2022 Miami GP Preview and Tips

The inaugural 2022 Miami GP will be held at the purpose-built Miami International Autodrome, a 5.4 km street circuit with 19 corners, but its hallmark looks to be three long straights. Average speed is expected to be 135mph and much of the lap is taken flat-out with long duration curves and the three straights, but there is a slow technical sector in the middle of the lap.

A low downforce set up will be required, so that slower technical sector will be a challenge. It is always hard to predict who a brand-new circuit will favour. However,  the long straights should be good for Red Bull and McLaren. Ferrari are bringing a low downforce set up to help with their top speed disadvantage.

2022 Miami GP: Saudi Similarities

The layout has been likened to Melbourne’s Albert Park circuit, but it also is not unlike the Saudi Arabian track in terms of the amount of time spent flat out. However, as the season has progressed, we have already seen Red Bull addressing their relative disadvantage in slower corners and Ferrari their top speed disadvantage. The two cars’ performance levels are converging in other words.

Looking at the form from Australia and Saudi Arabia we see that Red Bull got pole and won the race in Jeddah and Ferrari got pole and won the race in Melbourne. Charles Leclerc got the fastest lap at both. All that tells us is that it will another close race between the big two. Hardly news.

No Team Stands Out

Are there any other teams who did well at both Jeddah and Melbourne? The midfield is very fluid in terms of performance. There is no one team that stands out as best of the rest. Mercedes is third in the constructors table, and they had the third fastest car in both the previous street races. Alpine went well at both tracks, it didn’t work out in the races for Alonso, but Ocon did well. McLaren struggled in qualifying in Jeddah, but Norris was better in the race, and they had a good weekend in Melbourne with a double top 6 finish.

Those look like being the top five teams in Miami. After them we have a number of teams who are picking up points without really looking properly competitive. Alfa Romeo, Alpha Tauri and Haas are getting points finishes, in every race for Alpha Tauri, but it is fair to say that they have benefited from others’ demise and on pure pace they are a little behind the top five. Bottas is making the Alfa Romeo look good, either that or Zhou is struggling. Aston Martin and Williams remain detached from the midfield despite both now having scored points.

2022 Miami GP: Free Practice Crucial

A brand-new track will put a premium on getting lots of laps in free practice. Data gathering will be vital, so any mechanical problems or driver crashes will be costly. It also means bringing upgrades might be riskier here than at a more established track. I still expect the bigger upgrades to come at Barcelona in two weeks’ time.

Red Bull had updates for the last race which worked well. Ferrari are still holding back but will have some small upgrades. They will be looking at a lower downforce package to improve their performance on the straight, including a new rear wing.

Mercedes is hinting that they will have more upgrades to address the porpoising issues which are such a big problem for them, but you can never be sure with Mercedes, who like to play their cards close to their chest. It seems they will have a modest upgrade here this weekend, before a bigger one at Barcelona.

However, as the week has gone on, the rumours as to the size of the upgrade have grown. The latest is a new floor and various underbody developments and new rear wing. Certainly more than modest, but it may be that they are used in FP1 to gather data and may not be used for the rest of the weekend.

Rain Possible

The weather at the last race at Imola was cold and wet. Those conditions caused Mercedes more problems in terms of tyre warm up, especially in qualifying. Now we are in Florida, ‘The Sunshine State,’ the weather will be hot, but there is the threat of rain.

The hot conditions are triggering thunderstorms and the chance of rain on Saturday afternoon is said to be 40%, rising to 45% on Sunday. Brand new tarmac, 30+ degrees all weekend, with the chance of some rain. That has the potential to mix things up, but as it stands, it is more likely to remain dry.

2022 Miami GP: Early Season Form

Ferrari still leads both championships, but by a reduced margin after a near perfect result for Red Bull at Imola. It was mainly self-inflicted harm that cost them at one of their two home races.

In the ‘normal’ qualifying session, Carlos Sainz crashed in Q2 and while he qualified for Q3, he did not take part and would start sprint qualifying from 10th. He recovered well in the sprint race and would start from 4th for the race. His race was over quickly when he was hit by Ricciardo and forced to retire.

