2022 Hungarian GP Preview and Tips – JP
2022 Hungarian GP Preview and Tips
The 2022 Hungarian GP is the final race before the summer break. The championship moved closer to Max Verstappen in France, with a self-inflicted DNF for Charles Leclerc. Ferrari then shot themselves in the foot by denying Sainz the opportunity to get a podium, preferring a ‘safe 5th place’ and a point for the fastest lap.
As a team, their ability to underachieve is legendary. They say that there is no reason why they can’t win the remaining ten remaining races, but most would disagree, strongly. However, they should be able to win this weekend, in much the same way as they should have won the Monaco GP.
Short, Slow and Twisty
The Hungaroring in not a typical circuit. It’s a short, slow twisty track with only one real straight and very limited overtaking opportunities. It is, in my opinion, one of the better tracks which has been the scene of some great races and its fair share of surprise results. It has been very kind to long time followers. Alonso’s debut win in 2003 at 41.00 and the Hamilton/Raikkonen dual forecast at 151.00 in 2009 were the high points.
The pole position driver has won just three of the eight turbo hybrid era races here. The attrition rate is 3.25 over the last eight but it has been as high as 7 last year, but as low as 1 in three different years. Wet weather seems to be the key. We have seen two rain affected races in the last eight years and they produced a total of 13 not classified.
Shock Result
Last year there was another big surprise winner in the shape of Esteban Ocon in the Alpine. It was all down to wet weather at the start of the race, which lead to Bottas missing his braking point and taking out multiple cars at the first corner. He was supported by Lance Stroll taking out some of those who had escaped the first round of the carnage.
Bottas, Perez, Leclerc and Stroll were all out on lap one. Norris retired with crash damage on lap two and Mazepin in lap 3. Max Verstappen raced on with a heavily damaged car and could only finish ninth, behind the two Williams. Even after the race ended, the drama was not over. Sebastian Vettel, who finished in a fine second place, was disqualified for having insufficient fuel to provide a sample for testing.
Will It Rain?
In the turbo hybrid era, the Hungarian GP has been won by four different teams, and only Monza can match that. Is there a chance of a freak result this year? Unlikely, unless the weather throws in a curve ball. The forecast is for very hot weather on Friday with a 40% chance of a thunderstorm. Saturday a little cooler but with an 88% chance of thunderstorms, while race day will be warm, cloudy but with a much reduced chance of any rain.
As usual, forecasts tend to change as the week goes on and despite the hot weather, it should be remembered that it can, and does rain here. It looks like the wet weather tyres may be required this weekend and more likely on Saturday than Sunday.
High Downforce
The circuit requires a high downforce set up and is close to Monaco in terms of its demands on car and driver. Of course, this year’s Monaco GP was hit by a heavy downpour before the start of the race and as it dried, the conditions allowed the opportunity for Ferrari to lose a sure win.
The track’s characteristics will suit Ferrari. Their car performs better in the corners and the lack of long straights will blunt some of the Red Bull’s qualities. The Ferrari also has better traction out of the slow corners and there are plenty of those on this short lap.
Must win
This is a must win race for Ferrari. They are 82 points behind Red Bull and only 44 ahead of Mercedes. Leclerc is 63 points behind Verstappen and Carlos Sainz, only 1 point ahead of George Russell. If Ferrari not only fail to win the championship, but were to finish third, that would be a disaster. The pressure is really on them now.
Charles Leclerc has not taken his mistake in France well. He has gone home to Monaco and is not coming out until he gets on the plane to Hungary. He is stewing in his own juice. Perhaps not the best mental preparation for the weekend.
2022 Hungarian GP: Driver Records
Looking at the turbo hybrid era, the driver with the best record is Lewis Hamilton. He has four wins and two other podiums from eight starts. Sebastian Vettel has two wins and two other podiums, and of course, crossed the line in second place last year, only to be disqualified.
Pierre Gasly has three top 6 finishes form four starts, Ricciardo a win and two other podiums. Alonso, who won his first F1 race here in 2003, has always finished top 8 from his six starts in the turbo hybrid era, while steady Eddie, Carlos Sainz, has seven consecutive points scoring finishes.
On the negative side, Max Verstappen has never won here, with two second places his best results. His would-be title rival, Charles Leclerc, has never finished on the podium and retired in two of his four starts. Sergio Perez, who had a stinker in France, has only had two points paying finishes.
2022 Hungarian GP: Recent Form
The recent form picture is a bit messy. It is probably fair to say the Red Bull and Ferrari are very close in terms of performance, but who is favourite for each race can be track orientated. This track, like Monaco, plays into Ferrari’s strengths. It does look like theirs to lose, but they are good at doing just that.
Max Verstappen has won seven of the twelve races so far, Charles Leclerc three, but only one of the last nine. He has failed to finish in three of the last seven races, all from pole position. His win in Austria was his only podium finish in the last seven.
Clearly, Red Bull are pretty much maxing out their performance after a wobbly start, while Ferrari have dropped a lot of points. Seven DNF’s between their two drivers compared to five for Red Bull and just two in the last seven races. It is easy to tell which team is used to fighting for championships, and which one isn’t.
Mercedes Overachieving
Mercedes is outperforming their potential, thanks to two good drivers and very reliable car. Just one DNF between the two all season, they have been able to sit back and let podiums land in their lap. They have arguably only deserved one of them, and that was last weekend, but then again, not only did Leclerc crash out, but the other Ferrari had to start on the back row and perhaps should have been allowed to finish third.
Qualifying is their weakness. They struggle to get the tyres into the right operating window over a single lap, even in hot conditions. Their race pace is better and being easy to their tyres is more of an asset in a race, than the liability in qualifying. We get cars like this every year. A car can be great in qualifying and poor in the race, and visa versa.
