down a lot, they are not going to make any progress. In this day and age, you need both performance and reliability. That standard is already set.
The constant managerial changes may be necessary for Alpine to improve, but all these people take time to bed in, so it maybe a short-term negative for a long-term gain, if they have found the right people.
The team have set a target of at least finishing no worse than fifth, the same as last year, which is not hugely ambitious.
Not Plain Sailing
It was not plain sailing at the first test. They didn’t used the DRS for reliability reasons and while the first two days went pretty much to plan, they suffered a power unit blow up on the final day which ended their running early and Alpine completed the third lowest number of laps. The vibes were not good.
The second test saw the car sporting an all pink paint job, but it was still porpoising quite badly. The final two days saw the car running quite well if still bouncing up the straight too much. The team say they know how to fix it but as it stands, they don’t seem to have a great car, it was better by day three, but it is not in the top division and there remain concerns as to reliability when the power unit modes are turned up.
Alpine’s constructors’ championship odds have drifted out to 101.00 from 41.00 and their drivers odds also went for a walk in the wrong direction.
Fernando Alonso – 101.00
Esteban Ocon – 151.00
2022 Formula 1 Season Constructors Championship Odds – 101.00
Alpha Tauri
The team had a typical Alpha Tauri first test, reliable, well balanced but never stealing the limelight. Pierre Gasly was the only driver to crash which cost his teammate valuable in car time at the first test. Gasly was fulsome in his praise for the car, saying that that it was good from the word go. Sometimes you can tell more about a car by how happy the drivers are, in which case, this is a good car as Gasly was beaming.
Tsunoda said that he will need to make some changes to his driving style to adopt to the new car which is less positive.
By the end of the second test Alpha Tauri had covered the third highest number of laps but they said that they were still trying to understand the car. They had got to grips with the porpoising problems which is a positive but overall, nobody was saying that the car was going to cause any great surprises, but they have a decent car that will score points, much the same as they have always done.
Pierre Gasly – 251.00
Yuki Tsunoda – 501.00
2022 Formula 1 Season Constructors Championship Odds – 751.00
Aston Martin
More management changes as Aston Martin aspires to join the big boys. Under its various guises over the years, this team has always delivered an excellent return on investment. In terms of points won by dollars spent, they had no peer. The team are having growing pains as they try to move from plucky underdog to championship contenders.
Under the owner ship of Lawrence Stroll consortium, Aston have been investing in their infrastructure before the cost cap kicked in. The new owners have decided that long time team boss Otmar Szafnauer is not up to the job of running a ‘top’ team, and former head of BMW’s global motorsport operation Mike Krack has been brought in to replace him.
Can Krack Deliver?
Krack spent 10 years in Formula 1 with Sauber and more recently headed up BMW’s Formula E operation. He now has the responsibility of delivering on Lawrence Stroll’s ambitions. Stroll is a man who is used to getting want he wants, and it is rumoured that his ruthlessness is causing some friction. His rule by fear approach is said to be making management executives are afraid to speak out and point out problems for fear of getting sacked.
Sebastian Vettel’s contract is up at the end of the year. If Aston Martin do not make significant progress, would he re-sign, look elsewhere, or just walk away?
New Car From Scratch
In the past this team has run Mercedes clone cars but with the new regulation changes, they are designing their own car from scratch, they don’t have anything to copy. It is a big step from being a B team to standing on your two hind legs and going your own way. Aston Martin have been recruiting from other teams in the build up to this new era.
Notable additions to the aero department are former Red Bull head of aero dynamics, Ron Fellows, and he was joined by Andrew Alessi, also from Red Bull. Luca Furbatto was recruited as Head of Engineering from Alfa Romeo. Aston have retained the services of Andy Green who has been promoted to Chief Technical Officer, but there have been rumours that he might be joining his old boss Otmar Szafnauer at Alpine.
Growing Pains
Growing pains seem inevitable. Bedding in lots of fairly senior people, poached from Red Bull, Mercedes and Alfa Romeo, will take time. Some of the new appointments are on ‘gardening leave’ until they are allowed to start work with the team later in the season. The team have a 5 year plan blah, blah, blah, don’t they all? Aston Marin are also building a new factory and retooling it, all under the cost cap, although some things were started before the cost cap kicked in last year.
Traditionally the team appointed from within as they didn’t have the budget to attract the big names to Force India/Racing Point. Bringing in outsiders with different ways of doing things should prove fruitful but in the short run it will be disruptive.
The Barcelona test saw the car looking pretty, but also a bit skittish in slow speed corners, it was slow through the third sector which is never a good sign. They suffered badly with porpoising. There was work to do.
