2022 French GP Raceday Update and Tips – JP
2022 French GP Raceday Update
Unfortunately, qualifying didn’t quite go as James Punt hoped. Charles Leclerc edged out Max for pole and we were out of luck with our bet on Williams too. Hopefully our luck changes today, check out James’ 2022 French GP Raceday Update below.
2022 French GP Raceday Preview
The see-saw between Ferrari and Red Bull tipped in Ferrari’s favour in qualifying. The three practice sessions saw Leclerc, Verstappen and Sainz all occupying 1st, 2nd and 3rd places in different sessions. All very confusing, but we know who the fastest three are. Sainz has to start in 19th place after his penalties for taking a new power unit.
The Spaniard was arguably the fastest of the three but he was relegated to being a tool to help Leclerc get pole by providing him with a tow in Q3. With a fresh power unit and on a track which allows overtaking, Sainz may be out of the picture for the race win, but a top 4 finish is still possible.
The pole position driver has won all three of the modern era GP’s here and it is a track where the cars at the front tend to finish where they started. 2019 saw the top four on the grid finish in the same order and last year only third and fourth on the grid swapped places by the finish. Ferrari had a nightmare with both cars dropping out of the top 10 due to excessive tyre wear.
Tyres Key
We have not had to talk too much about tyres this season, but today they have come to the fore in terms of race influencers. The weather remains hot and sunny and degradation is likely to be an issue. I say likely, because it is not a definite. It wasn’t a big issue in the F2 races and these Pirelli tyres in 2022 have been pretty good. Some teams may have a problem heating them up, but excessive wear is rare.
The pit lane here is very long and as a result a pit stop takes around 27 seconds. That means making as few stops as possible is preferable. Last season was a classic case of teams using different strategies. Mercedes opted for a one stop and were caught in the dying laps by the two stopping Verstappen. Perez did his Perez thing by doing a long first stint and then a sprint finish on fresher tyres, catching Bottas to take third. It was a mistake by Mercedes, but they felt they had to do something different.
Different Approaches
Today we have two teams who are approaching the race differently. Ferrari will remember what happened to them last year and they will be watching their tyres like a hawk. Both Leclerc and Sainz have two new sets of the medium tyres and one set of new hard tyres. The rest (all but the two Williams) have two new sets of the hards and one new set of mediums.
Ferrari are likely to do something different. An ideal one stopper is to start on the medium and finish on the hard. If they tyres don’t last then a medium/hard/hard will be needed, but Ferrari can go medium/hard/medium.
Ferrari are compromised by having Leclerc on pole, but with two Red Bulls behind him, and one of them is a tyre miser. Perez made a one stopper work last year and allowed him to beat Bottas for third. He may very well run a long first stint and finish the race on newer tyres. If Leclerc and Verstappen have made two stops, Perez may find himself in a very good position. The question would then be, does he give his place to Verstappen?
Usually these strategies come to little because we get a safety car which gives an opportunity for a free stop and strategies change, but on this track, safety cars are less likely.
Race Winner
Looking at the race winner market, Charles Leclerc is the 2.62 second favourite and Max Verstappen the 2.10 favourite. The Red Bull was faster on the long runs on Friday and much faster on the straights. They do appear to have the best race car. They have concentrated on their race set up, happy to sacrifice one lap pace for points on Sunday.
Their two-pronged attack also makes life difficult for Leclerc. If needs be, Verstappen could try the undercut to jump Leclerc at the pitstop while leaving Perez out to get track position and a fast final stint. They have the options, Ferrari do not.
Back Perez
With tyre management likely to be a key factor today, I’ll have a little go on Sergio Perez. This is his kind of scenario. In a good car, on the second row and nobody does tyre management any better than him. It may be that he is only allowed second place, but a win is not out of the question.
He also fits the bill for fastest lap as he may have the freshest tyres when the fuel is low, late in the race. It is two bets on one driver which always attracts bad luck, but hopefully the low attrition rate here lowers that risk.
