2022 Japanese GP Raceday Update and Tips

James Punt is already off the mark at the Japanese GP. He advised Max Verstappen for pole in his ante-post preview and he delivered at odds of 2.50. He has another preview ready, check out his 2022 Japanese GP raceday update below.

2022 Japanese GP Raceday Preview

The first thing to look at is the latest weather forecast. So far, the forecasts have been spot on but the race day forecast was always the tricky one. The race starts at 2pm local time and the forecasters are saying it will be a cloudy day with a 70% chance of rain for the afternoon.

It will be lighter than what we got on Friday and the worst of the weather will be around 6pm, after the race is finished. However, it does looks like there will be some moderate rain during the race.

The exact timing is not clear. Some say light rain starting before the race, others say that any rain won’t arrive until nearer the end of the race. That would be the most interesting scenario. If we get a rain shower, who will blink first, would wet weather tyres be quicker, what if it is a light shower which is just passing? Stop for wets, or do a Button and stay out on dry tyres, waiting for the grip to come back. The weak consensus is that a dry start and a wet finish is the most likely outcome.

Experience Could Count

In changeable conditions, I like to have smart drivers on my list and by smart, I mean experienced drivers who have done it all before. Vettel, Hamilton and Alonso are the elder statesmen and know what is needed to take advantage of changing conditions. All three have put themselves in a position to have a very good result if we do get a bit of mixed-up race.

Hamilton qualified 6th after the Mercedes had looked very competitive in the wet conditions on Friday. I would not have expected Mercedes to be good in cool, wet conditions, but they were 1-2 in FP2.

In the dry conditions for qualifying they dropped well back and are the best part of a second a lap off the pace. They generally have a better race car than qualifier and as usual, they are a bit of conundrum.

Mercedes are suffering on the straights and the wet conditions probably helped hide that weakness. They have adopted a high downforce set up which is hurting them on the straights, but in the wet, they could thrive. In the dry, they are not looking forward to a great race.

Alpine Going Well

Alonso was fastest in FP1 in the wet and the upgraded Alpine is going well. Alonso was 4th in FP3 and Ocon qualified 5th, Alonso 7th. Wet or dry, they look set to make gains on rivals McLaren who are not looking great so far. Alpine are even in with a chance of beating Mercedes on merit.

Sebastian Vettel loves the track, and he pulled out his joint best qualifying performance of the year by getting 9th place on the grid. Theirs is another car which has gone better in the race than in qualifying which bodes well for his chances of a nice result.

He is running with a big rear wing and again, he might get some benefit in any wet running. When he has qualified in the top ten, he has finished in the top ten, including a 6th place in Baku, helped by a double DNF for Ferrari.

2022 Japanese GP raceday Tip: 1 point Sebastian Vettel to finish in the points @ 1.80 with Hills

We are on Verstappen to win the race at 1.60 and his odds have generally come in a little after he narrowly got pole ahead of the two Ferraris. It was closer than expected but the Ferrari has gone well so far. It remains to see how well they will go in the race.

They have struggled relative to Red Bull in most races this season and if we do get some rain during the race, they will have to let their strategists make some decisions, and we know how well that usually goes.

The rest of the field are too far behind pace wise and they would the rain to really throw in a serious curve ball to give us a winner outside of the a Red Bull or Ferrari. Indeed, we have only had one single podium for a driver outside of the Big Three and that was way back in the 4th race of the season when Norris got third. Rain played a part in the race, so maybe we might see a different face on the podium.

Rain Could Change Things

In the three rain affected races in 2022 all have been wet then drying. Today might be dry, then raining and that could make things different. However, if the Red Bulls and Ferraris have already opened up a big gap to the field, they would have plenty of wriggle room. We would need a scenario where the field was bunched by a safety car and somebody got lucky with timing a pitstop.

Top 6 finishes have been much more achievable for the midfielders and that is likely to be the case again today. Ten different drivers have finished top 6 at least once in 2022. Norris has don it 5 times, Alonso 4, Ocon 3, Bottas 3 and Ricciardo 2.

Alpine Likely

On what we have seen so far, it is the Alpine drivers who are most likely to add to their tally later. Wet or dry, the Alpine has been competitive. Alonso has had back-to-back DNF’s and neither driver has scored in the last two races. It is time for them to hit back.

Alpine are just 3.50 for a double top 6 but I’ll stick with Ocon. He has finished 6th and 9th in his last two races here and starting 5th he is very much in the frame, especially if Mercedes struggle on the straights again. The Alpine is making real progress performance wise and so long as they don’t have more reliability problems, he is a good enough driver to get another top 6.

2022 Japanese GP raceday Tip: 1 point Esteban Ocon to finish in the top 6 @ 2.62 with Hills*

*Hills have an enhanced offer of 2.87 for Ocon Top 6, so you might be able to get 50p on at that price.

There is very little of interest for this race. We have our ante post bet on Max Verstappen to win the Drivers’ Championship which could land in this race, but if not here, then very shortly, but it would be fitting to win at a track that was once famous for crowning champions and the famous piss ups in the Log Cabin afterwards.

JamesPunt