It is rare that that changes over the season as it tends to be a design characteristic built into the cars. Mercedes performs best on very smooth track surfaces and while this isn’t particularly bumpy, it is not an ultra-smooth surface like they had last week and at Silverstone.
Mercedes realise that this circuit will be difficult for them. Overtaking is difficult and there is a premium on qualifying, which is their weak point. They need to be third row and be ready to pick up on any problems ahead of them, not behind Alpines or McLarens.
Alpine Upwardly Mobile
Alpine have overtaken McLaren for 4th place. They have had a car in the top 6 in three of the last four races and five double points finishes from the last seven. McLaren have had just one top 6 in the last four and only three double points finishes from the last seven. Alpine are improving, understanding their car and bringing incremental upgrades on a regular basis.
McLaren had to come up with a plan B after their brake problem in the opening race, and they have been inconsistent since then. They have tended to bring bigger upgrades, less often, and they take longer to understand them and make them work.
Alpine are marching in a straight line, McLaren are zig-zagging. Their upgrade for the French GP worked, in qualifying at least, and now they have to fine tune it. Alpine, the only team to bring an upgrade to every race so far, will have more upgrades. They have also bucked the trend of having overweight cars are say they are only a couple of kilos over the minimum weight.
Alfa Romeo Have Stalled
Alfa Romeo have hit a wall. Not a single point scored in the last three races. Four blanks in the last five races and just one points finish for Zhou in the last eleven. Bottas’ pace in qualifying is a good example of how far they have fallen. In the first six races his average qualifying position was 7.66, in the last six, 12.66.
Haas continue to confuse and confound. With 34 points, I guess they have already exceeded expectations, but they are close enough to Alfa Romeo to smell an opportunity to steal sixth place. They are just seven points behind and finally, this weekend, they will have their first proper upgrade of the season. It might not work, but it should have a positive effect.
Only Magnussen will have the upgrade and he admits to being a bit nervous. They have done well by getting the most of what they have, understanding the car, and this weekend is a bit of a step in the dark. Haas didn’t do any big upgrades in 2021, so this will indeed be a very novel situation for the team.
Big Upgrade
Alfa Tauri got their big upgrade last weekend, and while it appeared to work in Friday’s free practice, things didn’t go so well in qualifying or the race, especially for their main man, Pierre Gasly. It may be that they just need more time to exploit the upgrade and both drivers did say that the car was better, but they lost their way over the weekend.
They had a double top 6 finish here last year but lightning is unlikely to strike twice. The fact is that they haven’t scored a point in the last four races. Where they have gone well is on tracks with slow, twisty sections, so on paper, the Hungaroring should suit them. Their upgrade in France was to address their problems in faster corners and we will just have to wait and see if they are still strong in the slower stuff.
Aston Martin Progressing
Aston Martin are making progress, it may be sloth like, but they are very slowly closing the gap to Alpha Tauri. They have had more tenth place finishes than any other team and that sums up where they are. Qualifying is a big weakness, but their race pace is reasonable. They remain underrated, in terms of race pace, and are better backed after qualifying, much like Mercedes.
Williams are also making progress. They introduced their big upgrade at Silverstone but only on Albon’s car and he didn’t even reach the first corner there. He finished 12th and 13th in the following two races to help gather more data and there are signs of better performance in the car, but the problem is that other teams are also bringing upgrades and their upgrades have to be better if they are to start scoring points. A high attrition race is still their best chance of adding to their 3 points.
2022 Hungarian GP: Ante Post Selections
The best qualifiers should have an advantage this weekend. That means the usual suspects. Leclerc and Verstappen are the two best qualifiers in 2022. Sainz is next best, followed by Perez. The track should favour Ferrari and Leclerc should be in the box seat for pole position. He has had seven from twelve, but he failed in the wet in Britain with Carlos Sainz taking that one. Sainz got his joint second best qualifying position in Monaco, so that again bodes well for him this weekend.
Betting ante post on the fastest qualifier at this stage is extra risky, due to the weather forecast for Saturday. If it is wet, I prefer Sainz’ chances. He is very good in the wet, in the dry, Leclerc would be favourite. It is worth holding fire on qualifying and wait and see what the weather is likely to do on the day.
Being on pole doesn’t guarantee a race win here. In the turbo hybrid era we have had three winners from pole, one from second, two from third, one from fourth and one from eighth last year.
Sainz Won’t Mind Rain
Carlos Sainz shouldn’t be handicapped by any rain on Saturday. Also, he won’t have any grid penalties this weekend having taken his pain in France last weekend. His track record is decent without being great, but six consecutive points finishes in four different cars, suggests he knows his way around the track.
He has what appears to be the best car for the track and the only big downside is that he drives for Ferrari. The car isn’t the most reliable and their strategists seem to have a culture of lunchtime drinking. But they can and have won. They have had two wins here in the turbo Hybrid era, so they know what is required in terms of set up.
Sainz can be backed at 7.00 e/w the top two, but it is probably worth taking a bigger price and going all in for the win.
2022 Hungarian GP Tip: 2 points Carlos Sainz to win @ 8.00 with Betfred
I am keen to keep Alpine onside. Their upgrade program has been very successful, and they are getting good results with both drivers. Ocon is struggling in qualifying, over two places shy of Alonso, and that might be the difference this weekend. He is starting to reel Ocon in and on the track where he scored his first win, he will be feeling positive. The odds aren’t huge but worth support.
2022 Hungarian GP Tip: 1 point Fernando Alonso top 6 finish @ 2.20 with Betvictor
I will take a chance on Alpha Tauri turning things around this weekend. Gasly goes very well here and hopefully their car will retain its strengths in the slower, twisty stuff, and that they will understand their upgrade better after the French GP allowed data gathering.
