2023 Aintree Festival Thursday Preview & Tips – DS
2023 Aintree Festival Thursday Preview
After a very ordinary start to the Easter bank holiday weekend, Fairyhouse saved the day. On Monday we backed three horses at 28/1 (NB), 16/1 (NAP) and 40/1 and all three placed. Let’s hope that Dave Stevos can keep the momentum going on Merseyside, check out his 2023 Aintree Festival Thursday tips below.
1.45 – Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
Just five runners, but I still think that the 16/1 about Visionarian is worth taking. We have backed Peter Fahey’s horse twice already this season. On the first occasion he ran a mighty race on St Stephens’ Day at Leopardstown. Ridden prominently by Keith Donoghue, he jumped extremely well and coming to the last, it looked like he might nick it. However, Saint Roi timed his challenge perfectly and he took the win by just over 2L.
I was hopeful of a similar sort of performance at the Dublin Racing Festival in February. This time, Visionarian never landed a blow and he was beaten after a few furlongs. I can’t believe that was his true running and he is much better judged on his previous four runs.
The bit of ease in the ground will suit him a lot better than Banbridge and he hasn’t a lot to find to beat Saint Roi. Stage Star rates an obvious danger but he did have a hard race at Cheltenham. With Peter Fahey’s horses in flying form, Visionarian is worth backing e/w at odds of 16/1.
2023 Aintree Festival Thursday Tip: Visionarian e/w @ 16/1 NAP
2.20 – Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)
A very tricky contest for the 4yos and 11 are due to go to post. Zenta is the 13/8 fav after his excellent run behind Lossiemouth at Cheltenham. I’d usually be wary of backing horses that turn up here after running big races at Cheltenham as it is hard to peak twice within the space of three or four weeks. If Zenta does manage to hit the same heights as he did in March, he’ll undoubtedly be hard to beat but at the prices, he is worth taking on.
Rightsotom also ran at Cheltenham but unlike the favourite, he was having his first run after 129 days off so he should come on plenty for the run. It was only the second start of his career and he ran very respectably to finish 6th of 15, 20L behind the winner and 17.5L behind Zenta. Previously he chased home Zarak The Brave on his first ever run at Fairyhouse and that horse got to within 4L of Lossiemouth at the same track on his next run.
On all those formlines Rightsotom does have a fair chunk to find with Zenta. However, he is closely matched with Nusret who finished 16.5L behind Lossiemouth at Leopardstown at Xmas. Danny Mullins returns to the plate and Tom Mullins has 2 winners and three top 4 finishes from just 15 previous Aintree runners. Winning might be too big an ask but hopefully Rightsotom can stay on late to reward each way support at odds of 33/1.
2023 Aintree Festival Thursday Tip: Rightsotom e/w @ 33/1
2.55 – Aintree Bowl Chase (Grade 1)
Just six runners but this is still an intriguing little race. All six horses ran at Cheltenham with varying degrees of success. GA Law ran a very respectable race over 20f in the Ryanair, finishing just under 7L behind the runner up Shishkin in 5th. He had horses of the calibre of Janidil and Chacun Pour Soi well behind and given how well he finished off his race, this step up to 25f could see him finish a lot closer to the principals.
Shishkin re-opposes here on his first ever try at this distance. He did stay on well up the hill at Cheltenham and it was encouraging to see him running his second good race in a row. Will he stay this far? We won’t know until he goes and does it but he’s related to a couple of winners over this far and he’s by a Cheltenham Gold Cup winning sire so the chances are, he’ll get the trip. Obvious claims if in the same form as he was at Cheltenham.
Impossible To Fancy
On recent form, A Plus Tard is impossible to fancy. Since winning the 2022 Gold Cup he has pulled up twice and he has massive questions to answer now. In his defence, soft ground hasn’t been ideal for him and if any trainer is capable of bringing one back to form it is Henry De Bromhead. However, how this horse is priced up at 4/1 after his two runs this season is beyond me and there isn’t a chance you could bet him with any confidence.
Ahoy Senor fell at Cheltenham after setting the pace. Who knows where he would have finished had he stood up but at least he came out of the race unscathed. Lucinda Russell’s charge now returns to the scene of his two Grade 1 wins and given his liking for this track, he has to rate as a danger to all. In 2021 he hammered Bravemansgame here over hurdles and it was a similar story last year over fences. Of those at the head of the market, he looks most overpriced at 11/2.
