2022 Mexico GP Preview and Betting Tips

Not much went right for us on raceday at the US GP. Form is temporary and class is permanent though, as the saying goes, and James Punt is hoping to get back on the winning trail this weekend. Check out his 2022 Mexico GP outright betting preview and tips below.

2022 Mexico GP Preview

Another comfortable win for Max Verstappen and Red Bull saw the constructor’s championship wrapped up and the only battles are now for the lesser places. The top 3 in the constructors is set, barring something extraordinary.

The Alpine vs. McLaren battle for 4th place is still very much on with Alpine just six points ahead, but this may increase should Alpine successfully appeal against Alonso’s post-race penalty which cost them 6 points.

The race for 6th place is becoming a procession for Aston Martin now. They are just 1 point off Alfa Romeo and catching them hand over fist. That is quite the comeback for Aston Martin, who were a bit of a basket case early in the season.

Alpha Tauri is battling Haas for eighth place with just two points between them. These places are important in terms of prize money earned, but also how much wind tunnel time allowed for next season. Ironically, the team finishing last gets more time, but the teams still need the prize money.

In the drivers’ championship, there are just two points between Leclerc and Perez to see who comes second. This is Perez’ home race and he will be looking for a big result.

Thin Air At Altitude

The Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico City is a real outlier on the F1 calendar. It is set in Mexico City and 7350 feet above sea level. At that altitude the air is thin and this has a big effect on the cars’ downforce.

In simple terms, the thin air reduces the amount of drag and downforce produced by the cars and we will see everyone sporting a high downforce set up more usually seen at places like Monaco, but it does not produce the same kind of downforce.

The thin air also reduces the power produced by the ICU as there is less oxygen in the air, but this affects all the ICUs in much the same way. One factor which has been significant in recent years here is that the Honda power units have always been very competitive.

Even in the days when it was a poorly regarded under powered product, it went well here. It has something to do with the Honda turbo being able to run at higher revolution rates and produces more power.

Tough to Overtake

It is not an easy track on which to overtake and it is another track where it is not easy to make up a lot of places. Pole position has not been much of an advantage however, with just two wins from pole from the six races. Two have been won from second place and two from third.

It tends to be all about getting through the first few corners intact. It is very long down the straight before heavy braking into a sharp right, left, right combination and this is often the scene of contacts and cars going off track to avoid collisions. There is then another straight before another three corner combination leading into a fast Silverstone style esses, followed by a short straight and finally the fiddly, slow stadium sector. It is a reasonably short lap with 17, mostly slow corners. It is hard to compare it to other tracks due to the effects of the altitude.

Track Form

Drivers with good records here are Max Verstappen with three wins, Hamilton with two wins and two seconds, Vettel with two second places and Pierre Gasly with three top 10s and he was 4th last year, no doubt helped by Honda power units at altitude. Carlos Sainz has not had much joy here with just the one top 10 finish, sixth last year. Mercedes and Red Bull both have three wins apiece but it has been a Red Bull Honda track in recent years.

Max Verstappen has won seven of the last eight races and it doesn’t matter what is thrown at him, whether it be grid penalties or 11 second pitstops, he just crushes everyone. He is the 1.67 favourite to win this weekend, which is generous, but clearly the market is expecting Red Bull to favour Perez at his home GP. He has the best car at his disposal, but he just can’t use it as well as Verstappen.

No Guarantees

There is no guarantee that Perez can just rock up and win if Verstappen is told to let him. He does his best driving on street circuits and this is not a street circuit. He is only the fourth best qualifier in 2022 and if Verstappen wasn’t here this weekend, it would be no surprise to See Perez start third and then having to beat both Ferraris.

Verstappen can win this at a canter, Perez will have to work and hope that the team tell Verstappen to let him pass and that can only happen if he can beat the Ferraris.

Mercedes is still looking for that elusive first win in 2022. Everything nearly fell into place for them last weekend with grid penalties for Perez and Leclerc, Sainz being nerffed off by Russell on lap one and then a 11 second pit stop for Verstappen which allowed Hamilton to lead the race. In the end, Verstappen just slashed his lead and drove past like Hamilton was driving a bus.

Toto Hopeful

Toto Wolff is saying that this track might be the one thanks to the thin air. Their car is very draggy and would hate this track at sea level due to the long straights, but in the thin air, they will be able to cut through the air more easily and not be punished as much as usual. The problem with that argument is, so will everyone else.

And then we have Honda’s historic advantage in terms of engine power. Red Bull start favourite everywhere and Mexico City is no different. The Mercedes is losing around 7 mph down the straights to the Red Bull and even if that gap was reduced due to thin air, it won’t be down to zero, and there is a very long straight here.

If Perez is to be gifted a win at home, he needs to be able to beat both Ferraris and maybe a Mercedes. Apart from his two wins this season he has finished second behind Verstappen five times, that is five opportunities for him to have been gifted a win and two won on merit. Seven from the nineteen races so far.

1-2 Red Bull?

If the Red Bull does hold a car advantage on this track thanks to the Honda factor, then this might be an occasion where Perez should be finishing 1-2 with his teammate. It was a 1-3 finish for them last year with Lewis Hamilton sandwiched between the two Red Bulls. Perez was just 1.2 seconds behind Hamilton at the end of the race and in this year’s car, he shouldn’t be behind a Mercedes.

If he can beat both Ferraris, then his opportunity will come. I am pretty Sure that Red Bull would like to manufacture a win for their number 2 at his home race. Would Verstappen be happy to have to surrender a race win? Probably not, he is a racing driver, and he wants to win everything. Would he follow orders? Probably. He has the title, and he will need Perez’ support next year, so keeping him sweet here makes sense.

Perez also took a new power unit in Texas last weekend meaning he will have a nice fresh and slightly more powerful engine for his home race. Clearly, he was being set up for this weekend.

2022 Mexico GP Tip: 1 point Sergio Perez to win the Mexican GP @ 6.00 generally available

We were very unlucky not to land the Aston Martin double points finish last weekend. Vettel managed his top 10 despite a horrible pit stop that saw him drop to 13th at one point and Stroll was comfortably in the top 10 before he made a poor defensive move on Alonso which ended his race in spectacular style.

Clearly, the Aston is ending the season as a very fast car. They have scored in nine of the last eleven races but now it is not just a tenth place, but top 6’s are attainable. Their qualifying pace has improved and that was their major weakness.

Stroll has a three place grid penalty for causing the crash last weekend, which may not rule him out of the points, but it means Vettel is likely to be the main points scorer this weekend, on another track where he has gone well. Vettel has scored points in five of the last seven races and of those, five were 8th place or better.

2022 Mexico GP Tip: 2 points Sebastian Vettel to finish in the points @ 2.10 with Betfred

With Honda power being the thing to have in Mexico City, Pierre Gasly is backable to have his fourth consecutive points finish at this track. He has been 10th, 9th and 4th for the last three, and while this year’s Alpha Tauri is not the best car that the team has built in its various guises, it is still a potential points scorer. They have had a car in the points in four of the last six races, three of them for The Gas Man.

2022 Mexico GP Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to finish in the points @ 2.50 generally available

The weather forecast says that we will have warm, sunny and dry conditions across the weekend. There is a small chance of rain, but it does look more likely to fall after various sessions have finished. FP2 is another long session as Pirelli are running another tyre test. That will render it pretty meaningless as a form guide and having a good FP1 will be important in terms of finding a good race set up.

JamesPunt