2022 Monaco GP Raceday Update and Tips – JP
2022 Monaco GP Raceday Update
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2022 Monaco GP Raceday Update:
The first thing to try and address ahead of today’s race is the weather forecast. The many TV pundits have been talking up the chances of rain. As high as 80% from one but beware the TV presenters F1 weather forecasts. They know that the viewers love a wet race, especially somewhere like Monaco. It would be chaotic, full of crashes and a bit of a lottery. None of that ‘watch the start and then go and mow the lawn’, if we have a wet race.
The actual latest forecast is less exciting, but still a pain in the bum. A 54% chance of rain, or more specifically, thunderstorms, for the start of the race and staying at that level for the entire race. Drawing on my A-Level Geography, it looks like any rain/T’storms are coming from inland. The temperature rises, the hot air rises, condenses, the clouds build and eventually, may drop their moist cargo on the ground below.
Will It Be Wet?
If we are looking at Monaco from the sea, you will see the cliffs rising in the background. The clouds are building from behind those cliffs. The question is, will they drift out to sea and across Monaco town in the process?
We have seen the same thing here before. A forecast threatening rain, the clouds building and big grey blobs hovering above those cliffs, maybe a few spots falling, but it never quite arrives. If it was weather coming in from the sea, then it is easier to say if it will be wet, but we are left with the potential for rain, but no guarantee.
That makes punting on the race extra risky.
A dry Monaco GP tends to be predictable. Overtaking is all but impossible and once through the first corner, the drivers run in single file until the pit stops throw up a strategic chance to make up a place or two. Otherwise, any opportunities to move up the order largely depend on DNF’s.
Rain Can Cause Mayhem
Throw in rain however, and things can go tits up. More accidents are inevitable, more DNF’s and it can end up as a game of last man standing. The 1996 Monaco GP was a case in point. It rained heavily for the first time in the weekend before the race and when they got under way, it was a destruction Derby. By Lap 31 there were only 11 cars left running.
The track was drying, drivers won and lost places when changing to slicks, cars then started breaking down with the kind of failures you used to get in the old days. Eventually, they reached the 2 hour limit well before completing a race distance. They were just 7 cars running by this stage, but a last lap pile up retired a further three cars. Only three were still running at the chequered flag as Frentzen retired into the pits, safe that he had secured 4th place, leaving 301.00 shot Olivier Panis to win his one and only GP.
2016
Obviously, that is at the extreme end of the scale. Most recently, we had a wet race here in 2016. In the modern, turbo hybrid era.
That race was started behind the safety car after rain had fallen before the start. All cars were on full wets and the race started in earnest on lap seven when the safety car was brought in. Ricciardo was on pole, and he led the race and he built up a good lead. Drivers at the back started to pit for inters, the leaders holding back.
By Lap 21, it was only Ricciardo and Hamilton who had not stopped for inters, running 1st and 2nd. Ricciardo pitted, Hamilton opted to stay out until the track was drier. He then when straight from worn full wets, to slicks on lap 31. Ricciardo also went for slicks on the next lap, only to pull into the pits to find his crew wondering what the f**k he was doing there. Race over.
We had money on Ricciardo to win the race and he had been the best car/driver combo all weekend. A communication error cost him, and us, the win.
Unusual Result
Overall, the race saw Hamilton winning from third on the grid, which is very unusual here. There were seven DNF’s, but all from drivers well down the grid, and only two cars from outside the top ten on the grid, finished in the points. Perez finished on the podium from seventh on the grid. Rosberg went from second to seventh, blaming the cars handling after the safety car start. The rain did mix things up, but not in a 1996 way. The pole sitter would have won, but for a problem with a pitstop. That can happen anywhere, anytime.
We are left looking at a weather forecast which says we may have game changing potential rain, but it could be dry, in which case we are likely to have a processional race and the pole sitter winning.
For what is worth, my money would be on a dry race. The weather for this morning’s races has been dry, cooler, but mostly sunny and pleasant. My guess is that the clouds will tease us but fail to deliver any real juice. With just over an hour before the start of the race, the very latest forecast is for some light rain in the last 15 minutes or so of the race. I still wouldn’t bet on it.
2022 Monaco GP Raceday Selections
We backed Leclerc for pole position which has paid out and we have also backed him at 2.10 for the race. He is now the 1.44 favourite. It has gone to plan so far. He now just has to get it home and history suggests that is what will happen. Perhaps the biggest threat is the car breaking down, just as it did in Spain, costing us a pay-out.
Ferrari have a problem with their power units and already this weekend, Schumacher and Bottas have had problems with their Ferrari power units and there is a question mark over all the cars with the Ferrari units. This is not a power sensitive track, and the engines are not being thrashed but there is still a risk of failure.
However, there is not a lot we can do. We have the best seat in the house and must just hope that everything works as it should for the race.
