2023 Aintree Festival Friday Preview & Tips – DS
2023 Aintree Festival Friday Preview
We came back down to earth with a bang on Thursday. To be fair, both Visionarian and Rightsotom ran crackers and it was only a lack of extra place offers that cost us. Unfortunately, Ga Law jumped terribly, Coastal Tiep started out the back and stayed there and Mackenberg had a shocker too. A blank to start Day 1, things can only get better (hopefully). Our 2023 Aintree Festival Friday tips are below.
1.45 – Mildmay Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
All the hype around this race concerns Davy Russell and Gerri Colombe. Both are seeking redemption following failures at Cheltenham, though the horse certainly has less questions to answer than the jockey. The Real Whacker edged out Gerri Colombe in a thrilling tussle in the Brown Advisory and only a short head separated them at the finish. Bronn was 4.75L back in 3rd and I Am Maximus, the Irish National winner on Monday, was a further 6L back in 4th.
Galia Des Liteaux finished well beaten in 5th, 16L behind the front two. She’d like softer conditions though and the home challenge is led by Complete Unknown (according to the bookies). He proved no match for the Skelton mare in the mud at Warwick in January but he absolutely hosed up last time over 20f in a handicap at Kempton on slightly better ground. However, all his wins have come on soft or heavy and he is 0/4 on ground with good in the description.
Old Boy
At the prices, the old boy Thomas Darby might be worth chancing. His first attempt at a chasing career was aborted after two tries but he jumped really nicely when winning a handicap at Ayr last time out off 145. This lad finished 3rd in a G1 hurdle here back in 2021, he finished 4th in the same race last year so he likes the track and he’s a fresh horse having swerved Cheltenham. He hasn’t a huge amount to find on the figures either so at 28/1, a small e/w interest is advised.
2023 Aintree Festival Friday Tip: Thomas Darby e/w @ 28/1
2.20 – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier)
Buddy One almost saved Cheltenham for us but he swerved his chance away after the final hurdle. He should go well again here but at slightly bigger odds, I’ll take a chance on Harbour Lake. This 7yo son of Shantou is trained by Alan King and Tom Cannon takes the ride. He has won four of his nine starts, the last win coming on his seasonal comeback at Market Rasen off 130 in October.
Since then, he has held his form pretty well, bar a blip at Kempton in January. Back in December he had his first run at this track (20f gd/sft) and he ran a cracker behind a horse we backed to win, Romeo Brown. King’s charge was beat 5.5L into 4th and that form has worked out well. The runner up was Benson off 125 and he won his next two, including the Morebattle at Kelso off 134 and he’s now rated 139.
Walking On Air was 0.75L ahead of Harbour Lake in 3rd off 132 and he has since won off 133 and then ran a cracker at Cheltenham off 139. The fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth all won races subsequently so you would hope that off 2lbs lower than he was on his last Aintree visit, Harbour Lake can run another big race. Tom Cannon has ridden for three of his four wins and he’s back on board today, another plus. Trip and ground both look ideal so at 20/1, Harbour Lake is the e/w selection.
2023 Aintree Festival Friday Tip: Harbour Lake e/w @ 20/1 NB (6 Places)
2.55 – Top Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
The one that might be a shade too big here is Olly Murphy’s 6yo, Strong Leader. By Passing Glance, this horse rattled off a hat trick in his first three runs over timber. One of those wins came over this course and distance and he is the only runner in this contest that ticks that particular box. The three wins came on good or good to soft ground and when he ran in the Supreme at Cheltenham, it was proper soft ground.
Unfortunately, that didn’t suit Murphy’s horse and he could only manage 9th, 12.5L behind the winner Marine Nationale. He still managed to finish well ahead of Tahmuras (12/1 here) and he wasn’t that far behind Il Etait Temps who finished 4th (3.5L).
He has around 6L to find with Inthepocket on that Cheltenham form and he may well close that gap markedly on this ground and at this track. Found A Fifty is another obvious danger but he is just 4/1, like Inthepocket, and Strong Leader is 16s. At the prices, an each way interest on Strong Leader is advised.
