2022 French GP Preview

The Austrian GP was a thriller and James Punt landed a couple of nice winners. Can he do even better this weekend? Check out his 2022 French GP preview and tips below.

2022 French GP

France is the spiritual home of Grand Prix racing, but it is not blessed with a great track. The circuit Paul Ricard has been around since 1970 but only returned to the calendar in 2018. With no race in 2020, we only have three races over this layout. The track was built to be a good test of a car’s performance and it is in essence, a test track.

As a test track it ticks all the boxes. It features straights, a mix of fast, medium and slow corners, left handers, right handers, chicanes, the works. It is a bit dull and hard on the eyes, but it does allow for overtaking. The track is much more of a front limited track and that should play to Red Bull’s car, unlike Austria, which was more rear limited and, in the end, it was that which was taking the life out of the Red Bull’s tyres more than Ferrari. It was very close at the finish as Leclerc was having problems with his throttle pedal and Verstappen closed right up in the dying laps.

Smooth Surface

The circuit is, like Silverstone, a very smooth surface and that helped Mercedes’ competitiveness in Britain, so they may be in the frame for another podium and Red Bull have said they expect a three team race this weekend. Of the three races here, Mercedes/Hamilton have won two, both from pole and Hamilton was second to Verstappen last year.

The pole position driver has won all three races here and the retirement rate is very low, with just four across the three years. Three of them came in 2018 and two resulted from a first lap collision. That means we have had just two retirements in the last 158 laps of racing here. Clearly it is a track which is easy on the cars. Being a test track it is designed not to place the walls near the track. You don’t want to spend valuable test time fixing crashed cars and there is a lot of room to bail out.

Reliability Issues

The not classified rates in 2022 have been quite high by modern standards. 30 in 11 races and exactly 3 in 5 of them. Mechanical reliability has not been what it has been in recent years but there have been a fair few collisions as well. There is more room to keep out of trouble here and the drivers should be getting told not to crash the cars. The cost cap is biting at a lot of teams and fixing accident damage is an unwelcome drain on resources. This bet would have lost in seven of this year’s races, but I’ll take the chance that this track can keep its record of low attrition.

2022 French GP Tips: 1 point Under 17.5 classified finishers @ 2.50 with Ladbrokes

Ferrari have now won two races in a row, so is the constructors championship becoming a two-horse race again? Not really. Red Bull are still 56 points ahead and they were unlucky in Britain and very close in Austria. We are exactly at the halfway point of the season, with eleven races gone and eleven more to come, so there is time to close the gap, but there is no evidence to say that Ferrari are suddenly having the better car.

They have improved on their weakness on the straights, which will make them more competitive, but reliability is still a problem. Carlos Sainz suffered a catastrophic power unit failure in Austria which is not a good sign.

Some people are comparing this track with Silverstone, due to the smooth surface and the fast, sweeping corners, but this track does have more slow stuff. Using Silverstone as a guide is further diminished by the fact that qualifying was wet.

Red Bull had been very fast in FP3 but the rain mixed things up in qualifying. The race wasn’t a great guide either with the chaos at the start and restart, and Verstappen’s car damage clouding the picture. Mercedes were much happier but given a dry weekend and a clean start, it looked like Red Bull were on for a 1-2, or double podium.

Driver Records

With just three races here, it is hard to build up much of a picture but with this being a test track, the best cars do better, and it is not a track to expect any great surprises. The drivers with the best records are Hamilton and Verstappen. Bottas and Perez have one podium each, as does Charles Leclerc. Vettel has three top 10’s, Norris two top 10’s from two races. Gasly collided with fellow Frenchman Ocon in 2018, but he has picked up points for the last two races here.

2022 French GP: Recent Form

Ferrari are on a bit of a roll, but it is hard to say who has the best car right now. Ferrari have closed the top speed deficit to Red Bull which was giving Red Bull a very useful advantage on tracks with longer straights. Red Bull continue to be a bit overweight. Some development parts had to be beefed up for reliability and the cars diet has had to be put on hold. This tends to show up more in qualifying when there is little fuel in the two cars, which may help explain Ferrari’s better one lap pace.

Big Race For Alpine

This is a big race for the in-form Alpine team. They are tied on 81 points with McLaren, they have had a car finish in the top 6 for the last three races and a double points finish in three of the last four. Esteban Ocon is the leading French driver, in a French team, but he is yet to score a point on home soil. It will be interesting to see where they stack up with Mercedes expected to be stronger this weekend.

Alonso is on a run of six consecutive points finishes, Ocon has also finished in the points in four of those last six. The team are eyeing catching Mercedes and there are more upgrades to come, but whether there will be any this weekend, we have to wait and see. Reliability has been a weakness in the car and while the team have identified the causes, they are still working on permanent fixes.

