2022 United States GP Preview and Betting Tips

It was another decent weekend for James Punt’s followers at the Japanese GP. As predicted Max Verstappen took pole at odds of 2.50 and also won the race at 1.60. His top 6 bet on Ocon at 2.62 also landed, as did his bet on Vettel to finish in the points at 1.80. Let’s hope the good times keep rolling this weekend, his 2022 United States GP preview is below.

2022 United States GP Preview

The Drivers’ Championship was settled at a very soggy Suzuka with a dominant display by Verstappen. Next up is for Red Bull to take the Constructors’ Championship. They have a lead of 165 points over Ferrari with just four races so it is only a matter of time.

The Circuit of the Americas is a purpose-built track, opened in 2012. In the turbo hybrid era there have been seven races (2020 was cancelled). Mercedes won the first four with Hamilton, but the last three saw wins for Raikkonen and Ferrari, Bottas for Mercedes and Verstappen for Red Bull.

Hybrid Track

The lay out is a bit of a hybrid track, nicking Silverstone’s esses and Hockenheim’s stadium section. It was designed by Herman Tilke and was designed to have a bit of everything. There are 20 corners, 2 DRS zones, a couple of straights, a technical sector and 6 slow corners that require heavy braking in to, and good traction out of.

Those slower corners are the best overtaking spots, but they also often lead to collisions and it is a track that tends to lead to wheel to wheel combat. The first corner is a blind left hander at the top of a steep incline and first lap damage is almost guaranteed.

The attrition rate is at the higher end of the scale with at least three DNF’s in the turbo hybrid era, a high of eight and an average of 4.33 per race. The driver on pole position has won three of the six races, the other three came from second place on the grid, so clearly grid position is important here.

Drivers with good records here are Hamilton, Verstappen, Ricciardo, Sainz, Leclerc and Perez, but there is nothing out of the ordinary in terms of driver or manufacturers records.

Recent Form Ominous

Recent form points only in one direction. Red Bull and Max Verstappen. He has now won six of the last seven races, Sergio Perez the other. Verstappen leads the Drivers’ Championship table by 113 points from Sergio Perez. The way things are going, it looks like we will finish the season with Red Bull 1-2 in the Drivers’ Championship and winning the Constructor’s title. A very dominant season, despite Ferrari having the faster car for much of the season.

The Ferrari is better over a single lap, and they have scored 11 pole positions, but they only converted three into race wins. In two of those races, Verstappen did not finish and in the other was carrying significant car damage. Given a clean race with good reliability, it seems nobody is touching Verstappen.

Perez has done his winning on street circuits of which this isn’t one, but with traction out of the slow corners here being important, his smooth power delivery should serve him well and a sixth Red Bull 1-2 would not be a surprise.

Ferrari will be competitive in qualifying and may even get another pole but is hard to see why they should be able to turn the tables on Red Bull come race day.

Mercedes’ Best Chance?

George Russell was asked where he thought Mercedes’ best chance of a win in 2022 would come, and he said the US GP. He should know that one feature of this track is that it is very bumpy. It was built on marshy ground and every year the tarmac sinks a little bit here and there. Every year the FIA get the circuit owners to bring in machinery to grid down and resurface the worst bumps, but make no mistake, this is a bone shaker.

The Mercedes does not like bumps. Its suspension is stiffer than most and it makes the car hard to drive on bumpy tracks. They may need to raise the ride height so not to fall foul of the porpoising regulations and that means losing performance. I tend to disagree with George. Mercedes may have dominated here in the past, but that grip had been loosened in recent years and this year, all of their fortresses have fallen. The bookmakers may be giving too much credence to Russell’s comments as Lewis Hamilton has been made the second favourite to win the race by Ladbrokes.

Max Odds On

Verstappen is the 1.55 favourite to make it race win number 13 in 2022. He is more like a 1.30 shot in my book, so there is still some value in the odds. There will be some people predicting that Red Bull will now want Max to do Perez a favour and let him win a race or two before the end of the season, to help him come second in the championship.

