2022 Saudi Arabian GP Preview

What can we learn from the first race of the season ahead of the 2022 Saudi Arabian GP?

That Ferrari have a fully competitive car, and also that Red Bull have a competitive car, but a double retirement made that irrelevant. Mercedes do not have a competitive car and are some way from the front two teams. It was also interesting that the Mercedes customer cars were really off the pace. Is there a problem with the power unit, or the fuel/power unit combination? Mercedes work hand in hand with Petronas but their customers use different fuel suppliers. Could it be that their new E10 fuels are not working as well as the Mercedes – Petronas combination?

Ferrari Power Unit Performing

Ferrari power unit customers, on the other hand, will be pleased. Haas scored a fifth place with Magnussen and just missed out on a double points finish with Schumacher finishing 11th. Alfa Romeo scored a double points finish and while the retirement of the two Red Bulls flattered the midfielders, Bottas and Magnussen both qualified in the top 7, so the results were not flukes. Given a better start, Bottas thought he would have been fighting for fourth.

Alpine had a double points finish but they look very much like last year’s midfield standing. Able to pick up minor points without threatening the podium on merit. The same applies to Alpha Tauri. Both can pick up the minor places and get lucky on occasions.

Alarm Bells At McLaren

Alarm bells will be ringing at McLaren. Ricciardo had excuses with a lack of testing and not being fully fit, but they were poor over a single lap and worse in the race. Aston Martin, like McLaren and Williams, seem underpowered. The Aston seems to be giving up downforce to avoid the severe porpoising which affected them in testing. The three UK based Mercedes customer teams were hard to separate. That might be something of an improvement for Williams, but Aston Martin and McLaren will be worried.

As for ‘the show,’ was I alone in thinking……It didn’t seem a lot different to me. We had a good, if brief, scrap between Leclerc and Verstappen and there was other overtakes, but it seemed to be to be mostly the usual DRS assisted passes. Ross Brawn was singing the praises of the new regulations, saying they have transformed the sport for the better. My jury is still out on that one.

Of course, all that comes with a proviso. It was just one race on one particular track, at night, in warmish conditions.

2022 Saudi Arabian GP

For this weekend’s race, we move to another night race, but on a very different circuit. The Saudi Arabian track has only hosted the one race, just a few months ago, as the penultimate race of the 2021 season. It is the fastest street circuit in the world and quite a different challenge to the more traditional Bahrain circuit. It is the second longest lap in the calendar, and it got mixed reviews after its debut last year.

Parts of the track were clearly dangerous with a lack of visibility for drivers of what was ahead of them whilst travelling flat out. As a result, some changes have been made to improve sight lines and the final corner has been widened. How far that will go to improve things remains to be seen. The chicane at the end of the start/finish straight remains and seems designed to cause controversy and accidents. There were five retirements in last year’s race and unusually, all were caused by accidents. The race featured two red flags, which does suggest that a redesign is the least that is needed.

No Room For Errors

The fact that the track is largely lined by barriers means that mistakes are heavily punished, as is the case ant any street track, but this one is very fast. It is much like the Baku circuit in terms of inviting a chaotic race.

The track is a power circuit and straight-line performance is rewarded. This might mean more woe for the Mercedes customer teams but will have the Ferrari powered cars licking their lips.

After a rocket attack on Jeddah earlier in the week, there are some concerns that the race may have to be cancelled, but there are no plans to at the moment, so fingers crossed.

2022 Saudi Arabian GP: Teams and Prospects

Ferrari

A 1-2 finish last weekend was a great start for our ante post bet on the Constructors Championship and conformed their promise in testing. Leclerc was the better of the two drivers. Sainz said he was never happy in the car, but he still qualified third and finished second. It was a typical Sainz performance, getting the best result possible on a track on which he has never enjoyed. He said it was his most difficult race ever and clearly, he wasn’t happy at all.

It was a flawless performance by the whole team and they are the ones to beat, here and perhaps for the rest of the season. The new power unit has lived up to expectations. The Ferraris were not the fastest down the straight, but they have better traction and acceleration which will be a real asset on some tracks. However, this may not be one of them.

Red Bull

The car is competitive in terms of pace, although, the Ferrari was the faster car in Bahrain. For both cars to retire with the same problem was a shock. There were no hints of anything like it in testing and we have become used to these modern F1 cars running like clockwork. Their prospects for this weekend obviously depend on making sure that the fuel pump problem will not reappear.

It is not yet clear what part of the fuel pump system failed, or if indeed it was the problem. Much of fuel pump system is made up of standard parts used in all the cars. There had been a few problems in testing with Haas and Ferrari. The manufactures put in ‘countermeasures’ but there was some concern before the race and the FIA allowed an extra hour for the teams to inspect their fuel primer pump before the cars being put away for the night. No problems were said to have been found.

