2022 Stephens’ Day Leopardstown Tips

Dave Stevos has already tipped up a 50/1 shot at Down Royal tomorrow (and a 40s poke at Market Rasen), see that preview here. He has also previewed Monday’s Kempton and Wetherby cards (see here) and he has a King George ante-post preview too. You can check out his 2022 Stephens’ Day Leopardstown tips below.

1.10 – Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2)

A tricky opener for us at Leopardstown. We have an odds on favourite here with Lossiemouth. Mullins trains and Ricci owns this daughter of Great Pretender and she was impressive on her Irish debut. A 10L winner on her sole start in France, Mullins pitched her in at G3 level at Fairyhouse. She won that very easily, beating a promising sort in Zarak The Brave by 4L without coming out of 3rd gear.

The bookies make Nusret the most likely challenger. Daryl Jacob is home to ride this son of Golden Horn, a useful stayer on the flat (won off 83). He hosed up in a 3yo hurdle at Punchestown on his first try over timber. The 8.5L 3rd has since placed in a Listed race at Aintree and Nusret was giving her 7lbs so it looks like solid form.

Unbeaten

Cougar remains unbeaten over hurdles after two starts. A narrow maiden win at Gowran was followed by an easier win at Down Royal in a minor 3yo race. However, the form of both those races is piss poor and it remains to be seen if he is up to this level. Mark Walsh rides him ahead of Risk Belle (and Sundial) and at 33s, I think the McManus ‘second string’ could be worth a punt e/w with Luke Dempsey on board.

She has 12L to find with Lossiemouth on their Fairyhouse meeting. The daughter of No Risk At All is now 7lbs better off and she ran much better than the distance she was beaten suggests last time. She was travelling as well as any as they turned for home and she jumped into contention at the second last. However, maybe the lack of a recent run told as she just kept going at the one pace after the last.

She didn’t throw in the towel though and Blackmore wasn’t hard on her at all. With that run under her belt, she could well improve massively. Both of her wins in France came going left handed, so that might make a difference too. Luke Dempsey has ridden plenty of winners in JP’s colours in the past, often on second, third or fourth strings. Here’s hoping he can steer Risk Belle into the money at odds of 33/1.

2022 St Stephens’ Day Leopardstown tips: Risk Belle e/w @ 33/1

1.45 – Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (0-123)

These novice handicaps are always exceedingly difficult puzzles to decipher. A big field of 18 and you could run it 20 times and there’d be 20 different winners. The bookies make Low Style a very short 2/1 favourite but his form figures on soft read 000F. Yes, he was very impressive at Roscommon on handicap debut (15.5f gd) but this will be very different ground. Barry Connell has enlisted the services of top claimer Michael O’Sullivan but 2/1 in a minefield of a race like this?

At bigger odds, Rock Ya Boy Ya could improve now tackling handicaps for the first time. I usually don’t back handicap debutants, especially ones that have been well beaten in their maidens. However, this son of Red Jazz has been competitive in three of his five runs over timber and he was still travelling well enough when falling in a maiden won by Icare Allen over this C&D a year ago.

He gets in off 109 here and with Thomas Reilly’s claim, he effectively races off 102. At Naas in March he ran 4th, 8L behind the now 142 rated Celestial Horizon off levels. He was 6L behind the 116 rated Evergreen and Red and 2.5L ahead of subsequent maiden winner Must Meet Cecil (to whom he gave 7lbs). Francis Casey’s charge has had a couple of outings at Dundalk to sharpen him up and if he handles the ground, he could outrun his odds of 28/1.

2022 St Stephens’ Day Leopardstown tips: Rock Ya Boy Ya e/w @ 28/1 (5 places)

2.20 – Novice Chase (Grade 1)

These Novice Chases have served us well already this season. The previous experience of Darrens Hope and Sebastopol proved to be crucial when winning at big odds and the top three in the betting here have had just one start over fences apiece. To be fair, Fil Dor and Hollow Games didn’t do much wrong on their chasing debuts and Saint Roi, 4L 2nd to Fil Dor at Navan, jumped well enough too.

However, I’m going to take them on and to be honest, it was tough to split Midnight Shadow and Visionarian. The former is the most experienced chaser in the field, with eight starts. His best run was his last one, a 9L stroll to victory in a Punchestown G2. On his previous outing he had a race fitness advantage over Visionarian (who he was also getting 7lbs from) and he still finished a length behind him.

Third Chase Start

Peter Fahey’s son of Vision D’Etat was having his third chase start that day. He had won the previous two, a soft ground beginners chase at Wexford before landing a decent Grade 3 Novice at Galway. Fahey has freshened him up since his fine effort behind Adamantly Chosen at Punchestown and that’s another plus. His form figures after breaks of 75+ days read 121712, he is better off with Midnight Shadow at the weights despite beating him last time and at 28s, hopefully Keith Donoghue can get his third win from just five rides for Fahey.

2022 St Stephens’ Day Leopardstown tips: Visionarian e/w @ 28/1 NB

2.55 – Handicap Chase (0-140)

A single figure field in this race for the first time since 2009. Last year Grange Walk landed the prize for John Ryan off 130 and he is back to try and repeat the trick. The 7yo is now rated 8lbs higher and his jockey’s claim is now 3lbs (from 5lbs) so he is effectively 10lbs higher. On the plus side, he was a fine 2nd in a much stronger race than this over today’s C&D off 137 last February. If he were mine, I’d prefer him to be going for that £60k first prize rather than the £18k on offer today so maybe, they’ll be minding his mark.

If things drop right for him, Espion Du Chenet could go well at a price. We backed this horse when he won at Punchestown back in May. He scored off 127 that day and with his jockey’s claim, he is effectively 4lbs lower here. This horse is a hold up merchant and he’ll need them to go a decent gallop. He has run well without troubling the judge the last thrice, especially when beat just 2.5L at Down Royal and 3L at Cork.

Cian Quirke has ridden him the last three times and he should be getting to know how he needs to be ridden now. Halsafari (if trying), The Folkes Tiara and Final Orders in particular will likely go forward and hopefully they won’t hang around. Once Quirke doesn’t get there too soon, like he did at Cork two runs back, Espion Du Chenet is more than capable of hitting the frame at odds of 22/1.

2022 St Stephens’ Day Leopardstown tips: Espion du Chenet e/w @ 22/1 NAP

-DaveStevos

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