There might be some merit in that argument, but Max is a racer and will want to win every race. Red Bull don’t need Perez to win, just to finish ahead of Leclerc. We have the Mexican GP coming up after this race, and that may be a venue where Red Bull can see the merit in helping their Mexican driver to win his home race, rather than here in Texas.

Grid Penalty Leclerc

Ferrari have announced that Charles Leclerc will take a new ICU for his power unit and faces a 5 place grid penalty as a result. The US GP has been the scene of grid penalties in the past and Leclerc may not be the only one to be moving down the grid on Sunday. This makes ante post punting higher risk and this will be one of those races where the bulk of any betting will be done on race day.

Qualifying isn’t affected by the grid penalties and it is the more competitive part of the weekend. Red Bull may have dominated the races by and large, but Ferrari have been the top qualifiers across the season with 9 poles for Leclerc, 6 for Verstappen and 1 each for Sainz, Perez and Russell. However, since the end of the summer break, it has been three for Verstappen and two for Leclerc. There was just 0.010 between the two at Suzuka so you can see how finally poised it is.

Extra Power

The fact that Ferrari are going to introduce a new ICU for Leclerc means that they see a benefit for doing so. The championship is decided, the constructors all but run, so they are looking ahead to 2023 by introducing an upgraded internal combustion unit ahead of schedule. The upgrade will be justified by calling it a reliability fix, but it’s always about performance. Perhaps having a few more horses under his right foot will be enough for Leclerc to edge it from Verstappen.

2022 United States GP Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to be the fastest qualifier @ 2.60 with Ladbrokes

We have had back to back wet weather qualifying sessions but this weekend is set to be hot and sunny with 0% chance of rain in any session.

In the battle to be best of the rest, Alpine bounced back from two pointless races with a 4th and 7th in Japan and Alonso missed the 6th place by a whisker. They are finishing the season in good form and while there are reliability worries and the fact that Alonso may need a new power unit with associated grid penalties, Alpine have a car that goes well everywhere now. Alonso has failed to finish here in his last three visits and Alpine suffered a double DNF here last year.

Alpine Plan Paying Off

Alpine are now 13 points clear of McLaren and, despite drawing two blanks in Italy and Singapore, their plan of continuous development has paid off. They have been bringing small upgrades to most races and have moved forward at a steady rate.

Reliability may have been sacrificed at times, but they are a team trying to move up the pecking order in the medium term. McLaren have had just one double points finish in the last seven races and it is the weakness of Ricciardo which is hurting them.

Aston On The Up

Aston Martin are another team who have worked hard on car development and they are up to 7th place in the Constructors and closing in on Alfa Romeo who are just seven points ahead. Alfa have stalled in the second half of the season, with just one point score in the last nine races. Aston have scored 31 points over the same period.

Sebastian Vettel has always gone well here and got a point for Aston Martin here last year. With four points scoring finishes from his last six races in 2022, there is some momentum behind him as he writes the final chapters of his F1 career.

2022 United States GP Tip: 1 point Sebastian Vettel to finish in the points @ 2.10 with Hills, Ladbrokes, Betfred

Aston Martin have had just two double points finishes in 2022 and their second was in Singapore. Both drivers have become regulars in the points, both five times in the last ten, and at the risk of putting too many eggs in the Vettel basket, they do look a bit underrated given their improved form.

2022 United States GP Tip: 1 point double points finish for Aston Martin @ 5.50 with Ladbrokes

Williams and Alpha Tauri have been adding a few points in the last five races and Alpha Tauri are now tied on points with Haas. That is a big battle between the two as it is worth millions in prize money.

Williams will not enjoy the forecast for Sunday as the wind is due to pick up and be quite gusty. Their car has struggled in these conditions all season so it could be another blank for them.

JamesPunt