2022 French GP Raceday Tip: 1 point e/w Sergio Perez to win @ 11.00 generally available
2022 French GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Perez to set the fastest lap @ 10.00 with Betfred
Outside of the big two, we have Mercedes as the next best car. The upgrade hasn’t made much difference and they were split by the upgraded McLaren of Lando Norris. I expected McLaren to struggle here as they have not enjoyed hot conditions nor long, fast corners much this season. They are a bit of a mystery team to be honest and even they don’t understand their own car.
Norris was surprised to be so far up the grid and with the Mercedes generally a better car on Sunday than Saturday, he will have his work cut out to stay ahead of Russell and probably Sainz charging from the back.
Norris has started top 6 in four races in 2022 and finished top 6 in all four. He is a best priced 1.83 to do so again, but the value is marginal. He is 1.83 to be ‘best of the rest’ which is more realistic. Lando was 0.52 seconds faster than Alonso in qualifying and the Alpine has looked strangely poor this weekend. Norris quite likes the track and has finished 9th and 5th on his previous two visits.
2022 French GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to be winning driver without the big 6 @ 1.83 with Ladbrokes
Hamilton will be looking for his fourth podium finish in a row and he has been helped by one of the Ferraris starting from the back of the grid. He is a 2.30 shot to get another podium but he will need one of the cars ahead to have a problem, and that has been a common occurrence this season.
The top four drivers have only all finished the race four times in 2022. Lando Norris is the only driver outside of the top 3 teams to score a podium finish in 2022 but he started from third place that day. Even at 17.00 he makes little appeal on a low attrition track.
Sainz Has Speed
Carlos Sainz has arguably been the fastest man of the weekend so far. But for having to take his grid penalty, he would be very much in the hunt for a race win. He will have to fight his way through a lot of traffic today, but this is a good track for overtaking and so long as he doesn’t crash into someone, he should make his way up to join the rest of the big three come the end of the race. He is only a 1.57 shot for a top 6 finish which is a bit thin on value.
Sainz can be backed at 2.25 to win Ladbrokes Group 1 where his is up against Norris, Alonso and Russell. Obviously those three get a big head start but Sainz is over a second faster than the best of that lot.
2022 French GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to win Ladbrokes Group 1 @ 2.25
The other driver who is way out of position on the grid is Kevin Magnussen. The Haas is another bit of a mystery machine. It still hasn’t had any upgrades, but it has been popping up in the points in the last two races.
Schumacher had a time deleted in Q1 yesterday which knocked him out and denied a much better starting position. Magnussen was easily into Q3 but didn’t take to the track to save tyres and his engine. Like Sainz, Magnussen has a brand new Ferrari power unit and more horses than those ahead of him. Making it all the way into the top ten is a 3.50 shot for the Dane, but again he looks better backed to win his Ladbrokes group.
He is in with Zhou, Latifi and Stroll. Lance Stroll looks the main danger with the Aston good on its tyres and their long run pace on Friday was decent. He starts 15th which is better than where he starts most races, and he makes up around 5 places on average. With attrition likely (hopefully) to be low that may be more difficult, but will he be able to beat the Haas of Magnussen? Given their long run pace was around 1 second better than the Haas on Friday I’ll take the chance.
2022 French GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lance Stroll to win Ladbrokes Group 4 @ 2.75
Williams were a bit of a let-down in qualifying yesterday. Albon had shown some good pace in free practice with a couple of 8th places. It wasn’t there over a flying lap, and he only made 15th, but starts 13th. A points finish is within reach, but on a low attrition track, he might have to miss out. He ran an incredible strategy in Australia making his one pit stop on the last lap.
If he can use the hard tyres like that again here, he could have a very tidy strategy, run a very long first stint and a fast finish. The Williams was faster on the long runs than the Alfa Romeo on Friday and Albon looks a decent price to beat Zhou who starts three places behind him.
