2022 Saudi Arabian GP Raceday Update and Tips – JP
2022 Saudi Arabian GP Raceday Update
It is almost time for the Saudi GP. In just a couple of hours it’ll be go, go, go and if you are having a bet, James Punt has got you covered. You can check out his outright preview here. His 2022 Saudi Arabian GP Raceday update is below.
Raceday Update
A slightly different grid than I was expecting. There is a Red Bull on pole position, but not the right one. Sergio Perez just got better, session by session, and won pole by a whisker from the Ferraris of Leclerc and Sainz, and teammate Verstappen in fourth. Ocon was an excellent fifth with the Mercedes of Russell in sixth. Alonso was second best to Ocon and starts seventh alongside Bottas in eighth. Gasly and Magnussen bring up the top ten.
The other big surprise is that Hamilton qualified back in sixteenth place. He will start from fourteenth after Ricciardo received a three-place penalty and Mick Schumacher withdrew from the race after his massive smash destroyed his car.
Hamilton was back there simply due to a lack of pace. Russell put his Merc on the third row, but Hamilton just had no answers. There could be a hidden problem with his car, and he may yet decide to start from the pits and take the chance of having his mechanics rebuild the car to find any problem.
Let’s look and all the teams and their prospects on race day.
Red Bull
A bittersweet qualifying for Red Bull. They have pole position, but just not with the ‘right’ driver. Perez does have form on high-speed street circuits and maybe I missed a trick here, but he had been second best to Verstappen in the three free practice sessions, so it was a surprise. Perez says that the car was set up with the race in mind, sacrificing qualifying pace for race pace.
The Red Bull does seem to have the straight-line performance advantage which will be very useful on this track, both for attacking and defending. Perez was the fastest through the speed trap, by 4 kph over Verstappen and comfortably ahead of everyone else. Alpha Tauri was third and fourth top speed wise, after the Bulls, so the Honda PU seems to be the one to have here, if it doesn’t break.
Reliability Worries
Reliability is a concern. Both cars retired in Bahrain, and this will be the acid test as to whether the team’s fixes have worked. It is not just Red Bull who have had issues with the RBPT. Sister team Alpha Tauri have had multiple power unit problems this weekend.
Red Bull’s long run pace in FP2 was good but with the two Ferraris not doing long runs on the medium in FP2 after both hit the wall, their pace is harder to call.
At this early stage of the season, Perez is unlikely to be told to by his team to hand first place to Verstappen, should the two be running 1-2, and he is a definite contender. Verstappen is the defacto number 1 and the team might find a way of using strategy to switch them during the race.
Ferrari
Ferrari continue to be very consistent, always there or thereabout. Leclerc was just 0.025 slower than Perez in qualifying, but their long run pace is harder to gauge. They did longer runs in FP3, but the conditions were very different to those in the evening.
Leclerc has only had one brush with the walls this weekend, but he does have form for hitting them hard at Monaco and Baku, so he will need to weigh up the risks and rewards this afternoon. Sainz continues to be a little less comfortable in the car, but Mr. Consistency is likely to get the most he can from the Ferrari.
The Ferrari is very quick in sector one and that could make for an interesting start. I get the feeling that Perez will just be too fast for everyone in the flat-out sections here, but if Ferrari can get ahead at the start, they can make it harder.
Mercedes
Russell put his Merc on the third row, which is about where it should be, but Hamilton took a different set up and ended up with a very loose rear end. The car is overweight, draggy, prone to bad porpoising and seemingly lacking power. They are not able to compete for race wins at this moment in time. They were flattered by the double retirement of the two Red Bulls last weekend and on this track, with the very high chance of multiple yellow flags and likely red flags, it is not beyond belief that they could get lucky again.
We are expecting a charge through the field by Hamilton but unless they take the pain of starting from the pit lane after changing the setup of his car, he doesn’t have the pace to make a huge difference. He needs a big slice of luck again, and at least this track could give him some assistance.
Alpine
Alpine are not the easiest to predict, but they will be pleased to be ‘best of the rest’ with Ocon being bettered by just the Red Bulls and Ferraris. However, they do not have a big advantage in the midfield battle, with just under 0.2 seconds covering fifth to ninth. He has track position but will have to be faultless to finish top 6.
We will see how Alonso gets on with his tyres after he suffered with greater degradation than Ocon in Bahrain last weekend. Ocon was very close to a podium finish here last year and he says he is aiming to go one better today. I doubt he has the pace to do so on merit, but with this racetrack seemingly designed to cause yellow flags, safety cars, red flags and restarts, he could get lucky, or indeed unlucky.
Alfa Romeo
Bottas starts eighth and Zhou in twelfth. The Alfa is clearly competitive in the midfield and a rejuvenated Bottas is enjoying his new role as team number 1. He will be looking to beat the Mercedes of Russell ahead of him, it is the cars performance off the line which is a concern. Both cars dropped a lot of places at the start last week with excessive wheel spin.
Their straight-line pace is good, if some way off Red Bull. Bottas could have a great day so long as his start is good, and he gets his fair share of luck in what is likely to be a chaotic race. Zhou is well placed to pick up more points from his sixth row start but again, his start is key, and the team are worried that there is no quick fix for the problem.
Alpha Tauri
Their two cars seemed to spend more time in the garage than on the track so far this weekend. It is quick when it runs, but it is hard to see them getting both cars home, and a double DNF would be no surprise.
