2022 Wednesday Leopardstown Xmas Meeting Tips

Usually, I briefly look back at how the previous preview’s selections ran. However, after a dreadful day in both Ireland and the UK with just one place, I think it is best to move swiftly on. It has been a really poor couple of days but we still have a chance to bounce back. Dave Stevos’ is going to do his level best to end the drought, his 2022 Wednesday Leopardstown Xmas tips are below.

12.35 – Handicap Hurdle (80-116)

Back on proper soft ground, Music Of Tara can surely take a step forward from her first two runs of the season. She ran really well in a maiden hurdle at this meeting last year, shaping though she needed further. In that maiden (16f sft) you had the likes of Marvel De Cerisy (135 rated), Dartington (124 rated), Whatsavailable (125 rated) and Flaming Moon (123 rated) all in pretty close proximity to the De Bromhead horse and she gets in off just 111 today on her second handicap start.

It was interesting that De Bromhead kept her at 16f on her next three maiden starts. Apart from her run in Kilbeggan, when she probably needed it, she has repeatedly shaped like she wanted further. She finally stepped up to 20f last time on her handicap debut at Punchestown on good ground. It looked like she needed the experience of the hustle and bustle of handicap company and the run should serve her well.

The handicapper gave her a pound back for that last effort and she now gets soft conditions for the first time this season. Her pedigree is all about stamina so this 20f trip should be ideal for now, although you’d imagine she’ll get further in time. This is a big field but there are a lot of moderate horses in there and if Music Of Tara repeats the level she showed here last Xmas, she can surely go close at odds of 22/1.

2022 Wednesday Leopardstown Xmas Tips: Music Of Tara e/w @ 22/1 (6 places) NAP

1.10 – Pertemps Hurdle Qualifier (0-145)

Another massive field and the one I’m backing at big odds is Jiving Jerry. Trained in Kilkenny by James Barcoe, this 7yo looks very interesting upped to 24f on soft for the first time. By a classy sire in Jeremy, this lad last won at Galway (22f sft) back in October of last year. After an excellent run at Navan in a valuable handicap dropped back to 20f, he ran a moderate race on faster ground at the Galway Festival.

Barcoe gave him another break after that run and he made a satisfactory reappearance at Naas (20f yld/sft), finishing 8/18. A month ago at Navan, Barcoe’s charge shaped like he was coming back to form with a lovely run over 22f on soft. He stayed on well up the hill and on that evidence, 24f on soft at Leopardstown should really suit.

As is the case with all 33/1 shots, it isn’t all good news. Sarah Kavanagh is on board, claiming 7lbs. To be fair, she rode a 50/1 shot to victory for Barcoe a few weeks ago so that’s probably why she is riding. Her overall record for the yard is 9 rides, a win and five top 4s, not too shabby at all. With her claim this gelding is effectively a pound lower than for his Galway win and he’s unexposed at this distance. At odds of 33/1 he is the each way selection.

2022 Wednesday Leopardstown Xmas Tips: Jiving Jerry e/w @ 33/1 (6 places) NB

1.45 – Jack De Bromhead Hurdle (Grade 1)

The 2020 winner and 2021 runner up, Flooring Porter, is the favourite here. Gavin Cromwell’s charge landed the big one at Cheltenham last season for the second year running and the 7yo is the one to beat if at his best. However, it can’t be ignored that he has won just one of his last six. In fact, his last two wins have come at Cheltenham and there is no doubting that race is his main aim again.

Bob Olinger, a lucky winner at Cheltenham in March, is a hard one to weigh up. Yes, he is clearly a classy animal but he never really took to chasing as his fans hoped. Does he stay 3 miles? The jury is out on that too. His dam is related to a 3 mile winner but most of the other relations did their winning at 16f to 22f. No doubt he’ll be doing his best as Henry will be desperate to win the race named after his son, there won’t be a dry eye in the house if he does manage it.

Can Home Repeat Navan Heroics

I was a bit miffed when Home By The Lee won at huge odds at Navan. I actually put him up for the Stayers’ at Cheltenham as my NB, I was just sure that 20f at Navan was far too sharp for him. He then of course won very impressively, staying on dourly. If this turns into a slog, I can see him upholding that form with the two market leaders. He definitely has less to prove than Zanahiyr, who somehow is shorter in the betting.