2023 Aintree Festival Friday Tip: Strong Leader e/w @ 16/1 NAP (4 places)
3.30 – Marsh Chase (Grade 1)
Joseph O’Brien landed a G1 Novice with Banbridge yesterday and he’ll be hoping former C&D winner Fakir D’oudairies can do the same today. This 8yo did run very disappointingly when last seen at Ascot though and he has now won just one of his last four starts. The three defeats were by a combined distance of 57 lengths so it is no surprise to see connections reaching for the first time cheekpieces. His form figures at Aintree in G1s read 211 and he is 2/2 over this C&D. He was in better form before those two wins though and he might be worth opposing here.
Usually, I avoid backing horses that have run at Cheltenham but 7/1 about Hitman looks too big. I was gutted with his run in the King George but at least connections found out for sure that 24f was too far for him on his next start at Newbury. It was a lot more like it at Cheltenham last time when he ran a super race in the Ryanair, finishing a neck behind Shishkin and a couple of lengths ahead of French Dynamite.
Course Form
Last year, he found just Fakir too good in this race and he ran another blinder carrying a welter burden in a G2 handicap here back in October. Both those runs came on good to soft and he gets similar conditions today. Harry Cobden abandoned ship to ride Saint Calvados in this race last season instead of Hitman, and he has done the same today with Pic D’Orhy. However, Lorcan Williams is a more than able deputy.
Unlike Cobden, I’m keeping the faith with the 7yo son of Falco as I think he should be closer to 7/2 than the 15/2 he currently is right now. With just seven runners and two places for e/w players, I’m going to recommend a small win bet on Hitman. If he can repeat the form he showed in the Ryanair, it might just be enough for him to get his first G1 Chase win.
2023 Aintree Festival Friday Tip: Hitman win @ 15/2
4.05 – Topham Handicap Chase (Class 2)
29 runners, 21 furlongs and 18 fences. This mini Grand National is always an enjoyable spectacle and you never know, there might be a future winner of the big one lurking in the field. I like backing horses that race prominently in huge fields like this because hold up sorts require a huge amount of luck, especially jumping these fences. The one I’ll take a chance on at a price is Gin On Lime for De Bromhead and Darragh O’Keefe.
Rachael Blackmore has abandoned her for Upping The Anti after she unseated on Gin On Lime in the X-Country at Cheltenham. She had her mount under heavy restraint, strangely for a front runner, and he unshipped her at the second fence. The mare ran on loose for a couple of fences and she actually jumped the Grand National replica fence well without a rider on her back.
Bowl Along
De Bromhead is sure to have done plenty of schooling with Gin On Lime in the last few weeks and hopefully, O’Keefe lets her bowl along in front, just like she has been ridden for her four chase wins. Her sole handicap chase run to date came in the Kerry National back in September and she ran a decent race to finish 4th off 143.
The 3 mile trip probably stretched her stamina that day and today’s distance should be much more to her liking. Hopefully O’Keefe can get her into a good posi early and if he does, Gin On Lime could outrun her odds of 40/1.
2023 Aintree Festival Friday Tip: Gin On Lime e/w @ 40/1 (6 Places)
4.40 – Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
A fascinating and wide open G1 Novice Hurdle and you could make a solid case for at least half a dozen. One horse in here that owes us nothing is Hurricane Bay. We have backed Lucy Wadham’s son of Malinas twice at big odds this term and he hasn’t disappointed. We were on at Wetherby (19.5f gd/sft) in October when he was beat a neck in a Novice at 20/1 and we also backed him on his first attempt in G2 company at Doncaster (24f gd) when he finished 3rd of 10 at 16/1 behind Maximilian.
Wadham has freshened her charge up after a facile novice hurdle win at Doncaster in late February. As we saw at Wetherby, this horse goes well fresh and Bryony Frost has a fine record on him (form figures: 211 this season).
The two horses that beat him at Doncaster, Maximilian and Stay Away Fay, reoppose here but it wasn’t Nico De Boinville’s finest ride that day and he could have finished closer to those two rivals. A mark of 135 leaves him with a bit to find with the market leaders but I think he’ll end up rated higher than that and at 18/1, Hurricane Bay is the e/w selection.