Haas
Looked capable of getting two cars into Q3 at one point before Schumacher’s huge crash in Q2. He is OK but wisely has withdrawn from the race and it is down to Magnussen to try and score points from his tenth place on the grid. Like Alpha Tauri, reliability is a concern for Haas and Magnussen did well to reach Q3 with not a lot of running in practice. Good straight-line performance gives Magnussen a decent chance of more points, if the car keeps going.
McLaren
As expected, the layout of this track is sparing the blushes of McLaren. We haven’t seen any overheating brakes, but the car is porpoising more here than in Bahrain. Norris starts eleventh and is close enough to the points paying places to think he can do it and in a chaotic race, if he is still running at the end, you never know. Ricciardo nearly landed our 3.60 bet to out qualify Norris, but he was just over a tenth off. He then received a 3-place grid penalty for blocking Ocon in Q2. The car is not competitive, it is just that its weaknesses are not so obvious here. Norris may get his first points but may need a bit of luck.
Aston Martin
Continues to struggle. The car is a poor one with few redeeming features. Stroll isn’t a great pilot, he’s not as bad as many make out, but he is not able to drag a poor car to places it doesn’t deserve to be. Hulkenberg is just a standby driver with not much time in the car to be fully ready. They don’t need luck; they need a miracle.
Williams
Organizationally, the team are heading in the right direction, but the car is not good, and the Mercedes PU is not the advantage it has been in the past.
2022 Saudi Arabian GP Raceday Strategy
The teams will all have their strategies planned, but they will know that this race is unlikely to run to a script. Luck will play a big part. Some drivers will get lucky with the likely safety car deployments, and this is a race which will be about quick thinking and being able to react to threats and opportunities.
We only have last year’s race as a guide and despite all the chaos, the top three on the grid finished in the top three. There were five retirements but only two cars from outside the top 10 finished in the points, Sainz finished eighth from fifteenth on the grid and Ricciardo fifth from eleventh. It was the cars outside the top ten that seemed to lose out in terms of having accidents and perhaps track position does carry a fair amount of weight today.
One Stop Favoured
A one stop strategy is said to be the best, with drivers starting on the medium and switching to the hard. With the best will in the world, it is hard to see the race having just one stop. With safety cars opening up opportunities to get a cheap stop for fresh tyres, any strategy here is likely to be ruined by events. Any car stopping on track is a likely safety car deployment and a high speed crash a red flag.
Being lucky is hardly a strategy but the reality is that Lady Luck will be much in demand. That doesn’t make for a great betting proposition, unless you can predict who is going to be lucky, which, you can’t. More experienced drivers tend to be ‘luckier’ as they have the experience of these kinds of races and stay calm and wait for the next opportunity to present itself. Having a quick car will always be rewarded and being near the front should improve a driver’s chance of being caught up in someone else’s accident.
Red Bull and Ferrari Quickest
In terms of pace, only Red Bull and Ferrari have what it takes to win on merit right now, and it is one of their cars that should win. Perez has a significant speed advantage which will make him hard to beat if he can stay out of trouble. Many of his best results have been on street circuits or quasi street circuits, having score podiums in Canada, Russia, Monaco and two podiums and a win in Azerbaijan.
Charles Leclerc is the new 2.63 favourite to win but the value looks to lie with pole sitter Perez.
2022 Saudi Arabian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Sergio Perez to win @ 3.60 generally available
We nearly had a surprise podium finish here last year with Ocon being passed by Bottas on the very last lap. The Alpine looks to be a more competitive car this year and their straight-line speed is competitive outside of the two Red Bulls. Starting from fifth, Ocon is well placed to take advantage of any lucky breaks. He has been the quicker of the two Alpines this weekend so far and while Alonso’s experience could be rewarded, Ocon has been the better driver this weekend.
2022 Saudi Arabian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Esteban Ocon to finish on the podium @ 11.00 with Boylesports
There are a few side bets of interest this weekend. The reliability of the two Alpha Tauri cars has been very poor this weekend. Tsunoda didn’t get to set a time in qualifying and he is 12.00 to be the first retirement. Perhaps the better bet is to go with Tsunoda NOT to finish the race.
2022 Saudi Arabian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Yuki Tsunoda NOT to finish the race @ 3.25 with Hills
This track has come in for well-deserved criticism for its design. Safety obviously wasn’t much of a priority, and it is too fast for a circuit lined by walls and barriers. Then there is the problem of clearing away crashed or broken-down cars. Any car that stops on track is likely to require a safety car and any big crash, a red flag in order to pick up all the debris. I would be very surprised if we don’t see at least two safety cars this afternoon.
2022 Saudi Arabian GP Raceday Tip: 2 points Safety Car to be used at least twice (virtual SC doesn’t count) @ 1.60 with Unibet
The final bet is taking a chance on the Haas’s reliability. Magnussen has plenty of straight-line speed and despite a lack of much track time, put his Haas in tenth place. He is grouped with Hamilton, Norris and Gasly in Ladbrokes Group 2. Hamilton has a car that is too slow on the straights and handling like a pig, starting 14th, Gasly is in a very unreliable and may not finish, while Norris’ McLaren is equally a slow as the Mercedes on the straights.
A lack of straight-line speed is a serious handicap on this track and Magnussen looks to be a bit of value to have the power to overcome slower cars, while Gasly will have everything crossed that his car doesn’t breakdown again.