This horse has yet to race beyond 20f. He flopped at that trip at Navan, though he needed the run according to Elliott. On his other try at 20f he fell at Aintree when in the process of putting it up to Epatante. His pedigree doesn’t scream three miles and he is very short for a horse with just one win since landing a G2 hurdle at this meeting in 2020.

Not The Same Horse

Beacon Edge hasn’t been the same horse since going down narrowly to Farouk D’Alene on bottomless ground in a Navan G2. He’s been way off it his last three starts and he’s impossible to be confident in. I’m not sure about Ashdale Bob’s stamina for this trip on soft ground. He stayed it well when chasing home Klassical Dream at Punchestown but that was on good. He also has 12L to find with Home By The Lee on their meeting in the Lismullen.

Handicapping Job

I’d imagine Commander Of Fleet is being handicapped for Cheltenham and Sire Du Berlais has never run well at Leopardstown. The interesting one at monstrous odds is Meet And Greet. Oliver McKiernan’s son of Mustameet flopped at Naas last time on his first handicap start. He clearly must have needed it badly because he is a much better horse than that.

Last season he ran a massive race stepped up to 24f for the first time in the G1 Novice at Punchestown (gd/yld). He ran on really well for a 6L 3rd, just 5L behind Minella Cocooner and 20L clear of the 4th. He won his maiden on soft at Naas (15.5f) and was then placed in a G2 next time over the same trip and ground. If he could repeat that Punchestown run on his first try back up at 24f since, Meet And Greet might just be able to sneak a place at odds of 66/1.

2022 Wednesday Leopardstown Xmas Tips: Meet And Greet e/w @ 66/1  

2.20 – Savills Chase (Grade 1)

The big one. A Plus Tard, pulled up last time, is the 6/4 fav. Last term’s Gold Cup hero was beat a short head by Galvin in this last season in his bid for two in a row but then reversed that form emphatically at Cheltenham. This horse was fast enough to beat a prime Chacun Pour Soi over 17f here and that defeat in this race last year is the only loss he has had at this track in three runs.

Galvin is a quality horse, he just lacks the gears to compete with the crème de la crème on good ground. On this type of a surface he gets away with it, just like he did when outstaying A Plus Tard in this in 2021. He was disappointing last time at Down Royal and he has now been beaten 17L, 24L and 15L in three of his last four starts. For a horse that was ultra-consistent previously, that has to be a concern.

Ground A Concern For Conflated?

Jack Kennedy gets the leg up on Conflated. He was a shock winner at the Dublin Racing Festival in February. He was running a big race before falling late on at Cheltenham and then he just failed to reel in Clan Des Obeaux at Aintree. At Down Royal he ran a grand race and he should strip much fitter now. My only worry for him would be very soft ground. Four of his five wins have come on yielding or quicker.

Kemboy ran a cracker in this last year and his form figures in the race read 1423. His last win came over C&D in the Irish Gold Cup in February ‘21 and the 10yo can nearly always be relied upon to run his race around here. He should go well again. However, at the prices, I’m going to back Franco De Port e/w in the hope he can sneak a place from off the pace.

He’s the rank outsider here at 40s but the 7yo has a big run in him on a going day. The son of Coastal Path probably ran to a mark in the low 160s in the Thyestes when 2nd and he has had three runs already this season so he won’t lack for fitness. He’s been placed and won in G1 company as a Novice over 17f at this track so he likes it here. He definitely stays this trip and the softer the ground, the better. In the hope that one or two of the principals falter, Franco De Port is worth a couple of quid e/w at odds of 40/1.

2022 Wednesday Leopardstown Xmas Tips: Franco De Port e/w @ 40/1

He’s too short for the blog today but Time Marches On, a horse I have NAPPED the last twice, goes in the 3.15 at Limerick. He was a non-runner the last day when I put him up at Punchestown and he should enjoy the ground at Limerick. James Motherway’s charge just missed out on getting into the Pertemps qualifier at Leopardstown and this is a much weaker race than the one he contested last time. There’s still some 8/1 available and I think he’ll win.

-DaveStevos