2022 Spanish GP Raceday Update and Tips – JP
2022 Spanish GP Raceday Update
A 2022 Spanish GP Raceday Update with a couple of bets from James Punt:
Charles Leclerc’s stunning qualifying lap has set up a race that may only appeal to the purists.
The Barcelona circuit has always been about track position and the fastest qualifier has been literally, and metaphorically, in pole position to take the race win. Will this race be any different?
What we have learned so far in 2022, is that the Ferrari/Leclerc combination is very quick over a flying lap. He has claimed three pole positions in the previous fives race weekends so far. Of those three, he has converted two poles into race wins, losing out to Verstappen in Miami last time out.
Bahrain was very close but the lay out of the track allowed him to keep his nose in front before both Red Bulls retired. In Australia, the track was much more Ferrari friendly than Red Bull friendly. In Miami, his tyres grained, and it was fairly easy for Verstappen to pass and win comfortably.
From Red Bulls viewpoint, Max Verstappen has won every race he has finished despite only started from pole position once. We appear to have one car/driver combination that is very strong over a flying lap, and another that is better over a race distance, if it doesn’t break down.
Traditional Track
This weekend we are racing over a ‘traditional’ racetrack and one that is a real test of car’s total performance. It might produce boring racing, and if you endured yesterday’s F2 race, well done and you will know what I mean, but it is a proper test of the car. It doesn’t exist to allow rich punters to ‘party down’, or sports wash a regime, it there to see how well each team’s car can perform across a range of challenges.
Fast, corners, slow corners, long corners, fast straights, and chicanes. Braking and acceleration and looking after the tyres. It is the later which may play the biggest part in today’s result.
It will be hot today and with a lot of challenging long duration corners, tyre degradation will be high, and higher for some than others. We have the usual hard, medium, and soft combination and the medium tyre is the best race tyre. The regulations mean that every driver must use at least two different compounds and that will mean running as much of the race on the medium as possible.
Soft Tyre Quickest
The soft tyre is the quickest tyre with the shortest life, ideal for qualifying but a poor race tyre. It is also very good at getting a car off the start line and around the opening lap in the fastest possible way, so the leading cars will be very wary of starting on anything but the soft, and then the battle begins. Who can make those soft tyres last the longest without them falling off the cliff?
From what we have seen so far this season, the answer is Max Verstappen and Red Bull. If that is the case, he is in a decent position to win the race. So long as Leclerc can keep his position off the start line, and that is not a given, he will have the all-important track position, on a track where passing on track is notoriously difficult. Even in a slower car, it is possible to keep the lead.
The threats to that lead are defending at the end of the long straight, an area of performance which has been Red Bulls trump card in 2022, and the pit stops.
Two Stop Strategy
With the hot track and expected high tyre degradation, two stops are going to be required and that offers up two chances for the faster car to jump a slower car holding track position. It becomes a very strategic race, but the faster car should still hold the aces. Over a race distance, that looks to be Red Bull.
In Friday’s free practice, the Red Bull was the faster car over the long runs, comfortably so, and so long as Verstappen can stay close to Leclerc, the pit stops will offer up an opportunity to take track position. Advantage Red Bull.
There is one thing that may help Ferrari and that was their soft tyre durability. Leclerc did a decent 16 lap run on the soft in FP3. That may help him keep Verstappen at bay in the first stint, and to run a long enough stint to give him a clear track to drop into at the first stop.
That will help, but he still has a long way to go against a Red Bull that is better on the medium tyre. If their improved soft tyre durability seen on Friday, transfers to the medium as well, then the pendulum swings back towards Ferrari, but the jury is still out on that.
Track Position v Pace
This race, the one at the front, between Leclerc and Verstappen is all about Leclerc’s track position vs. Verstappen’s pace. Traditionally, on this circuit, track position would prevail. But now, with these new generation of ground effect cars, the following car should be able to stay closer to the car in front, without losing lots of downforce, and hence grip and hence greater tyre wear. If that turns out to be the case, then it is advantage Verstappen, so long as his car remains reliable.
Verstappen had to abandon his final qualifying run after complaining of a loss of power. Red Bull have since said that it was not a loss of power, but a DRS failure. That is still a worry as he needs his car to be running at 100% efficiency.
The market seems to agree with the above argument and Verstappen is a best priced 2.00, with Leclerc 2.63. I had hoped that the market would give past form more weight and those odds be reversed, but while Verstappen should win in my opinion, any value is marginal, given the cars less than stellar reliability.
Value With Leclerc?
