2022 Japanese GP Preview and Tips

James Punt landed a few lovely winners in last week’s preview. He also nailed the 10/1 winner in his Raceday Update. Can Sergio Perez follow up in Japan, or will Max Verstappen close out the title. Check out our 2022 Japanese GP preview and tips below.

2022 Japanese GP Preview

Like last weekend’s Singapore GP, F1 returns to Japan for the first time since 2019. In the turbo-hybrid era, Suzuka has been a Mercedes fortress, they have won all six races, four for Hamilton and one each for Rosberg and Bottas.

It is very much a car track, and you rarely get a surprise at Suzuka. The best packages tend to finish in the ‘right’ order. The only teams to have scored podium finishes in the turbo hybrid era are Mercedes (11), Red Bull (5) and Ferrari (2). A great track, but never one for interesting results.

Figure of 8

The track is a rare figure of 8 lay out crammed into a small parcel of land. It features 18 corners but is a fast and largely flowing lay out. It was originally built as a test track for Honda, so it features fast corners, a hairpin, a chicane, a series of ‘esses’ to test change of direction and a couple of reasonable straights. In terms of lay out, Suzuka is not unlike Zandvoort, but faster, like Spa and Silverstone.

There is a good mix of left and right-handed corners and it is hard on tyres, so Pirelli have brought the three hardest compounds in their range. FP2 on Friday is scheduled to be a 90 minute session to allow Pirelli to test 2023 prototype slicks.

Rain Forecast

They might have a problem doing so as the weather is forecast to be wet on Friday. Saturday is set to be sunny and dry; Sunday is forecast to be dry, but with a chance of some rain late in the race. When it rains here, it really rains, and around 8 hours and 18mm of rain is expected on Friday. With the rest of the weekend likely to be dry, do not be surprised not to see much running on Friday. Why risk crashing and using up valuable power unit time?

With Mercedes having dominated in the turbo hybrid era, obviously Hamilton and Bottas have good track records. Hamilton has four wins and two third places, Bottas a win and a second. Sebastian Vettel has three podiums and was on pole in 2019. Max Verstappen has yet to win but has two second places and a third.

Ricciardo has five top 6 places and Suzuka has always been more about the car than the driver. It is a track that rewards power and aero efficiency. It is safe to say that it will be a very good track for the Red Bulls and a toss-up between the Ferraris and Mercedes for the other podium place.

Honda Owned Track

The track is still owned by Honda and Red Bull will be running Honda logos. The speculation is that with Porsche deciding not to enter F1 with Red Bull, Honda will continue to work with Red Bull power trains for the new generation of power units coming in 2026. Honda never got to enjoy the plaudits of the championship winning car on their own track last year and this year will be something of a delayed celebration and an important race for Red Bull to win.

With this being a car track, and the Red Bull being the best package in 2022, Max Verstappen should get back to winning ways. It isn’t a street circuit that would suit Perez, but they had a 1-2 at Spa, so don’t be surprised if we get another here. The high-speed nature of a couple of long duration curves may not suit Mercedes ideally, but they have had two podiums on similar tracks this year and another would not be a surprise. The track surface is smooth and that is half the battle for Mercedes.

Track Should Suit Alonso

Alonso has gone well on similar circuits this season, all top 6 finishes. There has to be a worry about the double power unit failure Alpine suffered in Singapore and there could be more of the dreaded grid penalties for one or both of their drivers. It looks like Alonso will have to take a new unit and a penalty, but the team hope to be able to get Ocon to the end of the season with no more new units.

If the Alpines are out of position, Norris will be there to pick up the pieces but it’s hard to say if this will be a good track for McLaren. Ricciardo is a bit of a track specialist, but he doesn’t really have the tools at his disposal and while he came 5th last weekend, he got a bit lucky with so many retirements. His qualifying pace meant he didn’t get out of Q1 and remains hard to support.

More Points For Aston Martin

Aston Martin will be looking for more minor points and should get them and maybe an Alpha Tauri can score points in their Red Bull/Honda powered car. Aston Martin leapt up to 7th place in the constructor’s championship which will be worth mucho dinaro. They will have a small upgrade for this weekend and while they were flattered by the number of DNF’s in Singapore, they have scored points in nine of the last eleven races, while the team in 6th place, Alfa Romeo, have just one point from the last eight.

Verstappen might be able to clinch the title this weekend, but to do so he needs to win, and he is the 1.60 favourite. That is on the generous side, even at odds on. Should we wait until after qualifying in case Ferrari take another pole? Probably not. Verstappen has qualified 2/1/1 at Silverstone, Spa and Zandvoort, so this track should allow them to dominate in all sessions.

2022 Japanese GP Tip: 2 points Verstappen to qualify on pole position @ 2.50 with Ladbrokes, Hills, Sky

2022 Japanese GP Tip: 2 points Verstappen to win the race @ 1.60 with Ladbrokes

I fancy more points for Aston Martin, but their strength is on Sundays and not in qualifying, so we may get a better price later. They are 4.25 for a double points finish, which they got last week, but only twice in the entire season. However, they have been just 1 place out in three of the last six. That might be worth revisiting later.

Alpha Tauri will be aiming to give Honda a good race and Gasly is at backable odds. He has qualified reasonably well at similar tracks to this, and after a barren spell he has scored in three of the last four races. His Japanese teammate, Yuki Tsunoda, has a lot of experience of driving here and he may go well, but his race craft needs polishing up and he is pointless in the last 11 races.

2022 Japanese GP Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to finish in the points @ 2.40 with Ladbrokes

The attrition rate here in the turbo hybrid era has been low, with an average of 1.67, and four have seen 1 or no retirements. This season has seen an average of 3.05 so far and odds of 2.20 for more than 17.5 are not good enough.

At Alfa Romeo, the form of Bottas continues to be poor. He was in good form in the first half of the season, scoring points in seven of the first nine races. In the last eight? Not a single one. He is starting to make Zhou look competitive.

The Chinese driver has improved his qualifying form, getting out of Q1 in the last five races and beating Bottas in three of the last four qualifying sessions. In the race he has beaten Bottas in four of the last five. Mostly due to Bottas having two DNF’s, but the two are a lot closer than the odds suggest. It will be Zhou’s Suzuka debut, but he looks worth supporting at odds which are a bit dismissive.

2022 Japanese GP Tip: 1 point Zhou to beat Bottas @ 2.80 with Unibet

There will be updates through the weekend, but not at the usual times. As I have gone for Verstappen for pole ante post, there will be no qualifying update unless some spectacular value pops up. The race day update will likely be posted on Saturday afternoon UK time.

JamesPunt