2022 Grand National Stats That Matter – DS
2022 Grand National: Stats That Matter
So, it is almost that time of year again. The Aintree Grand National takes place this Saturday and as ever, it’ll be one of the most watched races of the year. There are a number of techniques that can prove fruitful when it comes to finding the Grand National winner. Close your eyes and stick a pin in one, pick a name you like (fav colour, mum’s name, dog’s name etc.) or simply pick one out of a hat. We are going to use a slightly more technical approach to find this year’s winner – statistics. Will the 2022 Grand National stats matter? Find out below.
Age
The sweet spot in terms of age for potential Grand National winners is between 8yo and 11yo. Since Little Polveir won as a 12yo in 1989, only two horses have managed to win at that age (Royal Athlete in 1995, Amberleigh House 2004). Younger horses don’t have a great record either. No 7yo has won since Bogskar scored during WWII in 1940. So, the stats say we have to discount any horses aged younger than 8yo and older than 11yo.
For the purposes of this piece we will focus on the top 46 horses left in the field. It is unlikely that anything rated lower will get a run. The ones to lose out at this stage include the 13yo Blaklion. The 12yo Anibale Fly is another first hurdle casualty. At the other end of the spectrum, the 7yos Coko Beach and Noble Yeats both fall victim to this statistic. We only lose four horses at this stage, 42 still remain in the running.
Cut: Blaklion, Anibale Fly, Noble Yeats, Coko Beach.
2022 Grand National Stats: Course Form
While previous experience over the Grand National fences is a big plus, it isn’t essential. However, it is fairly important that a horse has at least some previous experience of Aintree. Of the last dozen winners, ten of them had Aintree form in the book. We have our highest profile casualty to date at this stage. Delta Work went into a lot of notebooks after his X-Country heroics but unfortunately, he has never run at Aintree so a line will be put through the 8/1 favourite.
He isn’t the only strongly fancied horse to fall by the wayside. 12/1 shot Escaria Ten comes a cropper, as does the plot horse, Enjoy D’allen. Emma Lavelle’s Eclair Surf is gone (16/1) and so are Irish raiders Longhouse Poet and Davy Russell’s mount, Run Wild Fred. It’s amazing that so many horses will be running at Aintree for the first time and the stats suggest they’ll be facing an uphill task.
Cut: Delta Work; Easysland; Run Wild Fred; Brahma Bull; Battleoverdoyen; Mount Ida; Longhouse Poet; Samcro; Escaria Ten; Good Boy Bobby; De Rasher Counter; Court Maid; Enjoy D’allen; Freewheelin Dylan; Augusta Gold; Poker Party; Death Duty; Eclair Surf; Fortescue; Commodore; School Boy Hours.
Winning Chase Form
Horses that win the Grand National tend to have won plenty of chases previously. Yes, Aintree may not be as tough a jumping test as it was back in the day but it is still a tricky course and it is best to have a horse that knows how to win over the bigger obstacles on your side. Of the last 15 winners, 14 had won at least three chases with one of those wins coming at 3 miles or longer.
That means rank outsider Class Conti is gone, as is another JP McManus horse, Phoenix Way. At relatively shorter odds, the Paul Nolan trained Discorama falls victim to this statistic. Farclas is fancied to go well by some but he has never won over further than 19f. So, we wave goodbye to him and Fiddlerontheroof is another one to get the chop at this stage.
Cut: Class Conti; Phoenix Way; Discorama; Farclas; Fiddlerontheroof.
2022 Grand National Stats: Current Form + Fitness
In the last eleven years, every winner has also had at least three runs that season. Seven of the winners during the same period won during the season before the race. However, I think that placed form is a decent pointer to a horse’s well being so we’ll be eliminating horses that have run less than three times this season and also horses that have run three or more times but that have failed to place.
The first horse to go at this point is last year’s Scottish National hero, Mighty Thunder. Kildisart has only been seen once this season, so that’s the end of his hopes. Cloth Cap has zero places from five runs and last year’s hero, Minella Times, has failed to complete either of his starts this season. So, it is adios to him too.