Is the value now with Leclerc? Their better longer run pace in FP3 does give them hope. Ferrari knew they had to improve tyre durability and their upgrade is an attempt to address that. The body language of the two drivers suggest that Verstappen is confident of his race pace, Leclerc no more than hopeful.
From a betting point of view, this race for the win is not a huge opportunity either way, but the pole position driver, at Barcelona, odds against? I may regret it, but if Ferrari’s FP3 long run pace does hold up, then Leclerc is back in the picture.
2022 Spanish GP Raceday Update Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to win @ 2.63 with Betfred
Is there any chance of another driver crashing the party? Based on what we have seen so far in 2022, no. Max and Charles have shared the wins so far. Perez has had a couple of second places, and Sainz one.
Carlos Sainz is still struggling with the characteristics of this year’s car and Perez is back in fifth on a track were making up places is hard. His good tyre management may pay dividends but the front two are too good and too far ahead. There is no chance of rain and outside of the first few corners, collisions should be minimal.
As usual we have a grid where the drivers nearer the back will have to try and do something different in order to make up places. On a track where overtaking is so difficult that is best done via strategy rather than the driver being racey, unless they have a clear pace advantage.
It is hard to say who on the grid is out of position and may have the potential to buck the Barcelona trend and significantly improve on their qualifying performance.
Qualifying Issues
Fernando Alonso had looked good on Friday, finishing 5th and 6th in free practice, but yesterday he was 13th in FP3 and cocked up qualifying, ending up 17th. Teammate Ocon qualified 12th and that seems to be about where the Alpine is on pace here.
Starting out of position and running a long first stint is the traditional way of making up places. We have seen the likes of Ocon and Albon getting good results by running a harder tyre and making one less stop to make up places. The problem here is that it is hard not to just get stuck in traffic and not being able to use any pace advantage to max out the strategy.
If, for example, Ocon decided to start on the hard tyre, he would likely lose places on the opening lap and just get stuck there. Then you are hoping that you can still make one less stop, despite running in traffic with the extra tyre wear that involves.
The ability to make up significant places here requires not just a good strategy, but the pace to pull it off, and there is nobody that sticks out as a likely contender.
Upgrades
This weekend has seen more upgrades across the teams than any other weekend so far and nobody seems to have made any great relative gains. Ferrari are a little better, but the true test comes in the race for them. Mercedes was very happy in free practice, their porpoising problems seem to have been greatly reduced, but they are still the third best car.
Alfa Romeo seem to have hit their targets as well as anyone, at least in Bottas’ hands, but he suffered another retirement in practice. It is no good being faster if you end up parked by the side of the track. Perhaps the most improved performance came from Haas, and they have not brought any upgrades! Both cars into Q3 for the first time this season and that despite a serious fire on Schumacher’s car in FP3.
McLaren, Alpine, Alpha Tauri, Aston Martin and Williams appear to have made no progress, or fallen back.
2022 Spanish GP Raceday Update Selections – Side Markets
In the battle for the third podium position, Carlos Sainz is 1.91 and starting from third, at Barcelona, is a great place to start but his long run pace in FP3 was a worry. His tyres were shot after 8-9 laps while Leclerc was getting 16. Sainz is not as happy with the car, the rear end is not doing what he wants, and he might suffer in the high temperatures.
George Russell, the most consistent driver of 2022, starts from a season best 4th. The Mercedes has looked better over a race distance than in qualifying this season and with the porpoising problems now minimised, he could take advantage of any problems Sainz has. He is 2.75 to finish on the podium but looks better value to win Ladbrokes Group 1 at a bigger price. He is grouped with Sainz, Perez and Hamilton, much the same as his battle for the last podium position but is 3.75 to win the group.
2022 Spanish GP Raceday Update Tip: 1 point George Russell to win Ladbrokes Group 1 @ 3.75
Valtteri Bottas has picked up two top six finishes from the first five races, one seventh, one eighth and one DNF. But for a late mistake in Miami, he would have had another. The Alfa does seem to have made progress, he has gone well here in the past and he must have a reasonable chance to be right in the mix again from seventh on the grid. He is 2.50 to finish in the top 6.
2022 Spanish GP Raceday Update Tip: 1 point Valtteri Bottas to finish in the top 6 @ 2.50 with BET365
Kevin Magnussen starts from eighth on the grid and with both Haas making Q3, its clear the car is good over the track. He has a couple of top 7 places to his credit for Haas in Barcelona and is an experienced operator. Magnussen makes little appeal at 1.57 to finish in the points, but a little more to win Ladbrokes Group 2. He is up against the two McLarens, who, sadly for our ante post bets, look to have taken a step backwards, and Ocon, and the same can be said for Alpine.
