2022 Hungarian GP Raceday Update and Tips – JP
2022 Hungarian GP Raceday Update
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2022 Hungarian GP Raceday Update. You can check out his outright preview and tips here.
Raceday Preview
The shock pole position for George Russell gives him the chance to join the list of drivers to take their maiden F1 win at the Hungaroring. Lando Norris starts in fourth and he too will be looking to join the list.
Pole position seemed to be Ferrari’s to lose but the improving track conditions gave the cars that set their time in the dying seconds had the best of the conditions. Russell was just 0.044 faster than our ante post pick for the race win, Carlos Sainz, with his Ferrari teammate 3rd.
The two Red Bulls line up 10th and 11th. Verstappen had a power unit problem in Q3 while Perez had a bizarre Q2. He had his lap time deleted wrongly which dropped him out of the top 10 and he had to go out again and got pushed wide by Schumacher and couldn’t improve on his time, missing out by 0.05. Bang went our 3 point bet for him to beat Hamilton.
Unusual Grid
The grid does have a very unusual look to it. A Mercedes does not belong on pole position and the team and driver were as surprised as anyone else. The question is, can Russell convert his first pole into his first win? As I said, it is a good venue for first time winners and Russell could join the likes of Damon Hill, Fernando Alonso and Jensen Button, to take their first victory in Hungary.
The start will be important. Traditionally, the pole sitter has the advantage of being on the clean side of the track but that is open to question today. The track was washed clean by the various down pours yesterday and there was more rain this morning before the F3 race. This has had the effect of washing the rubber off the track and making the start line a more level playing field. The driver in second place got the better start in the F2 race to prove the point.
Tyre Temperature
The Mercedes also has the trait of being slow to get the tyres up to temperature. Russell has no experience of starting from an F1 pole and he now has to do a perfect formation lap, preparing his tyres and not wanting to line up on the start line for too long, letting the tyres cool down.
Sainz and Leclerc will be looking to jump the Mercedes at the start and if not, the first three corners offer the best chance to make an overtaking move before Russell has his tyres working. The ambient temperatures are 10 degrees lower today than on Friday when the teams did their long run simulations.
Small Rain Chance
The weather for today is forecast to be around 22 degrees, cloudy and more rain is forecast between 12.30 and 2.30 local time. The track could still be damp or damp in places at start time and not fully wet as it was last year. There is only a small chance of rain during the race.
As for race pace, Ferrari were nearly 0.5 faster than next best who were the Red Bulls. The Mercedes was over 1 second slower in the long runs, but this has been the case all year and when it comes to Sunday, the Mercedes becomes much more competitive.
I certainly don’t expect Ferrari to have a full second over the Mercedes, but they should have a few tenths. The track is difficult to overtake on and relatively easy to defend, so even in a slower car, Russell may be able to hold position. How he would fare at the pit stop is another matter.
Leclerc Fav
The bookmakers are making Charles Leclerc the favourite for the win. He is a 2.40 chance, Sainz 3.75, Russell 5.00 and Norris 29.00. I can’t agree that Leclerc is so much shorter than Sainz. We backed Sainz ante post so there is no need to get involved again and at 8.00, we have a good chance of getting the win.
Traditionally this season, Mercedes pick up a podium finish thanks to the struggles of one of the big two teams and this weekend, Red Bull have opened the door with a terrible qualifying session. Like Monaco, this not a track where you want to be starting halfway down the grid.
Verstappen had top 4 pace in the three practice sessions, but they had effectively conceded defeat on Friday. The Ferrari is just too quick in the slow and medium speed corners, of which there are many here. It is a case of damage limitation for Verstappen today and his poor track record looks set to continue. Perez has just looked off the pace all weekend.
Ocon Fastest Alpine
Alpine line up 5th and 6th but it was Ocon who was the faster of the two. He had been struggling in practice but nailed a great qualifying lap. They are right behind Norris in the McLaren and they were a tenth or so faster than the McLaren on Friday. Hopefully Alonso can hang on to his top 6 slot at the end of the race.
Hamilton had a DRS problem in Q3 and he will be fast today. He loves the track, as does Alonso and Ocon, and it will be a great scrap between Norris, the Alpines, Hamilton and Verstappen making his way up the leader board.
One driver who looks out of position and could have a good race is Sebastian Vettel. He was around the top 10 pace in free practice but had an off in the wet FP3 which required a lot of work on the car and he just missed out in Q1. He starts from 18th and the track specialist will be looking to move up towards the points. His long pace was good on Friday, the 6th fastest car and he is not out of the hunt for another tenth place for Aston Martin.
Lance Stroll starts from 14th and he too can make up places. His race pace is always much better than qualifying and while he is not the track specialist in the team, expect him to make an impression.
2022 Hungarian GP Raceday Selections
They may need a bit of attrition ahead of them, but Alpine have had a car in the top 6 for the last four races and now starting 5th and 6th, they have the chance to get both home top 6. Only Ferrari and Red Bull were quicker in the long runs and both Ocon and Alonso have strong positive mental associations with this track.
2022 Hungarian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point both Alpines to finish in the top 6 @ 5.00 with Unibet
Track specialist Vettel has to beat Schumacher, Zhou, Gasly, Albon and Tsunoda to land the bet. The two Alpha Tauri’s had lap times deleted in Q1 but they have not looked good all weekend. They are the closest to Aston Martin on long run pace and the rest are very likely to be slower than Vettel on race pace.
2022 Hungarian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Sebastian Vettel to win Group 4 @ 3.75 with Ladbrokes
All three start in the top 7 and all three have very good reliability. The two Mercedes have finished top 10 in eleven of the first twelve races and Norris nine times. Stay out of trouble on lap one and they have the performance to comfortably in the points.
2022 Hungarian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Russell, Hamilton and Norris all to finish in the top 10 @ 2.75 with Betfred (Turbo Boost)
I am a fan of Stroll and Aston Martin’s race pace. Like Mercedes, they struggle in qualifying, well up until yesterday they did, but come the race they usually have decent pace. Their fancy new rear wing is said to be helping them further this weekend. Stroll picks up 5 places per race on average and starting 14th is already three places better than his seasonal average.