Leclerc started second, but that side of the tracks surface was much more slippy in the wet conditions, and he lost two places at the start. Red Bull ran in 1st and 2nd and controlled the race from there. The Ferrari was suffering with tyre graining and not in any position to challenge.

Ferrari then tried to rescue the point for Fastest lap by bringing in Leclerc for soft tyres. It seemed a bit early to do so, 14 or so laps to go, and Red Bull would have plenty of time to do their own stop to respond. Before that was needed, Leclerc made a mistake while trying to get within DRS range of Perez and spun, dropping to 9th before recovering to finish 6th.

Under Pressure

Ferrari were under pressure and Leclerc dropped it. Sainz made his mistake in qualifying and while he made a good recovery and his retirement was not his fault, the whole weekend was one of disappointment for the home team. Ferrari are not as used to being in a championship battle and perhaps this was a pointer to future problems.

Operationally, Ferrari are not the best, while Red Bull are used to fighting at the front. Carlos Sainz has now made two mistakes in the last two race weekends, and he still is not happy in the car. The pressure will only mount until he starts delivering faultless weekends.

Reliability Issues Over For Red Bull?

Red Bull have suffered with poor reliability. So, having a trouble-free weekend in Italy was very encouraging. It looks like their fuel pick up problems have been fixed. They have also been able to put, new, lighter parts on the car and they have moved forward. They can now press on with improving the car rather than fix problems.

Red Bull are regarded as one of, if not the best, in season developers and it will be interesting to see how the big two get on with the bigger upgrades coming soon. Perez is much more comfortable with the characteristics of the 2022 car, Max not so much, but he is getting there. The momentum has swung back to Red Bull, who are now just eleven points behind Ferrari.

Hamilton Struggles Continue

Mercedes dropped to third place after a poor race weekend in Italy. It was Lewis Hamilton who struggled the most, and he was very much second best to George Russell. Already the stories are doing the rounds that he will retire and so on. That is up to him, but his motivation is being tested by having a poor car, and a new teammate who is 21 points ahead and who has beaten him at the last three races.

Mercedes are 57 points behind Ferrari, and they are not in the running for either title. The porpoising problems have not been dealt with and until they are, the car is not competitive. Russell is having the same problems, but he is getting more out of the car.

He knows the car is well short of where it should be, but he has been driving a shitbox Williams for the last three years, scoring just 19 points. He has already scored 49 this season and is the only driver to finish in the top 5 in all four races. His stock is rising and his is the only good news story at Mercedes.

Right Direction

McLaren are heading in the right direction after a poor start to the season in Bahrain. Norris has scored 35 points in the last three race weekends, and while Ricciardo has not yet clicked in the races, his qualifying pace has been much improved. They look like getting close to challenging Mercedes for third place so long as Mercedes continue to struggle with porpoising. Norris continues to develop and improve, but Ricciardo needs to cut out mistakes and start delivering the points the car is capable of.

Alfa Reliability Problems

Alfa Romeo were blighted by poor reliability in testing and in the earlier races. But, given a trouble-free weekend, Bottas is showing the pace to be contending for a top 6 finish. He is just 4 points behind his old teammate, Lewis Hamilton. His tail is up, and motivation is good.

Zhou has been very consistent in qualifying, but an average of 14th is too far off Bottas for comfort. His race results have seen him score just one point, but he has finished all four. With a better grid position, he can start scoring more points. The car is decent and not suffering with the overweight problems of most others.

Alpine Underachieving

Alpine are only in 6th place and that isn’t good enough. The car is showing decent pace, Alonso has made Q3 in each qualifying session, but only scored two points, while Ocon has been much better in the races, scoring in three and only missing out by a place in Italy, despite going out in Q1 (he picked up a penalty which dropped him to 14th). They have the potential to do better.

