2022 UK Open Darts Preview

The 2022 UK Open Darts competition will be the 20th renewal of a tournament that is often referred to as the FA Cup of darts, due to the fact that no players are seeded and after the third round a random draw takes place to establish who plays who. That means we could see Gerwyn Price drawn to play Peter Wright in the fourth round, for example.

All 128 tour card holders get an entry, and they will be joined by the top 4 players from each of the 2021 UK & European Challenge & Development Tour Orders of Merit, and by the winners of 16 Amateur Qualification events organised through Rileys Sports Bars. The ‘Amateur’ qualifications are nowadays, throwing up qualifiers such as Jelle Klassen, Diogo Portela, Ryan Murray, Paul Hogan and Kai Fan Leung. All professional or semi-professional players.

2022 UK Open Darts: 158 Entries

That means we have a field of 160 players (158 as two have withdrawn) on Friday lunchtime, which will be whittled down to two playing the final on Sunday night. That is a lot of darts to be thrown. Needless to say, there are multiple boards in operation and only two are televised and this preview will not be covering every player!

The random draw does get everyone excited as it opens up the possibility of an outsider having a good run, like a plucky third division team having a good cup run, but just like the F.A. Cup, it is the big teams that end up lifting the trophy on Sunday.

Looking at the past ten years we have not seen many surprise winners. Nathan Aspinall was a 126.00 outsider when he won the title in 2019, but if you followed this blog, he certainly wasn’t a surprise. He was a player in great form but overlooked by the oddsmakers.

8 Different Winners in 10 Years

The last ten years have produced eight different winners, and that is likely to be a result of the random nature of the draw. Only Michael van Gerwen is a multiple winner (x3) and he is the only player to defend his title, in 2016. The last ten winners are Robert Thornton, Phil Taylor, Adrian Lewis, MVG, Peter Wright, Gary Anderson, Nathan Aspinall and James Wade.

Some players have good tournament records. Gerwyn Price has yet to win it but, he is a two-time runner up and reached two other semi-finals. Peter Wright is a former winner, a two-time runner up and reached one other semi-final. MVG is a three-time winner and reached two other semi-finals. Daryl Gurney has reached two semi-finals in the last five years, so there are some players who like the sea air at Butlins, Minehead, which is once again the venue after being played behind closed doors last year.

The golden rule for looking for a potential winner, is like any other tournament, is backing the form players who offer value. There just isn’t a draw to help narrow down the field.

Big Guns Enter In 4th Round

Just like the F.A. Cup, the big names do not enter the competition until the fourth round. The lowest ranked 64 players enter at the first round stage. The 32 winners then play the players ranked 96-65 in the second round. Those winners then face the players ranked 64-33 in the third round with those winners joining the draw with the top flight players ranked 32-1.

Obviously, entering the competition at as late a stage as possible improves a player’s chance of winning. The entry for the tournament has changed and up to and including 2018, there used to be a number of UK Open qualifying tournaments, in much the same way as the Players Championship qualifiers, and these events, established the O.O.M.

Since 2019, the PDC O.O.M has been used to provide the rankings. In the last ten years the lowest ranked player to win was Phil Taylor who was ranked 44th in 2013. He was only ranked that low due to him not playing the full complement of qualifying events at the time. He was the number 1 ranked player on the PDC O.O.M. at the time, or if not, very close to it. Under the ‘modern’ entry system, Nathan Aspinall was the lowest ranked player at 34th. Luke Humphries was the lowest ranked runner up, being ranked 41st last year.

Don’t Discount The Fav

The number 1 ranked player has won four times in the last ten years, so do not be tempted to rule out the short-priced favourite. In the last eight years the winner has been ranked in the top six seven times, with only Aspinall bucking the trend.

The runners up have tended to be lower ranked, but four have been ranked inside the top four, the rest between 16th to 41st.

It looks logical to concentrate on players ranked in the top 10 to find the likely winner, and the top 40 or so for possible runners up, or semi-finalists. Again, only consider players who are in good form and showing real promise.

2022 UK Open Darts: Top 10 ranked players

1. Gerwyn Price

Still the world number one and winner of last weekend’s International Darts Open. He is in top form and has a good tournament record. Likely winner.

2. Peter Wright

On the cusp of becoming world number 1, runner up to Price last weekend, a former tournament winner and two time runner up. Very possible winner.

3. Michael van Gerwen

Three time winner but a shadow of his former self. His world ranking, based on historic form, flatters him. The more current form based FDI rankings have MVG at 5th and even that flatters him in my opinion. Hard to see him winning this given his lack of confidence and form.

4. James Wade

The defending champion and playing well, but his win rate in 2022 is just 54% and his average 93.1. He has been scoring better than that in recent weeks, but he hasn’t won more than two matches in a row in his last ten. That is not to rule him out, but I suspect he will come up against someone who is better on the day.

5. Michael Smith

The enigma that is Michael Smith is averaging 98.8 in 2022, but his win rate is just 44% and he has lost seven of his last ten. 2019 Semi-finalist but always hard to fancy in a televised event.

6. Gary Anderson

The 2018 champion is averaging 97.8 in 2022 but has lost five of his last ten matches and his win rate is just 50%.