At the second test was very low key for Aston Martin. They were not getting up near the top of the time sheets, but they got plenty of miles under their belt and bedded in some new parts. Their long run pace did offer some encouragement but as it stands, they remain a midfield team.
Sebastian Vettel – 251.00
Lance Stroll – 301.00
2022 Formula 1 Season Constructors Championship Odds – 151.00
Williams
The management reshuffle continues. Engineering director Adam Carter has left. New team principle, Jost Capito has drafted in a number of former colleagues from his time at VW Motorsport.
The driver line up has changed with Alex Albon, ex-Red Bull driver, replacing George Russell. Albon struggled at Red Bull, but he is not alone in that. It is hard to look good when paired with a driver of Verstappen’s talents. Albon is not a rookie and is worthy of the seat, but he will still need to settle into the team and the change is a negative one, in the short term at least.
Williams may have only scored 23 points last year and they were flattered by the farce that was the Belgian GP, but it meant they finished eighth and they have started going in the right direction. The team was in terminal decline and a family run business was never going to work in the modern era. Under new ownership and management, Williams are once again, looking like a professional racing team.
More Resources
Resources have been put into the team, better people attracted to it and the fact that Williams will be working more closely with Mercedes is another positive. They will be using not just a Mercedes power unit, but the whole drive train. This frees up resources to be invested in other parts of the car.
The first shakedown test went OK, they got a decent mileage and got the data they needed. The second test was marred by a fire which started in the rear wheels and caused enough damage for the team to effectively miss a whole day’s track time. This was said to be a case of human error rather than a car problem, but it took any shine of their pre-season work. The car seems to be OK, no world beater and likely to be at the rear of the midfield.
Alex Albon – 501.00
Nicolas Latifi – 1001.00
2022 Formula 1 Season Constructors Championship Odds – 501.00
Alfa Romero
Alfa Romero have an all-new driver line up. The experienced Valtteri Bottas joins after his five years as the Mercedes number 2. He will be the defacto team leader and will be joined by the exciting Chinese driver, Guanyu Zhou.
If you have been following Formula 2 for the last three years, it will have been hard to miss Zhou. He has come through the Ferrari driver academy, the Alpine Academy and was a Renault test driver but ended up here, at Alfa Romeo. Being Chinese does open doors for Zhou but whilst his best result in F2 was to finish third in last year’s Championship, he has won five races. He likes to take his chances and it will be interesting how he gets on in wheel-to-wheel racing in F1.
Minor Glitches
Alfa Romero were the last to launch and ran their car in a camouflage livery at the first test. They only managed 9 laps in the morning session after a series of ‘minor’ glitches. Minor they may have been, but it kept the car in the garage for a long time and at a test that was all about data gathering, they were missing out. Bottas only got 54 laps completed and wasn’t happy. The reality of driving for a lower midfield team was a bit of a shock after five years at Mercedes. Zhou managed over 100 laps and looked in decent shape by day three.
The car is a quite radical design, with a short wheelbase, push rod suspension, a well developed front wing and Ferrari style sidepod. They run a Ferrari power unit, so that makes sense. It is a good looking car but it had a lot of problems with porpoising which resulted in damage to the car. Ambitious in design, but not a great first test.
Light Car
Alfa Romero, along with McLaren, were the only two teams to be able to run the 2022 car at the 795kg weight limit. The others were heavier and there is a move to increase the minimum weight limit to 800kg. The two teams are very keen to keep the minimum weight at 795kg as it seems that will give them a performance advantage if the others cannot shed the extra 5kg. However, if the majority of teams want to up the limit, only an FIA veto can stop it.
Reliability Issues
The second test saw more reliability issues and by the end of it, Bottas said he was beginning to like the car, but doubted if the car would last a race distance. When it was running, it was quite quick. Bottas set the sixth best time but on the medium tyre, which is encouraging, but how much fuel did they have in?
Alfa Romeo run the Ferrari power unit, but this season have designed and built their own gearbox. This seems a bit odd. The trend for the smaller teams has been to try and take as many parts as possible from their senior partners but Alfa have reversed this. The fact that they broke at least one of the new gear boxes in Bahrain is a worry.
The team seemed to have got a grip on the porpoising problems which had affected them badly in Barcelona. Overall, the car is reasonable but behind schedule due to reliability problems and best watched at this stage.