Podium Fight
The other drivers looking for a podium finish are Sainz, starting from second, Perez in third and Verstappen in fourth. It is likely that the rest would need something unusual to happen to find themselves getting some Champagne at the end of the race. A downpour may be sufficient, but I’m saying it’s a dry race. In a dry race, it is rare to see a surprise on the Monaco podium. Norris made it from 5th last year, but that was helped by pole sitter Leclerc not starting the race and Bottas retiring when Mercedes could not get one of his tyres off the car in the pits. You can’t bank on things like that.
That said, Norris is the driver most likely to pick up any lucky scraps. He is feeling better, but still not 100% fit and that is a worry on a track were concentration must be perfect for the whole race. Alonso crashed yesterday and blamed it on a momentary loss of concentration, a bit of a senior moment, but an example of why you cannot switch off for a second. He is 4.50 to finish on the podium but is likely to need a couple of DNF’s ahead of him.
Perez An Interesting Price
It is interesting to see that Perez is 2.20 to finish on the podium, despite starting third. His teammate, Max Verstappen, is 1.60, despite starting fourth. Clearly the bookies expect team orders to come into effect, as they did in Spain. Perez was not happy with that and may not be willing to submit once again. He has also been the fastest Red Bull this weekend. Verstappen just hasn’t got his car the way he needs it.
Will Red Bull want to put their fastest car behind Verstappen just to get a few more points for Max? Such a move would demotivate Perez for the rest of what is a long season. He would be better employed putting as much pressure on the two Ferraris ahead and maximising team points. Verstappen just doesn’t seem to have the pace make any great impression. It is an interesting situation. I am tempted by the 2.20 for a Perez podium, but the value is marginal.
On any normal circuit, we would be looking down the grid for drivers that are out of position in a fast car. However, on a track were making up places on the track is very difficult, there isn’t much point.
Gasly Unlikely To Score
Pierre Gasly had the pace to be fighting for 5th place on the grid with Norris, but his team didn’t do a great job in Q1 after the very unnecessary red flag, and he ran out of time to do a flying lap. He starts seventeenth and faces a long race staring at slower car’s rear wings. He can make up some places around any pitstops, but without a lot of DNF’s he will be unlikely to score points.
Of the drivers outside the top 10 on the grid, those starting closest to the points are most likely to finish in them. Amazing analysis. In low attrition races, the driver in 11th and 13th have scored in two of the three races with two or fewer DNF’s in the turbo hybrid era.
On today’s grid, that’s Tsunoda and Magnussen. Tsunoda has very limited track experience, finishing 16th last year, while Magnussen has finished 10th twice. Hardly a specialist but he knows the ropes. Both drivers have been there abouts in terms of the top 10 in practice, so the equipment is OK. They just need a good start of some attrition ahead of them.
Yuki Tsunoda has three points finishes in 2022 from six races, none from inside the top 10 on the grid and with low attrition. He isn’t fashionable which means the value tends to be better. His lack of track experience is a worry, he never even raced in junior formula here, but he is doing OK this season and his car has decent qualities for this track.
2022 Monaco GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Yuki Tsunoda to finish in the points @ 2.10 with Hills, BET365, Pokerstars
The fastest Laps this year have gone to Leclerc x3, Verstappen x2 and Perez x1. That means the fastest lap setter has started 1st, 2nd or 3rd in five of the six races. It makes sense, they are the faster cars. Perez bucked the trend by starting 5th in Spain.
The fastest lap setter in Monaco has tended to buck that trend. In the last ten years only three fastest laps have come from the top 3 (all from 3rd) on the grid. Two have come from back row starters and seven from 4th or lower.
Reluctant To Pit
It may be that the leaders, or indeed anyone running in the points, at Monaco are reluctant to pit for fresh tyres just to set the fastest lap. Getting the extra point is a recent phenomenon, but it is rare that a driver is running away with a big lead and has a free stop in their back pocket.
This track just has that feel of an outlier of a venue that doesn’t mean the fastest car, the Ferrari this weekend, will get the fastest lap. Somebody on the right tyres later in the race with a bit of clear track could pop up with the FL.
Of the front runners, Perez makes some appeal. In the last ten years, the driver starting 3rd has set fastest lap three times. Perez set the FL last time out in Spain (he was 3rd quickest in the third sector in the race) and he has set the fastest lap here twice before, in 2017 and 2012. He has been right on the pace all weekend and must have a decent claim.
2022 Monaco GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Sergio Perez to set the fastest lap @ 8.50 with Hills, Betvictor, Unibet
For someone a bit more random, why not Lewis Hamilton? He was quickest through sector three in Barcelona, a good guide for this track, and the Mercedes has tended to be a better race car than qualifier. He has two fastest laps to his credit here and the cards might fall right for him, and a modest punt is allowable on this track.
2022 Monaco GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Lewis Hamilton to set the fastest lap @ 34.00 generally available
Sebastian Vettel showed that he is something of a track specialist, qualifying 9th in the Aston Martin, a car not worthy of such heights. Monaco is more of a driver’s track, and he can claim the credit for that one, especially with Stroll back in a more realistic 18th. If he can make his car wide and have clean stops, he can keep himself in the points and that should be enough to win Ladbrokes Group 2. He is up against Ocon, Bottas and Tsunoda, and while it won’t be easy, he makes enough appeal at the odds.