Interesting Booking
Keith Donoghue gets the leg up on Gold Cup 3rd Conflated here. He is an interesting booking for the G1 Savills Chase winner at Leopardstown back in December. It looked like 26f at Cheltenham was too far for this horse and connections will be hoping he sees his race out better over a furlong shorter on this flatter track. He ran a blinder to finish a length 2nd behind Clan Des Obeaux in this race last year but this looks a stronger renewal.
Bravemansgame heads the market after his superb Gold Cup run. He did absolutely nothing wrong, he just bumped into an absolute monster in Galopin Des Champs. To be honest, I thought he’d be shorter for this race but perhaps the fact he is 0/2 at Aintree has tempered punters’ expectations. There is no doubt he had a hard race at Cheltenham too and while he is arguably the best horse in the race, the best horse doesn’t always win.
Take A Chance
At massive odds, I’m going to take a chance on Ga Law. Jamie Snowden’s charge ran well over 20f here in October and he shaped like this sort of trip would suit that day. He was in the process of running huge on his first try over 24f at Doncaster when falling at the last and his run at Cheltenham last time was a career best. He looks to be crying out for this sort of distance and if he can brush up on his jumping, Ga Law can hopefully outrun his odds of 40/1.
2023 Aintree Festival Thursday Tip: Ga Law e/w @ 40/1
3.30 – Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1)
If Constitution Hill stands up, he wins. It really is that simple. I’d love to see the old boy Sharjah run well but this is a no bet race. Onto the next one…
2023 Aintree Festival Thursday Tip: No bet
4.05 – Foxhunters Open Hunters’ Chase (Class 2)
Coastal Tiep is a horse with unfinished business in this race. The Crawfords had a lovely winner at Fairyhouse last week and I’ve been waiting to see this horse back at Aintree for some time. I was at the track when he ran here back in 2019 and I was stupid enough to back him on course rather than online for extra places (never mix drinking and betting!). From a very unpromising early position he made up heaps of ground in the final circuit and he stayed on well to finish 4th of 27, 17L behind the winner but only 4L off 3rd.
The son of Coastal Path hasn’t got back racing here since, until today. He must have had some injury issues because he was off the track for almost two years after a P2P 2nd at Kirkistown. Since coming back in October of last year he has run two decent races behind Vaucelet. First time up he was beat 0.5L by that horse in a P2P at Portrush and then he finished 7.25L behind the same horse in a Hunters Chase at Down Royal (24f sft).
He did run poorly at Thurles last time but I’m willing to put a line through that. My hope is that his three runs this season have all been geared towards prepping him for a repeat bid in this contest and BG Crawford is back on board for the first time since his comeback run at Portrush. The fact he is on Coastal Tiep rather Dorking Cock (rated 132) suggests he is the yard’s main hope and at 33/1, hopefully he can repeat what he did in 2019.
2023 Aintree Festival Thursday Tip: Coastal Tiep e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)
4.40 – Red Rum Handicap Chase (Premier)
Dancing On My Own, our e/w bet for the Grand Annual, pitches up here instead. Unfortunately, he isn’t 40/1 today. Rachael Blackmore takes the ride and he is only 3lbs higher than when running a massive race in this last season. He’s had two runs going right handed this season, which doesn’t suit, and he has surely been trained for this race again.
However, if there is a lot of rain it won’t suit him and looking at the forecast, it could turn soft by the time of this race. That would be a big worry and at just 15/2, I’ll pass on him today.
Bigger Odds
At much bigger odds, maybe Mackenberg can go well for Donald McCain and Brian Hughes. This lad is a prolific winner over fences. He has won five of his eight chase starts and he has only finished outside the first three once. He won his first two starts of this season at Ayr (16.5f gd/sft) off 137 and then he followed up over 19f at Doncaster off 140.
McCain gave him two months off after that win and since coming back in January he has had three runs. He ran ok behind Malystic over 16f at Doncaster on his return before a rare below par effort at Warwick over 20f. However, it was much more like it last time when beat 2.25L by Calico and Pay The Piper back at Doncaster and he is 2lbs better off with the Hamilton horse here. He races off his last winning mark and while this is a stronger race, Mackenberg looks too big a price at odds of 25/1.