Valtteri Bottas – 501.00
Guanya Zhou – 1001.00
2022 Formula 1 Season Constructors Championship Odds – 751.00
Haas
A big year ahead for Haas. The team wrote off 2021, basically running the 2020 car and putting their modest resources into this 2022 car under the new regulations. Their new car passed its crash test in December and did so with no problems. The new regs require improvements to front and side impact protection and there had been reports that a few teams were struggling to pass the new tests. They were the first team to show photos of their new car, but it was more of a case of showing the new paint job. They had their shake down run at Barcelona before the start of the first test, so they did seem to have everything under control.
Closer To ferrari
Haas have been getting closer to Ferrari and now have a design office at Ferrari’s factory in Maranello. It is staffed by Haas employees, but they are Ferrari team members loaned out to Haas. Their technical director is an ex-Ferrari man and he and the team are using as much Ferrari kit as possible. If Ferrari have come up with a good car and power unit, Haas will benefit.
Haas is still the minnow on the grid. Reaching the cost cap is an ambition rather than a budget cut and while they are not going to be joining the big boys, the new budget cap will bring other teams closer to them, in terms of spending. That should mean they will be closer on track and scoring some points will be the target.
The closer tie up with Ferrari has to be a huge plus and this is the season where we will learn more about their two drivers. Mick Schumacher is the marketing departments dream. If he turns out to be the real deal, he is box office gold. Last year allowed him to get used to F1 life and settle into the team, but the car was so poor, we only learned that he was a lot better than his Russian teammate
Modest Ambitions
The team’s ambitions are realistically modest, but in the past they have punched above their weight, scored a 6th place on their 2016 debut and finished 5th in the 2018 constructors championship. They have showed that small budget operators can be relatively competitive and in the new cost cap era, Haas is something of a role model for anyone thinking of entering Formula 1.
Haas are likely to have the biggest turn around in form of all the teams, but just like the UK’s world beating economic growth rate, that is only because they fell so far back. Lower midfield respectability is achievable. It will be interesting to see how the market prices the two Haas drivers in the early races. In the past they have often started the season brightly but failed to develop much as the season went on, thanks to a lack of resources. Early points? Why not?
Russian Links
A final thought on Haas must be about its Russian links. They were heavily funded by Russian backers, had a Russian driver and the car was basically a Russian flag. As things got hotter in Ukraine, there were repercussions for Haas’s Russian links. Nakita Mazepin has been shown the door, sponsorship with his father’s company terminated and the Russian colours removed from the car and team wear etc.
With not more than a matter of days before the start of the season, Haas were left a driver short and with no title sponsor. Losing Mazepin is not a big deal, he was just a pay driver, but losing the sponsorship money will be a serious problem. The team wanted a more experienced driver to replace Mazepin and in the end have re-signed Kevin Magnussen. It is a smart move as he knows the team and can settle in very quickly. The new car will take some time for him to get used to, but his signing is a positive.
More Chaos
Just to add more chaos to the team, their departure from the UK to Bahrain for the final test was delayed due to their cargo plane braking down. In the end they only lost about half a day and the FIA allowed then some extra track time after the official end of the day.
They used the time to take out the fuel and but Magnussen on top of the time sheets on day two. Well, when you have no title sponsor, these things happen. Mick Schumacher was second fastest on the final day, but nobody is expecting them to be up there come this weekend.
Keep An Eye On Haas
However, Haas are worth keeping an eye on. They have improved their driver line up. They have a Ferrari power unit, which could be the best on the grid. Haas didn’t waste any resources on last year’s car and used what budget they had on this year’s model. The sliding scale for wind tunnel time means that the team finishing last in the 2021 constructor’s championship are allowed more wind tunnel time, by some margin.
That means Haas can spend more time developing parts in the wind tunnel than anyone else. In a season were in season development is going to be huge, that is no bad thing. The drivers were said to be very happy with the car and their long run pace on the medium tyres was enough to place them in the midfield. Reliability was not rock solid in Bahrain but overall, things are looking up.
Mick Schumacher – 751.00
Kevin Magnussen – 301.00
2022 Formula 1 Season Constructors Championship Odds – 501.00
2022 Formula 1 Season Summary
It cannot be stressed enough that 2022 is effectively a year zero for Formula1. Such are the depth of regulation changes, we cannot take much of what has gone before as a guide for how things will pan out this season. One technical director summed it up by saying that the only thing carried over for last year’s car was the steering wheel.
This is not to say that a team like Mercedes is suddenly going to be rubbish, but there is a chance. It is likely that some team, or teams, has found a significantly better way to generate more downforce from the floor, and conversely, some may have done a bad job. There is significant scope for the traditional pecking order to be mixed up.
Development
The season will see more development than we have seen for some time, but this must be done within the constraints of the budget cap. In the past, if, for example, Ferrari came out with a bad concept, a dog of a car, they could just throw money at a redesign and be reasonably competitive after a few months.