7. Jose De Sousa

Just a little off the boil for a while now. The Special One has lost four of his last ten and his average in 2022 is 95.2 with a win rate of 65%.

8. Jonny Clayton

Much like De Sousa, Clayton is just a bit off his best at the moment. He has lost four of his last six, is averaging 97.0 with a win rate of 68%. Usually a very consistent player, The Ferret cannot be dismissed, but I’d like to see a better win rate. A contender.

9. Dimitri van den Bergh

Dimitri looked in decent nick at the weekend, reaching the quarter final, but he just had a mare on the doubles (16%) and he was dumped out by Jonny Clayton. He remains in good form with eight wins from his last ten matches, has a 2022 win rate of 72% and averaging 97.5. Shortlist material.

10. Rob Cross

Cross is not in top form, losing four of his last ten. His win rate is 63% and his average 95.6.

Price In Irresistible Form

I would be surprised if the winner did not come from this list. Gerwyn Price is irresistible right now and after at least making the semi-final in four of the last five years here, I suspect this is a box he wants to tick. The crowds in Minehead are generally made up of darts fans rather than the casual fans that turn up at Premier League nights just to get pissed and abuse him. He should get a decent playing environment for once which is another plus.

Peter Wright is a man on a mission and while he has not made the semi-finals for the last four years, he was a finalist for three years in a row between 2015 and 2017. He isn’t playing as well as Price is at the moment, but Wright has to be on the shortlist.

Dimitri van den Bergh is near his best right now, but he needs to spend this week practicing his doubles, especially double 16 and double 8. That cost him, and us, dearly at the weekend.

2022 UK Open Darts: Outsiders to Consider

Is there a Nathan Aspinall type of player who might defy a lower ranking an go all the way, or do what Humphries did last year and make the final?

Joe Cullen

A winner of three titles already in 2022, Cullen must enter calculations. After winning back-to-back players championship titles three weeks ago, Cullen lost his last premier league match, beat Madars Razma on the euro tour on Saturday, but lost 3-6 to Nathan Aspinall in the third round. The common feature in those three matches was poor doubling, just 27% across those three matches. Just a blip, or has his red-hot form cooled significantly? Perhaps, but his win rate in 2022 is 82% so don’t be surprised if he has a good run.

Nathan Aspinall

The supposedly injured Aspinall reached the semi-final of the International Darts Open at the weekend. From only starting to throw practice darts again a couple of weeks ago, to a semi-final is quite the recovery. The story is that he needs surgery, has been advised to stop throwing such is the problem, but he was able to average 102 when beating James Wade 6-2 in the semi-final. He played three matches on Sunday and appeared to be absolutely fine. Aspinall won this in 2019 but backing him this year depends on whether you believe his injury really is a problem or not.

Ryan Searle

Heavy Metal is on many peoples short list of players who will win a major title soon. He reached the final of the Players Championship last November and started 2022 with a run to the final of PC1 a month ago, but most recently, he has won just one of his last five matches. The four defeats all saw very poor doubling stats of 27% or worse. This is a ‘home’ match for Searle so he will have plenty of support and maybe the fact that his best major performance came at this very venue is something of a hint.

Luke Humphries

Like Searle, Humphries is expected to win his first major soon. He came close here last year, thrashing MVG in the semi-final but losing to James Wade in the final. Humphries picked up his first senior PDC title when winning PC1 last month, which is significant. He played well to reach the quarter final of PC4 two weeks ago only to lose 5-6 to Gerwyn Price. He averaged 99.9 that day, so his most recent form is very good.

Danny Noppert

Noppert returned to action at the weekend after taking paternity leave, and he played well enough, beating Merv King and MVG before losing to Gerwyn Price in the quarter final. His scoring wasn’t great and it is asking a lot to expect peak form after a long layoff.

Daryl Gurney

Superchin has reached the semi-final here twice in the last five years and won the 2018 Players Championship final at the same venue. His win rate in 2022 is 73% but his scoring is still lacking some consistency. He is defending £20000 prizemoney from his 2020 semi-final which brings its own pressure, but his ranking won’t be badly affected by an early exit. A good run is possible, but he may not be quite ready to win.

Damon Heta

Another player tipped by many to be ready to win his first major this year. He has been playing some very good stuff this year, winning 72% of his matches and averaging 100.3, so his game is right up there with the very best. He was runner up to Joe Cullen in PC3 a few weeks ago and reached the semi-final of PC2 the week before that. His record in majors is not great, however, and he is not a prolific title winner, but his form is good enough to give him a shout this weekend.

Josh Rock

A player who only got a tour card in January and has lost all four of his pro tour matches, albeit with two losing ton plus averages. However, he has played in three development tour events this year, won two and was runner up in the other. The young Northern Irishman isn’t going to win the title, but he might well have good run.

2022 UK Open Darts Outright Selections

2 points Gerwyn Price to win the 2022 UK Open Darts @ 6.00 with Hills

1 point e/w* Dimitri van den Bergh to win the 2022 UK Open Darts @ 26.00 with Betfred, Hills

 0.5 point e/w Luke Humphries to win the 2022 UK Open Darts @ 51.00 with Starsports

0.5 point e/w Damon Heta to win the 2022 UK Open Darts @ 51.00 generally available

*e/w terms for this event are a quarter the odds 1-4.

-JamesPunt