2022 Kempton Boxing Day Preview and Tips – DS
2022 Kempton Boxing Day Preview and Tips
The Festive season is upon us and the next few days will be relentless. Dave Stevos has already posted four Xmas fancies, check them out here. We’ll be in action on both sides of the Irish sea on St Stephens’/Boxing Day and in this preview, we’ll focus on the live ITV action from Kempton and the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby. Hopefully we can get the holidays off to a good start, check out Dave’s 2022 Kempton Boxing Day tips below.
12.45 – Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1)
After Ascot was cancelled due to the weather, the Long Walk was rescheduled to today. Just the five run and it will be a very different test at Kempton compared to Ascot. It is usually a proper stamina test, exactly what Paisley Park needs. However, Kempton is a much flatter, easier track so perhaps speed may play a bigger role than it normally does.
Paisley Park is an out and out stayer so he could well be up against it. Connections won’t care if he’s beaten, all roads lead back to Cheltenham for him. Goshen most definitely has a bit of toe and if he is going to stay this far, this is the best track for it to happen. Miranda is proven over C&D, albeit only at Listed level. To be fair, she was mightily impressive when slamming Martello Sky but she was getting 4lbs and this is a far tougher assignment.
Track Concerns Champ
Champ, the winner of this last year (at Ascot). Is the 15/8 jolly. He held off the late surge of Paisley Park at Newbury last time but this track may not be ideal for him. All his best recent form is on testing, galloping tracks. Not So Sleepy has yet to race over this far and at 10 years old, he is no spring chicken.
However, he ran a cracker over 18f on the flat in the Cesarewitch in October and like Goshen, his best chance of staying 3 miles over timber is on a track like this. Given the holes I’ve picked in the opposition, a small e/w interest in Not So Sleepy has to be the way to go. He’s definitely the speediest horse in the race, hopefully he can settle and see it out.
2022 Kempton Boxing Day Tip: Not So Sleepy e/w @ 11/1
1.20 – Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
Another small field for this 24f Novices’ Chase with just five due to go to post. There’s been a huge amount of talk about McFabulous. He has sluiced up on good ground in small fields the last twice, including a 6.5L G2 win at Newbury (23f gd) ahead of Thyme Hill.
He has won 10 races during his career and though the majority came on nice ground, he does have pretty strong form on soft. However, while he has won three of his last six, the other three races during that spell saw him pulled up and beat 18L at Aintree and 24L at Cheltenham. Kempton does suit him though (2/2 there) and he deserves to be favourite.
High Class Hurdler
Thyme Hill is a top class hurdler but as of yet, he hasn’t transferred that ability to chasing. McFabulous had his measure last time out and connections will hope that he can close the gap on this slower ground. The 8yo needs to jump better today, if he does, he could well put it up to the jolly.
Galia Des Liteaux is something of an unknown quantity. She won a Listed Novice against her own sex last time at Bangor (17f hvy) and that earned her a rating of 141. This is a big step up in trip and grade but she has at least won a P2P over 3 miles. Should she be half the price of Thyme Hill? I don’t think so. She’ll arguably need to improve another stone to beat the top two rated horses here.
Gelino Bello was a 24f G1 scorer over hurdles at Aintree last April. This season he is 2/2 since going chasing, winning two Mickey Mouse races at Exeter and Wetherby. The son of Saint Des Saints is clearly talented, he handles soft and it’ll be interesting to see if he takes on his stablemate McFabulous for the lead. If I was having a bet here it would probably be on Thyme Hill as he looks the most overpriced. 6/1 with 2 places isn’t big enough for the blog though so keep the powder dry. No Bet.
2022 Kempton Boxing Day Tip: No Bet
1.35 Wetherby – Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (Premier)
25/1 about a horse that won this three years ago and who was placed last year off a higher mark seems far too big. Top Ville Ben is a 10yo now and he obviously isn’t getting any younger. However, he is still a very talented animal on his day, as he showed when landing a very nice pot at Lingfield over timber last January.
His last chase start came at Aintree in the Grand National. He never landed a blow after being hampered early on and you can put a line through that run. Kirby gave him a spin over timber last month, an outing that will hopefully have sharpened up nicely for another tilt at this race.
In 2021 Top Ville Ben was beat 10L into 3rd here off 150 and he is now rated 144. That’s 10lbs lower than he was when winning it in 2019. His chase form figures at Wetherby read 115153 so he clearly loves the track and Tommy Dowson knows him inside out. Into Overdrive is an obvious danger if he repeats the form of his last run but at 25s, I’m more than happy to take a chance on Top Ville Ben e/w.