This year, any redesign will have to be done with limited resources. Any fix could take longer and have knock on effects on other parts of the team. Next year’s car design may have to be pushed back, spare part production reduced, even salaries constrained. Getting it right from the start has never been more important.
Teams are not wanting to show their hand until the first race. The cars seen in testing are going to be revised between testing and the first race, but we have an indication of who is hot and who is not.
Head Start
That said, the bigger, richer teams, will have got a head start. These new regulations were supposed to come into effect last season, but they were delayed due to the pandemic. Last year saw the start of the cost cap, but pre-2021, the teams knew what was coming and those teams with the cash handy would have made as much capital spending as they could afford.
Upgrading machinery, wind tunnels, IT systems and any big-ticket items that needed to be brought up to date. The smaller, cash poor teams will not have been able to spend as much to prepare for the cost cap era. Haas for example, decided that writing off 2021 in terms of car development, was the only sensible option. Putting their limited resources into their 2022 Formula 1 Season car.
Under The Spend Limit
The smallest teams are still likely to be operating under the $140 million limit and while the big team’s ability to outspend them is now limited, it is still there. The big teams will have tooled up in advance while the smaller teams would not have been able to do as much. The big teams will still have a financial advantage, but it will be smaller than before. In the medium to long term, the performance gap between the haves and the have yachts, will shrink, but it is not going to be something that happens overnight.
Betting ante post for this season is more of a shot in the dark than ever before. Testing threw up hints, but most teams will be sending revised cars out for the first race and the amount of development in the first few races will be significant. The formbook has been ripped up and will not be rewritten for some time yet.
Normally, the fastest car at race 1 would be a strong favourite to win the championship, but this year, especially with a planned 23 race calendar, there will be time for teams that were off the pace, to regroup and develop new ideas and take the fight to the early leaders. Those that get off to a good start will still hold an advantage, but just not to the same degree as before.
2022 Formula 1 Season: The New Order
This is the part of the season when the pundits must make an educated guess as to who is hot and who is not.
Red Bull are universally regarded as the team to beat at the first race. The fact that the first race is on the same track as the final test a week ago can only help. We know how well they go here and there should be no big surprises. They are a team with championship winning form, a stable personnel/management set up and two good drivers.
Many do not rate Perez that highly and with these new generation Pirelli tyres being much more durable, his tyre management skills will not be as valuable as in past seasons, but that could also be said about Lewis Hamilton.
Ferrari Look Good
Ferrari are talking themselves down, but they look the closest to Red Bull. Like Red Bull, Ferrari have a designer who was around in the first-generation ground effect cars. The fact that both teams seem to have the best handling, least porpoising cars may have something to do with this. The management set up is unusually stable for Ferrari, they have a very strong driver line up and the car performed well in testing. Everything looks in place for a fully competitive season. Races wins are expected, and we have to consider them in both championships.
Mercedes faces a tougher year. Their car has not been born as the fastest and they will start on the back foot. That was the case last year and they won the first race and the constructors championship. They are bedding in a new driver, and they are the most limited team on wind tunnel time which may hurt in-season development. However, they have a lot of talent in the team and will improve and do so quickly. They are very much in the mix but at least it does not look like they have designed a car that is set to dominate for another eight years.
Tricky
Outside of the top three, things get tricky. McLaren looked like they may be joining the big three at the top after the first test, but their brake cooling problems in the second test put a big dent in their prospects. If they find a quick fix then they may yet be in the hunt for race wins, but their stock fell after that Bahrain test.
If McLaren are on the cusp of breaking out of the midfield, it is harder to place the rest. We could end up with Formula A in the midfield. Aston Martin, Alpine, Alpha Tauri and Alfa Romeo. In what order is anyone’s guess. Alfa Romeo may be the weakest as their reliability has been poor and they are bedding in two new drivers, one of whom is a rookie.
That leaves Williams and Haas. Williams is going through managerial upheavals and have lost George Russell, who was arguably their biggest asset in 2021. Alex Albon is a decent replacement, but is he as quick as Russell? Unlikely. Their car looks decent, a bit Mercedes like, and they resemble a proper racing team again, but they may find it difficult to replicate last year’s eighth place in the constructor’s table.
Haas Gamble
Haas have gambled on this being the year to play catch up and re-join the midfield, at least occasionally. 2021 was written off and everything thrown at this car. It has been born well and it should allow their drivers to pick up some points, especially in the early races when reliability or lack of, can present opportunities for the lesser lights. The only way is up, and they are heading in the right direction.
