2022 GSOD Final Preview

James Punt was at it again this afternoon, firing in three more winners from four tips. Now, we are set for a cracking decider between Aspinall and Smith. Check out James’ 2022 GSOD Final preview and tips below.

Michael Smith vs. Nathan Aspinall

We have been here before. This is Smith’s fourth ranked major final of the year. It is Smith’s sixth ranked major final and he has not won any. He has also lost four non-ranked TV tournament finals. What makes it more painful is that he lost the UK Open final to Danny Noppert (who picked up his first ranked TV major at the first attempt) and then he lost the final of the European Championship to Ross Smith, another player to win at the first attempt.

Smith was the big favourite to win both, but he lost 10-11 to Noppert and 8-11 to Ross Smith. He also lost the World Championship Final for the second time and that monkey on his back just gets bigger.

Nothing Wrong

He did nothing wrong in the European Championship, just got beaten by the better player on the night. In The UK Open final he missed an open goal and 20 darts missed at doubles cost him…again. His doubling in the group stage and second round was good, but it slipped to 39% in the quarter final and 33% in today’s semi-final.

He beat Barney 16-12, which was great for our overs bet on the legs, and he smashed in 17 maximums to land the other bet single handed, but he missed 33 doubles. Bully Boy should have put Barney to bed a lot sooner than he did. He acknowledged that it was his doubling in the last two matches which made life difficult for him. He’s thinking about it. The doubling demons are loose.

Smith’s tournament average is 97.6, checkout rate is 43% and has he hit the 180s at 0.391 per leg. Very impressive and that will be hard to beat, so long as he gets his checkout rate nearer 43% than 33%.

Final Experience

Nathan Aspinall has played in just two ranking major finals, but he has won one. The first was the 2019 UK Open and a 126.00 win for followers of this blog. He was runner up in this year’s World Grand Prix. Throw in a Premier League final and he has a reasonable amount of big TV final experience.

Aspinall’s tournament stats are, tournament average 94.1, checkout rate 37% and 180s at 0.244 per leg. Advantage to Smith in terms of tournament stats.

When it comes to their H2H record it could hardly be closer. Smith leads 7 – 6 but Aspinall has won their last three matches, won their only match in 2022 and on TV it is 5-4 to Smith, but again, Aspinall has won the last three. I would give it to The Asp in terms of H2H form.

Mental Strength Key

Of course, at this level, the game is 80% mental. Controlling their emotions, not getting ahead of themselves if they get a lead, not giving up if they fall behind and having the courage to win. That sounds like a strange thing to say, but some people find winning hard, especially if they really want it, if they really need it and if they have a record of failing to do it in the past. Michael Smith falls into this category.

There is the school of thought that says that Smith HAS to win a major. He is too good not to, his time will come, it is only a matter of time and so on. Those people tend to be a bit skint. A record in TV tournament finals that says played nine, lost nine is not like that without a reason.

Sometimes he just gets beaten by the better player, other times he just hasn’t been able to get it over the line. When the next opportunity comes along, there is more and more scar tissue to deal with, more demons to overcome.

The market is doing it again, making Smith the strong favourite at 1.53 and Nathan Aspinall 2.75. There is only one choice that makes any sense.

2022 GSOD Final Tip: 1 point Nathan Aspinall to win @ 2.75 with SpreadEx

Of the last ten Grand Slam finals, six have seen over 27 legs, including four of the last five. I expect Smith to put Aspinall under scoring pressure but The Asp to grind away and stay in touch and take his chances better late in the match, probably winning by a narrow margin.

2022 GSOD Final Tip: 1 point over 27.5 legs @ 2.00 with Betvictor

Smith’s 180 hitting has been phenomenal in these best of 31 leg matches. In the two he has played in there have been 26 and 25 and that was down to him. Aspinall will make a contribution and if he gets going, he can smash them in as well. An overs bet looks worthwhile.

2022 GSOD Final Tip: 1 point over 18.5 180s @ 2.37 with Ladbrokes

The most common final score in this final in the last ten years has been 16-13 which has occurred three times so I’ll have a small play on Aspinall to win by that margin.

2022 GSOD Final Tip: 0.5 point Aspinall to win 16-13 @ 15.00 with SpreadEx, Unibet, Hills

That is all for this week, but we’re back again next weekend for the Players Championship Finals from Minehead.

-JamesPunt