Reliability Issues

However, it wasn’t just the fuel pump with which Verstappen had struggled with. Firstly, it was his brakes overheating and forcing him to take it easy with braking which cost him time. Then his steering developed a problem after the car was dropped off the jack during a pit stop. Bending a track rod. The final straw was the fuel pump packing up and ending his race. It is hard to judge if, without those problems, Verstappen would have been able to beat the Ferraris, but clearly, he was fighting with one arm behind his back.

On the positive side, the Red Bull is competitive. Ferrari say it is still the car to beat and they may be right. Verstappen and Perez were the fastest at the end of the long straight and that bodes well for this weekend.

Mercedes

Finished third and fourth having qualified fifth and ninth. Their finishing positions reflected the two Red Bulls retiring. But for that, fifth, and a distant fifth, was their best possible placing. Mercedes is a long way off the front two teams, for the time being at least. It is hard to see how they are going to have closed the gap in a week, and their problems do not look easily fixed. Toto Wolff said part of the problem was a lack of parts and that they were running a larger rear wing than was ideal in Bahrain. A sign that the cost cap is biting? They will need a smaller wing for this track otherwise they will be even further off the pace.

Haas

Sitting third in the constructor’s championship and while they inherited two places thanks to Red Bulls demise, they do seem to have a car that is going to be fighting for places on the fourth row and certainly, more points are there for the taking this weekend. Other teams are already grumbling about their links to Ferrari, but they are not doing anything wrong.

Kevin Magnussen was straight back on the pace after a year out racing in other categories and he drove a solid, sensible race to finish 5th. Mick Schumacher was hit by Ocon on the first lap which spun him 360 degrees and the car was not quite right after that. Double points finishes are back on the menu at Haas.

Alfa Romeo

Like Haas, Alfa Romeo merited their points on Sunday. Bottas qualified an excellent 6th and finished there as well, after a dreadful start it must be said. Bottas says his car suffers from bad wheelspin off the line ‘about 50% of the time’. Zhou suffered the same problem and he lost four places by the first corner. The team are working on a fix, but it is something to bear in mind, especially on track where overtaking is harder. After a troubled pre-season, Alfa Romeo performed well.

For Zhou to get a points finish on debut was a surprise but he will be all the better for it. However, like Tsunoda last year, he may find these next races harder. He had a had lots of miles testing in Bahrain, so was well prepared, but this weekend he gets just the three free practice sessions. Alfa should be getting at least one car home in the points, but that start line issue is a concern.

Alpine

A double points finish for Alpine will have been welcomed, but they looked every bit a midfield team. They are hoping to finish the season in fifth place, but with the Ferrari powered cars now much more competitive, that may not be easy. Alonso qualified 8th, which was OK, but his race wasn’t great, hurting his tyres and he was bettered by Ocon who qualified 11th but finished seventh.

They will be there or thereabouts in the fight for more points but there is nothing to get too excited about. Alonso raced with their updated Ferrari style side pod all weekend, while Ocon had to use the original spec side pods after his came off the car in FP1. Presumably both will have the new parts this weekend.

Alpha Tauri

It was a bittersweet race for Alpha Tauri who had got Gasly into Q3 by a whisker. He was going well enough in the race, running 8th, before he lost power and his car burst into flames. Tsunoda had problems with his car in qualifying and started from 16th but he drove a good race to finish an unexpected 8th. The car is OK, but maybe not as competitive as 2021. More points are possible this weekend, especially if it is a race of attrition.

Aston Martin

A pointless first race and the pressure is on. They were not helped by having to draft in Nico Hulkenberg at very short notice to cover for the covid infected Vettel. No doubt Vettel was sitting at home, glad it was Hulkenberg trying to drag a poor car round the track, and not him.

Their car is one of the worst for porpoising and it looks like to get rid of that, they are running the car high and losing downforce and performance as a result, 0.5 seconds per lap according to the team. This year’s Mercedes power unit may not be the asset it has been for the last few years and on a power track with lots of straights, this should be another difficult weekend.

Overweight

The car is said to be overweight and lacking downforce. If the Mercedes power unit is underperforming, this car doesn’t have much going for it. Rumours are that there is trouble within the team. Owner Lawrence Stroll has become involved in the technical and design side of things and this was the reason why Otmar Szafnauer left the team.

As of Thursday morning, Vettel had still not returned a negative Covid test (let’s face it, he’d be better off staying at home than driving this dog), which he needs before he can make the flight to Jeddah. Hulkenberg has travelled to Saudi and remains on standby.

Williams

Albon succeeded in making Latifi look very ordinary. The Canadian is into his third year now but he was out qualified and out raced by Albon. The car looks uncompetitive and again the Mercedes power unit is no longer the class of the field. They do not look ready to score points on merit.

