2022 US GP Qualifying Update and Tips – JP
2022 US GP Qualifying Update
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2022 US GP Qualifying update. Check it out below.
2022 US GP Qualifying Tips
It was a very disjointed Friday with FP1 featuring six ‘rookie’ drivers getting a run out. Some of the regular drivers had to sit the session out, including Charles Leclerc, so they missed out on important track time to get used to the track again.
FP2 was largely given over to Pirelli to conduct a tyre test for their 2023 prototypes. The six drivers who had sat out FP1, were allowed 30 minutes running on this year’s compounds and Leclerc set the best time before he joined the others, pounding round and racking up data for Pirelli. All very unusual.
Grid Penalties Looming
There was also the spectre of looming grid penalties for various drivers, but only Perez and Zhou were confirmed as getting 5 place penalties. Everyone was waiting for news about Ferrari, but it never came. Sainz had been fastest in FP1 and Leclerc in FP2, so they had started the weekend well, but how many penalty places would they be getting? The bookies seemed to think it was going to be a back of the grid job and pushed Leclerc out to 8.00 and Sainz to 6.00.
Leclerc had taken a full suite of penalties in Montreal and only ran in Q1 as he knew he was going to be starting at the back of the grid and saw no reason to do any more. However, if he was just to be taking a 5 place penalty, I suspect he would be giving it full beans all the way to Q3 and going for the fastest time possible. I would say that the bookies were making an assumption that this was going to be a Montreal type of scenario when there was no evidence to confirm it.
Leclerc Impressive
It was only Friday, and a strange one at that, but Leclerc looked very impressive, Red Bull had slow corner understeer, the Mercs were sloth like on the straights, Alpine looked strong in the midfield, and Aston Martin hit the ground running.
Red Bull usually sort any weaknesses out over Friday night, but Ferrari’s one lap pace will be hard to match here, and this morning odds change was a real head scratcher, but with no news re grid penalties, it was hard to be decisive.
FP3 would tell us more, and by then we will have news about the penalties.
With FP3 now finished we now know that Charles Leclerc will have a 10 place grid penalty for taking a new ICU and turbo. Fernando Alonso a 5 place penalty for a new ICU. That should mean that both will be trying their best in qualifying rather than being resigned to a back of the grid start.
Max Fastest
The session ended with Max Verstappen 0.320 ahead of Charles Leclerc and 0.446 ahead of Carlos Sainz in the other Ferrari. It had been very close up to Verstappen’s final flying lap. Is that margin locked in, or will it be closer?
I suspect that it should be closer. The cars look well matched over a single lap and with a new ICU and turbo, Leclerc might have a small horsepower advantage when it’s all tuned up.
However, the defining factor might well be something we cannot see. The wind.
It is gusty today (and forecast to be worse tomorrow). This track has a lot of corners, some into the wind, some downwind, some cross winds. If you get a gust at the wrong moment, the lap is lost. There is a significant random factor in play. Track limits will be in play so expect times being deleted and there will be some hard luck stories.
Value Lies With Leclerc
We have backed Leclerc for pole ante post and it is still a live bet, but I am happy it is just 1 point bet. It does look to be between Max and Charles again. Leclerc has drifted out to 5.00, Verstappen in to 1.62. If you haven’t already backed Charles, I would say the value lies in his odds, which is not to say he will be the fastest qualifier, just that he has a better chance than those odds suggest.
In two of the last three years here, the winning margin in qualifying has been under 0.999 seconds and it has looked very close so far this weekend. A gust of wind in Q3 could skew the times, but hopefully this will be another thriller with the proverbial ball hair between the two main protagonists.
2022 US GP Qualifying Tips: 1 point qualifying winning margin under 0.099 seconds @ 2.65 with Unibet
Qualifying match betting wise, there is one with a slither of value. At Aston Martin, Vettel is 10-6 up on Stroll in 2022, but in the last six, it is the Canadian who is 4-2 up. There was only 0.064 between them in FP3 and I’ll take Lance to continue his decent recent form and just edge out Vettel.