Cut: Mighty Thunder; Kildisart; Cloth Cap; Minella Times.
Odds + Weight
Horses at single figure odds do not have a great record in the Grand National. It has been a graveyard for favourite backers with just five winning since 2000 (Rough Quest, Earth Summit, Hedgehunter, Don’t Push It and Tiger Roll). Last year’s winner was 11/1 and since 2009 there has been winners at 100/1, 14/1 x 2, 33/1 x 2, 66/1 and 25/1 x 2. Ideally, you also want a horse carrying less than 11st 5lbs. Since Red Rum in 1977 (11-08) only four horses carried 11-05 or more to victory (Tiger Roll, Many Clouds, Don’t Push It and Neptune Collonges).
So, with a weight of 11-08 and a price of 9/1, Any Second Now loses out. Snow Leopardess is 3/3 this season but at the time of writing she was also 9/1 so unfortunately, it’s curtains for her too. Lostintranslation is due to carry 11-06 so he also goes at this stage and so does Burrows Saint (11-05). That leaves us with eight final contenders, we’ll try and sort out their finishing positions next.
Cut: Any Second Now; Snow Leopardess; Burrows Saint; Lostintranslation.
2022 Grand National Stats That Matter: The Verdict
And then there were eight. When I started this piece I wasn’t sure how it would turn out but I didn’t expect the shortest priced remaining horse to be 40/1. The biggest priced horse to sneak in is Lord Du Mesnil at 250/1. He is a horse I like but he needs bottomless ground. Bar one good run at Wetherby in December, he has been running poorly on his favoured surface so I’ll rule him out. If they get more rain than is forecast, he could sneak into the top 10.
Domaine De L’Isle was my ante-post fancy for this race and he has lasted to the final stage. However, he still needs another two to come out to be guaranteed a run. If he does get in and he is on a going day, he is no 125/1 shot. Deise Aba will bid to carry the Hemmings silks to victory and he ran really well in a hurdle race here in November. He had a good prep run when 2nd at Sandown in February and the 100/1 shot could go well for Philip Hobbs.
Ben A Doubtful Stayer
Top Ville Ben is a solid jumper for the most part but I’m not sure he’ll get this trip. He has been running over hurdles since his 3rd at Wetherby behind Good Boy Bobby and Lord Du Mesnil. Those two outstayed him that day and a similar fate could await on Saturday. Caribean Boy is a quality horse on his day but those good days are becoming rarer and rarer. He won at Kempton in January but a non-completion followed at Ascot and he has now failed to finish three of his last five starts.
Santini is 40/1 and he is an interesting runner. Yes, he flopped in the Gold Cup but his previous run was encouraging behind Chantry House. He has form figures of 21 at Aintree, both in Graded races, he stays all day and if he puts it in, he is more than capable of running a big race for Polly Gundry. The second leg of my ill-fated Spring Double, Dingo Dollar, also makes it to the final cut and he is now 66/1. You can check out my reasons for fancying him here.
Two For Gold is the final horse to have made it to this point. Kim Bailey’s charge has run three crackers this season, including in a Grade 1 last time. He unseated on his only previous try over these fences though, the only time his jumping has let him down. That is a worry but even so, he ticks a lot of boxes and he is priced up at 50/1.
Who Wins?
So, who wins? Well, having already tipped up Domaine De L’Isle and Dingo Dollar, I am not going to abandon them now. Dingo Dollar is guaranteed a run so he is narrowly preferred. Santini is a quirky type but there is no doubting his engine and class. His Aintree record is very encouraging and he could go close if he is on his best behaviour.
Two For Gold is also interesting but he has had a couple of very hard races this season on heavy/soft ground and that is not an ideal preparation. Deise Aba has finished 2nd on three of his four starts this term and you could back worse 100/1 shots than him. If Domaine De L’Isle gets in I think this test will be right up his street. He tends to get behind early but if he finishes as strongly as he did in the Becher, he could well run into a place.