2022 Wetherby Boxing Day Tip: Top Ville Ben e/w @ 25/1 NAP
1.55 – Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1)
A poor turnout again but with Constitution Hill in the field, you can’t blame the opposition for running scared. This insanely talented son of Blue Bresil blew his rivals away at Newcastle last time. His flat speed is incredible and he is low and fast over his hurdles. That is the only possible hole I can pick in him. He is so quick over the hurdles that it would probably only take a small clip to send him sprawling. I’m probably clutching at straws though, it is almost impossible to see how he can get beat today.
He has already laughed at Epatante, beating her on the snaff with Nico waving to the cameras. Sceau Royal is a talented hurdler but he would like better ground. Metier and Highway One O Two have two stone to find to trouble the fav. An uncompetitive looking race but at least we’ll get to see Constitution Hill in action. Barring accidents, he wins at 1/7 and Epatante should finish 2nd.
2022 Kempton Boxing Day Tip: No bet
2.30 – King George VI Chase (grade 1)
I’ve already put Eldorado Allen up for this and he runs. He was 25/1 ante-post and he is the same price now. I’m happy enough to be on him and I do think he has a good place chance, but is he good enough to win it? With L’Homme Presse (and Hitman) in the field, probably not. I hold Venetia’s horse in very high regard and the world is his oyster this season. He landed the Rehearsal off top weight on his seasonal return and that should have blown away the cobwebs.
It was a fairly hard race to run in first time up and this is a very different track to Newcastle, Cheltenham, Ascot and Sandown, where he has done most of his winning. Personally, I don’t think he lacks speed and he should be absolutely fine around Kempton. A bigger worry for me is whether that comeback run left a mark on him. He has had 30 days to recover, which should be enough, but lugging 12 stone for 3 miles around Newcastle would be tough for any horse, no matter how talented.
Nicholls’ Has Strong Hand
Paul Nicholls has an outstanding record in this race and he runs three this time. Until it was confirmed that L’Homme Presse would run here, Bravemansgame was the fav. He likes this kind of track and on his last C&D run, he beat Ahoy Senor by 7.5L. On his seasonal comeback he beat Eldorado Allen 3.5L at Wetherby. However, he was getting 3lbs from that rival so there might not be much between them off levels today. He also runs Frodon, an admirable front runner who might come up short, just like last year.
Hitman is Nicholls’ other runner. I am a big believer in this horse. Last year I put him up twice and he placed on both occasions, in the Tingle Creek (16f) and also in the Melling at Aintree (20f). He hacked up over 21f in a weak affair on his last start and he now tackles 24f for the first time. Will he stay? On pedigree you couldn’t be sure but on his run style, I think he will. That last run should serve as a big confidence booster and this could be the day he announces himself at the top table.
Consistency Issues
Envoi Allen is the sole Irish representative. Henry De Bromhead’s charge is a beast of a horse on his day but inconsistency has plagued him. On his last five starts he has won twice and been well beaten thrice. The step up to 24f seemed to suit the son of Muhtathir when he landed the Irish Champion Chase at Down Royal and he looked back to his best there. Will he back it up though? He hasn’t put solid back to back runs together since 2020/21 so you couldn’t bank on it.
Ahoy Senor was 66s for this race a week or so ago. That was an insane price considering his Novice form and he didn’t run that badly behind Noble Yeats last time out. However, he hasn’t been able to dominate his races like he did as a Novice and he is paying the price at the business end of races. He is a more realistic price now at 20/1, but he’ll need to rediscover his old spark to feature.
Pagaille Price Puzzling
I’m a bit puzzled to see Royal Pagaille as short as 14/1 here. Often a hyped horse, he has some reputation for an animal that has won just twice in two years. At this meeting in 2020 he landed a C&D handicap off 140 and since then he won a G2 handicap at Haydock in Jan 21 and the same race in Jan 22.
Last season he followed that Haydock win with a 2nd behind Eldorado Allen at Newbury, before finishing well beaten in G1 company at Cheltenham and Aintree. Should he be 10 points shorter than Eldorado? Not in my book, especially as he also lacks a recent run.
Millers Bank is a very talented horse on his day and this trip and track could suit. However, he has been beat fair and square the last twice and it is hard to see him being good enough. I’m satisfied to be on Eldorado Allen e/w but I am also going to have a win bet on Hitman. I thought he would be 5s or 6s today and I’ve been talking him up for long enough, so it is time to put my money where my mouth is. Fingers crossed the race lives up to its billing and may the best horse win.
2022 Kempton Boxing Day Tip: Eldorado Allen already advised e/w @ 25s; Hitman win @ 8/1 NB