McLaren

It was a disastrous weekend for McLaren. Never in the top 10 in any session and they qualified 13th and 18th, finishing 14th and 15th. The car is very poor in slow corners and the fact that this Saudi track is all about straight line performance and only has four slow corners may offer them a chance to bounce back.

However, Lando Norris was very negative about where the team are at the moment, saying that they ‘are a long way off’ and that they are going to have to start again from scratch. He says the car is lacking downforce which makes working the tyres harder and then there is a lack of power from the Mercedes power units. They may perform better here than Bahrain, but it is hard to see them being competitive.

Brake cooling is a problem for everyone with the new regulations but McLaren are seriously struggling. An interim fix was put in place after testing but it was not a great success.

2022 Saudi Arabian GP: Summary

The fact that this track is a bit of an outlier in terms of its layout may mean that we see a different pecking order this weekend. The top two teams will be Red Bull and Ferrari. Both are good on the straights, just in different parts. I suspect the lay out will favour Red Bull. They were the fastest car at the end of the straight. Their top end speed was greater than the Ferrari and fact that there are a lot of long, flat-out sections here, should play to their strengths.

Of course, there is a question mark over their double retirement in Bahrain. If it is not caused by a part they manufacture, can the supplier that does find a fix in a week? Is it a problem that will reappear, or indeed affect other cars? I still have Verstappen as the favourite, but the fuel pump problem, if it was the fuel pump, is a concern, as was the fact that they were suffering with overheating brakes in Bahrain. Again, the track layout here, with fewer braking areas, should help.

Pecking Order

Given better reliability the pecking order should be Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes filling the front three rows in that order. Perez may be a weak link in qualifying which may allow for the two Ferrari drivers being the meat in a Red Bull sandwich.

The race here last year was a bit of a bum fight with crashes, collisions, and two re-starts. Yellow flags are very likely and red flags a strong possibility. These sorts of races can throw up surprises but with just the one race held here before, and the track having been tweaked since last November, it is hard to draw a clear picture.

One part of the picture that is clear, is that the Mercedes powered cars, especially the customer teams, are likely to be out of the frame in terms of performance. Mercedes is saying they are not sure yet if the power unit is less competitive, but we should remember that this is the first Mercedes PU not built under the guidance of Andy Cowell, who left Mercedes’ engine division to join Red Bull Power trains, taking other staff with him. A coincidence?

This looks to be a race where Ferrari power will be important, and the Mercedes powered cars will be disadvantaged. Red Bull and Alpha have a competitive power unit and even the Renault one is ahead of Mercedes.

2022 Saudi Arabian GP: Pole Position

Saudi Arabian was nearly the scene of one of Max Verstappen’s greatest qualifying laps. Hamilton had set a good pole time and Verstappen had one more lap to beat it. He was purple in both the two first sectors and absolutely flying before he went into the last corner too fast and went wide out of it, clipping the wall and breaking his rear suspension. He was in the zone and could have afforded to ease off a bit in the final sector, but he was just going flat out. I dare say he has learned that lesson.

Reliability problems are less likely in qualifying and if, as I expect, the track is Red Bull friendly, Verstappen may be hard to keep off pole position. He even has a bit more room in the final corner this year.

2022 Saudi Arabian GP Tip: 2 points Max Verstappen to be fastest qualifier @ 3.00 with SpreadEx

2022 Saudi Arabian GP: Race Betting

This is riskier given the question mark over the Red Bull fuel pick up problems last week.

2022 Saudi Arabian GP Tip: 1 point Max Verstappen to win the Saudi Arabian GP @ 2.63 with SpreadEx

Top 6 betting looks to be between the big three teams and that would have been the case last week but for the late demise of the two Red Bulls. Magnussen and Bottas are the most likely to be sniffing about should any of the top six have problems this Sunday. If Bottas has another poor start, that puts KMag in the best position, but he is just 2.75 to do so.

We only have last year’s race as a guide. Hamilton won from pole position, the top three on the grid finished as the top three in the race, although Bottas had to pass Ocon on the last lap for third place. Only two drivers from outside the top 10 on the grid finished in the points, despite the chaos of two red flags.

There really isn’t enough to go on in terms of track form or this season’s form to be playing in the side markets just yet. The bookies are wise as to who to expect in the points etc. I feel this is a track that could throw up a surprise. Maybe another crash fest, but involving cars further up the running order. It nearly happened last year when Hamilton and Verstappen had a collision, but both survived to race on to a 1-2 finish. It could easily have been a win for Bottas, with Ocon second and Ricciardo third. We can revisit this kind of scenario in Sunday’s update.

-JamesPunt