2022 Formula 1 Season Ante Post Selections
Drivers’ Championship
Max Verstappen broke Mercedes stranglehold on the drivers championship last year, and despite the kerfuffle in the final race, deserved to take the title. Now into his eighth season, he now has the experience to go with his speed. He now knows he can win the championship and not just races. He is the main man at Red Bull and has the whole team working for him, much like Hamilton at Mercedes.
Verstappen looks to be starting the season with the quickest car and a Verstappen/quickest car combination will be tough to stop. The pressure to win that first title will be gone and he will be looking to do what the greats do, win back-to-back titles. Rosberg didn’t win back-to-back as he retired at the top, Jenson Button didn’t as he switched team after winning with Brawn. Hamilton failed to defend his title in 2009 after the regulations changed and Brawn came up with the famous double diffuser. Hamilton’s McLaren just wasn’t competitive that year. Kimi Raikkonen failed to defend is title in 2008 but he was never one of the big beasts.
Twelve of the last twenty three drivers championships have gone to the defending champion and with Verstappen remaining in the same team, he looks well placed to add to the trend.
2022 Formula 1 Season Tip: 2 points Max Verstappen to win the Drivers’ Championship @ 3.00 with Pokerstars
Constructors’ Championship
Mercedes have won the last eight constructor’s championships, every single one since the last big regulation change in 2014. Red Bull won the four years before that. Brawn is the only team that failed to defend a constructor’s championship since 1998, but they only existed for a single season.
Clearly the big regulation changes make the chance of a team other than Mercedes winning the title that bit bigger. Mercedes will be starting on the back foot, not way out of the picture, but ‘not ready to win races’. This gives Red Bull and Ferrari a chance to establish a valuable early lead. With a planned 23 races in 2022, Mercedes will have time to get fully competitive and make a late charge, but any team would happier being competitive from the start.
New Driver Lineup
Mercedes have changed their driver line up for the first time since 2017. They still won that championship by a margin of 146 points, but any lack of continuity is usually a negative, especially at the very top level. It is this lack of continuity which may have cost Red Bull a constructor’s title in recent years.
They brought in Sergio Perez to strengthen the driver line-up in 2021 but he didn’t settle that well and struggled with the car, especially in qualifying. With Perez retained, this will be Red Bulls first year with a stable driver line up since 2018. The question must be, is Perez good enough to help Red Bull win the title?
He may have to improve his qualifying or hope that the new regulations which make it easier to follow and pass the car in front, allows him to convert third row starts into podium finishes. The more durable Pirelli tyres may have blunted his major strength and it remains hard to say just how well Perez can do but having a year at Red Bull under his belt can only help.
Ferrari Can Join Party
This season it looks like Ferrari can join the party. They have not won a constructor’s title since 2008 and while they seem to have a good car this year, it is a while since they were fighting for championships. They have been guilty of poor decision making and they are under more pressure than any other team on the grid. We shall see if their improved continuity at driver and managerial level helps their decision making, but they are not the well-oiled winning machines that Mercedes and Red Bull have become.
In Leclerc and Sainz, Ferrari look to have the best driver line up. Mercedes might do when Russell settles in, but that may not be until next year. Perez does not strike me as good a driver as either of the Ferrari drivers, and ultimately, Russell.
Leap of Faith
Backing Ferrari is a leap of faith in the team getting it right, but if the drivers get a competitive car, and it looks like they have, their have the drivers to deliver the results. Mercedes and Red Bull might just be a bit too orientated towards their star drivers. Ferrari may have a problem managing two well matched drivers without having a contracted number two driver, but they both seem like good team players.
There are those that say that Ferrari run their cars light in testing and when push comes to shove at the weekend, they will suddenly be found out, but that is just speculation, and it is just as valid to say that they haven’t shown what their much-vaunted power unit can do.
2022 Formula 1 Season Tip: 2 points Ferrari to win the Constructor’s Championship @ 4.00 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Unibet
2022 Formula 1 Season: Side Markets
It seems the days of having a good range of side markets in the ante post markets has gone. Instead, we get ‘request-a-bet’ specials which tend to be the blindingly obvious, or ridiculous multiples.
William Hill has a market ‘without the big four’, i.e., without the Red Bull and Mercedes drivers. The two Ferrari drivers top that market. Carlos Sainz won this market last year, despite it being his first season at Ferrari. With a year under his belt, he should be better for it.
He is a remarkably consistent driver and the only one to finish every race in 2021. Leclerc may have better one lap pace but with these new regulations, will qualifying be quite as important as we have become accustomed to? Lando Norris is the only other realistic contender in my book, and it looks like Ferrari have the stronger car, to start with at least.
