2022 Mexico GP Qualifying Update and Betting Tips

Having an outright race bet? You can check out James’ ante-post preview here. Now, it is time for his 2022 Mexico GP Qualifying Update, check it out below.

2022 Mexico GP Qualifying Preview

It has been another very disjointed weekend so far. FP1 saw six young drivers getting a run out, FP2 was a tyre test for Pirelli and only FP3 was truly representative of what we can expect in qualifying. FP1 was not a total waste of time but the track has evolved since then and FP3 in the more indicative session.

What we got was the two Mercedes 1st and 2nd with Russell ahead of Hamilton. Verstappen was 3rd but nearly half a second off Russell’s time. Leclerc was 4th 0.724 behind Russell, Perez 5th and Sainz 6th. Perez and Sainz were well off the pace and falling into the clutches of Norris and Bottas, who are battling for best of the rest in this qualifying session. Bottas in 8th has been looking good all weekend and the Alfa Romeo seems to be thriving in the slow corners.

Vettel Struggling

Bottas was nearly 0.5 ahead of Tsunoda in 9th who in turn was nearly 0.5 ahead of his teammate Gasly who was floundering back in 15th. Our other ante post bet, Sebastian Vettel was in worse shape, 19th and a second off tenth place. The Aston Martin suddenly looks like a shopping trolley. Alpine had both cars outside the top 10 and this high-altitude track does seem to have shaken things up.

Mercedes have had one pole position, at the high downforce Hungaroring, so clearly they go well with a lot of wing on the car. They are also helped by the track surface being smooth and the car looked as stable has it has all year.

If Mercedes really are in the frame, which driver will get it done? At the start of the summer break, Russell leads Hamilton 7-6 in qualifying, but in the six races since they returned, Hamilton is 6-0. It has not been a great qualifying venue for him, just one pole, in 2016, and he is 4-2 vs. his teammates.

Verstappen is the 3.25 favourite, Russell 3.50, Hamilton 4.00, Leclerc 7.00, Sainz 10.00 and Perez 15.00. The Red Bulls and Ferraris will have had to be carrying quite a few sandbags to give the Mercedes the kind of advantage we saw in FP3 and I’ll take a chance on Hamilton getting one of his specials strung together and get pole.

2022 Mexico GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Lewis Hamilton to be the fastest qualifier @ 4.00 with Unibet

Bottas has been on it all weekend and while the Alfa Romeo has been dog cock in the second half of the season, it has been at its best in high downforce trim. I expected good things from him at Monaco but it didn’t happen, but Bottas qualified 8th in Hungary, his best result in the last 13 qualifying sessions. He should be able to match that here and who knows, best of the rest in qualifying is not beyond the realms of fantasy.

He is 1.50 to make Q2 with Ladbrokes but it is hard to find anywhere to back him outside of this option. Ladbrokes have not priced up their ‘without the big 6’ market as is their usual. They might do it in the minutes leading up to the off and Bottas would be a runner of interest, but Norris would still be a strong favourite.

JamesPunt