Hamilton Gaining Momentum

Mercedes have had a car in third place for the last four races, and three of those saw them finish 3rd and 4th. They have been massively helped by the relatively high attrition in the top two teams. On a track where attrition has been so low, any podium this weekend may have to be earned and not inherited. Hamilton has had three podiums in a row and the momentum within the team is swinging back his way. He is now just 19 points behind Russell in the championship.

Mercedes will be introducing more upgrades this weekend, including a new nose, but they won’t reveal all until Friday. The team are now working on improving performance, rather than firefighting the porpoising problems. With the track likely to suit, this will be their best chance to show where their upgraded car is, compared to the top two teams. They will also be giving a FP1 run out for Nick De Vires

McLaren No Longer Best of Rest

McLaren have lost the mantle of ‘best of the rest.’ Their upward trajectory of the last few seasons has all but halted. Ricciardo is getting a large part of the blame, and he is struggling compared to Norris. However, the team are simply confused about the cars pace. They don’t know why it is good on some tracks, but not on others. They are saying that the car is too draggy for the faster circuits and that it is very sensitive to high track temperatures.

The track is likely to be very hot this weekend and while the straights here are not massive, there are three. These are not things that can be cured with a different set up, and only design changes will address them. That means the fixes may not be seen until 2023 as the cost cap, and wind tunnel regulations, limit what they can do over the rest of this season.

Schumacher On The Up

Further down the grid we have Mick Schumacher who has now scored back to back points finishes and was as high as sixth in Austria. Haas have had a double points finishes in the last two races. They also had both cars into Q3 in Canada, so they are on a bit of a roll. They have now moved up to 7th place in the constructors table, overtaking Alpha Tauri who are going backwards.

Alpha Tauri have only scored eleven points across the last seven races and are likely to be caught by Aston Martin soon. Pierre Gasly has described the Alpha Tauri as the slowest car on the grid. That may be overplaying it, but they are struggling and will be bring a significant upgrade this weekend, including a new floor and new body parts. This is an attempt to improve grip in high-speed corners which is particularly poor on high fuel and used tyres. The car is also understeering too much for Gasly’s liking, so it will be interesting to see how they perform this weekend.

Aston Martin Looking For Points

Aston Martin came up dry in Austria, ending a run of six points finishes from seven races. They had a double points finish here last year and will be looking at getting more points this weekend. Their weakness lies in the faster corners, of which there are some here. Aston Martin struggled in the last two races with their faster corners, but this track may be a little better, but not ideal. Test tracks tend to find out problem cars and the Aston Martin is one of them.

Alfa Romeo have been pointless in three of the last four races and they are losing ground to Alpine and McLaren. They will be getting a bit worried by Haas picking up points. Alfa Romero will be using a new Ferrari clutch from this weekend. Their starts have not be good due to vibrations on the start line and the new clutch is designed to cure this.

Williams Promise?

Williams remains in last place, but the upgrade put on Albon’s car at Silverstone is showing some promise. It is harder to drive according to Albon, but it does have more downforce. They didn’t have enough useful running at Silverstone thanks to the weather and then Albon’s first lap wipe out.

The sprint race format in Austria meant one hours less free practice and they still are gathering data on the ‘new car,’ but it looks promising. One to keep an eye on in Friday’s practice sessions. Nicolas Latifi will finally have the new upgrade this weekend as well. This means double the data gathered which should speed up the process of understanding the new car.

2022 French GP: The Weather Forecast

The weather in France has been very hot lately and this weekend sees temperatures forecast to be 29 degrees, hot dry and sunny for all three days. The chances of rain are less than 1%.

The high temperatures and sunny skies are going to make the track surface very hot. This may impact on tyre wear. Last year saw Verstappen running a two stop strategy to Mercedes’ one and both the Mercs lost positions to the Red Bulls in the dying laps as their tyres ran out of life. The higher temperatures may mean we get a two stopper for all.

The power unit penalty season is in full swing and backing ante post is still carrying that additional risk.

Ante Post Selections

I am keen to avoid too many ante post bets at this time of year due to the possibility of power unit penalties. We usually do not find out until Saturday, and it is less risky to wait until Sunday, especially for the outright win market. The earlier bet on the number of classified finishers is not penalty dependant.

Another more speculative bet is in FP1. With Mercedes bringing another upgrade, they will want to get as much data as possible. The upgrades are performance driven so they may well want to give it a bit of welly to see if it works before committing to run it for the rest of the weekend. Hamilton will be sitting out FP1 and my guess is that Russell will run the upgrade on his car.

Test driver Nick De Vires in the other car may be used to run the existing set up to compare back-to-back runs. When they brought in upgrades in Spain and Britain, they showed good pace in FP2, second fastest in both. It was too wet in FP1 at Silverstone. I may be a session too early, but it is worth a small each way bet on Russell to set the fastest time in FP1.

2022 French GP Tip: 0.5 point e/w George Russell to set the fastest time in FP1 @ 13.00 with Hills

We will have updates for both qualifying and the race, when we will have a clearer picture of any penalties which may be incoming.

-JamesPunt