Ocon has done well on the two street circuits so far and it will be interesting to see if he continues that trend. He has tended to perform well on street tracks and confined, barrier lined tracks. Only Alonso had the new Alpine floor at Imola and Ocon should have the new upgrade as well this weekend.

Poor Qualifying Pace

Alpha Tauri is not getting the most out of their car so far. They have had a points finish in all four races, which shows potential, but their qualifying pace is poor. Without the retirements of cars ahead of them, Alpha Tauri would be further behind.

Haas are doing OK, at least with Magnussen. He has scored all their points and Schumacher is being made to look very ordinary by a driver who is not yet race fit. So long as Magnussen can qualify in the top 10, he can pick up minor points. However, with improved reliability from the other teams, that will become harder. Even under the cost cap conditions, Haas are not a team that have the capability to develop the car to a great extent. Things may gradually get tougher for them.

Aston Martin Need Rain

Aston Martin moved off the bottom of the table, thanks to a double points finish in the wet race in Italy. Both their drivers are good in those conditions and a wet race hide the cars weaknesses. The team say that they have made no progress and Italy was just a nice bonus. They will be praying for more rain, and there is a chance they could get some.

Williams is relying on Alex Albon to carry their hopes and he is doing as well as possible, but the car isn’t good, and Latifi is too slow and makes too many mistakes. He has had the time to show what he has got, but been put in the shade by Russell, and now Albon.

2022 Miami GP: New Track Hard To Predict

It is hard to be too confident when coming to a brand new track that has not seen any racing, never mind F1. The circuit looks fast, power sensitive with a fiddly section just to make set up more difficult. It is a level playing field in terms of track form as nobody has driven it. That may improve the relative chances of the less experienced drivers, but having a good, reliable car is the best weapon.

Calling who it will suit in terms of the big two is very hard. Red Bull look to be getting their act together after a poor start. Reliability was their problem and that seems to be less of a worry now. Ferrari need to have the straight-line speed to compete with Red Bull on this lay out and it remains to be seen if their new low downforce package is going to be enough. That said, they were not far off Red Bull at the very fast Jeddah circuit, and suspect there be nothing between them.

Mercedes is trialling some new ideas to address their massive porpoising problems. They say they have ‘several ideas’ which does suggest that they are not yet sure which ones will work and this may be a learning weekend.

Alpine Of Interest

Alpine are interesting. They haven’t got the most out of the car so far. Alonso is better in qualifying, but Ocon the safe pair of hands in the races. The Frenchman is a bit underrated in my opinion and he has shown good form on these kinds of tracks in the past. If the new floor is an improvement, he should be sniffing around the top 6 again.

McLaren are improving after a poor start to the season, but it was only really Bahrain where they floundered. The car doesn’t suffer with the same sort of porpoising issues as many others and they seem to like the fast, flowing tracks. Norris is still in the ascendancy and can take his chances, as he did in Imola.

After that you have a large group of drivers who can score points, but there are just ten spots up for grabs.

Not Much Margin For Error

With a new track we have no idea of the attrition rates. It is lined by barriers but there are some large run-off areas, so it is not like Jeddah or Baku in that respect, but there are tighter sectors where there is not much room for errors.

Max Verstappen is the 2.20 favourite to win, Charles Leclerc 2.50 with Sainz and Perez both 13.00. It is hard to see outside of those three, and as things stand, there is no need to be diving in now before we get a flavour of the track.

The only bet I think is just about worth making at this early stage is for Esteban Ocon to finish in the top 6 at the 2022 Miami GP. His form figures so far are 7/6/7/14. He has had two good results on the Jeddah and Albert Park circuits which look a reasonable form guide for this weekend and while his qualifying results have not been great, with the new floor expected to be on his car, he could be in better shape this weekend. He likes his street circuits and is worth a modest bet ante post.

2022 Miami GP Tip: 1 point Esteban Ocon to finish in the top 6 @ 4.50 with BET365, Skybet, Betfair, Betvictor

Obviously, this is a race weekend where most betting will be on race day, but we may have something for qualifying on Saturday.

-JamesPunt