2023 All Weather Championships Preview – DS
2023 All Weather Championships Preview
We backed a couple of longshots for the Aintree Grand National this week. Check out that preview here. On a weekend packed with sporting action, James Punt has also penned a Masters Preview. A marathon few days of racing lies ahead too, starting with the 2023 All Weather Championships at Newcastle and Lingfield. Dave Stevos has a few e/w fancies, see who he is backing below.
1.50 Newcastle – 3yo Championships (Class 2)
The 3yos are first up at Newcastle and the trip is 6f. Three of the ten runners are rated 100+ with a 6lb gap back to the rest. So, on paper, it should be between the top trio but the 94 rated Shaquille is second best in the betting at 7/2 behind the 9/4 fav Shouldvebeenaring. The Camacho colt is 3/4, winning twice at York and adding a Wolverhampton Novice in December. His sole blip came on his second run when he was far too keen in a York G3. The form of that Wolves win is decent and it would be no surprise to see him and the Hannon horse fighting out the finish.
At bigger odds, maybe the 77 rated Hello Queen could take another big step forward. Trained by Kevin Ryan, this daughter of Acclamation has won her last two. She ran well when 4th over 5f here on debut and she made that experience count next time when upped to 6f at Wolverhampton. Last time out she gave 2lbs and a half length beating to Alpha Zulu in a C&D novice and the runner up has since landed a Kempton novice.
There isn’t anything flashy about this filly. She had to knuckle down for her two wins but on both occasions, it looked like there could be more in the tank. She is bred to be better than a 77 horse being out of a Listed winner and by a top sire in Acclamation. The top two in the market could be hard to beat but at 14/1, hopefully Hello Queen can nick a bit of e/w money.
2023 All Weather Championships Tip: Hello Queen e/w @ 14/1
2.25 Newcastle – Marathon All Weather Championships Stakes (Class 2)
The one that looks massively overpriced here is the rag, Aced It. Trained by Camilla Poulton, this 7yo son of Lope De Vega has had a decent winter campaign. He won at Kempton in January (16f) off 85 but it was his run in a similar contest to this at Kempton that makes him of interest.
In that class 2 conditions race he came up against today’s 2/1 favourite, Berkshire Rocco. Unlike that rival, he was denied a clear run repeatedly in the home straight yet there was only 1.5L separating them at the finish. He dead heated with Earlofthecotswolds in 4th and Rainbow Dreamer, 10/1 today, was 1.5L behind Aced It back in 7th.
This horse stays all day, he just doesn’t have a turn of foot. So, I am hoping that they go a decent clip and that the stiff finish at Newcastle brings stamina to the fore. There’s four horses in here that could potentially force a fast pace and if that happens, hopefully Aced It can stay on late for a place at odds of 40/1.
2023 All Weather Championships Tip: Aced It e/w @ 40/1 NB
2.40 Lingfield – Vase Mile Handicap (Class 2)
The jockey of the moment, Billy Loughnane, rides an interesting one for Johnny Murtagh here. However, the Irish raider has landed a wide draw in stall 11 and he has gone up 5lbs for his last three runs despite failing to win. The market leader is Brewing for Moore and Haggas. He is 3/3 but the son of Showcasing didn’t look straightforward at Newcastle last time and I’d worry about his relative lack of experience and also the fact that he hasn’t run for 108 days.
The TXODDS silks will be in action here and On A Session looks well overpriced at 16/1. This son of Noble Mission is a rock solid horse on his day and it looks like Nicola Barron has earmarked this race for the 7yo. Last season he ran a blinder in this off 89 when beat less than a length into 2nd. That excellent run provided the springboard for a superb season which saw him run big in the Thirsk Hunt Cup, at the Epsom Derby Meeting and then winning at Musselburgh off 89.
Big Galway Run
A huge run at the Galway Festival followed off 93 when chasing home Current Option, and that saw his mark hiked to 96. Barron’s charge then ran respectably on his final three runs before finishing up for a winter holiday.
He has run three decent races since returning from his break and he ran better than his finishing position suggests last time as he missed the break. The handicapper has dropped him to 86, 3lbs lower than when 2nd in this last year and 7lbs lower than he was for Galway. This horse is a battle hardened, well treated, classy handicapper and he has a lovely draw in stall 5. Once he gets away on level terms, he is capable of running a massive race at odds of 16/1.
2023 All Weather Championships Tip: On A Session e/w @ 16/1 (4 places) NAP
3.00 Newcastle – All Weather Middle Distance Championships (Class 2)
Just six runners and with no extra places on offer, I’m happy to sit this out. No bet.
2023 All Weather Championships Tip: No Bet
3.15 Lingfield – Vase Sprint Handicap (Class 2)
If Epsom Faithfull can reproduce the form she showed when a fast finishing 5th on her last start over this C&D, she could go very close off a mark of 87. The top weight is trained by Pat Phelan and Rhys Clutterbuck takes the ride. She is drawn in stall 11 today which is far from ideal but there should be a fair bit of early pace on here so hopefully she can slot in and get a half decent position.
She has disappointed the last twice, in a 7f handicap and a 5f Listed heat, both at Lingfield. However, those runs came pretty quickly after her return from six months off and it is a plus that Phelan has given her a 41 day break as she goes well when fresh.
Her C&D form figures read 3325 with the 5th coming in that Listed heat here in February (beat 1.5L). She was close up behind horses rated 108, 106 and 109 and she had five 94+ rated horses behind her. The first time cheekpieces are an interesting addition and her trainer has had a winner and a place with his last two runners. Luck will be required from her draw but if she breaks well and gets the gaps, Epsom Faithfull can outrun her odds of 20/1.
2023 All Weather Championships Tip: Epsom Faithfull e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)
3.35 Newcastle – All Weather Mile Championships (Class 2)
Another six runner affair with no extra places to be found. You could make a case for most of them but nothing is priced up longer than 14/1 so it is an easy race to swerve. No bet.
2023 All Weather Championships Tip: No Bet
3.50 Lingfield – Vase Middle Distance Handicap (Class 2)
Another very competitive looking handicap, this time over 10f. As the betting suggests, it is absolutely wide open and a case can be made for plenty. Billy Loughnane’s 5lbs claim isn’t going to last for long and he could fire in another winner here for his Dad. Precision Storm has been knocking on the door this year and Billy’s 5lb claim could make the difference.
In February this son of Dragon Pulse was beat 0.5L by War In Heaven at Wolverhampton off a mark of 83. Last time, at the same track, he went down by 1.5L over 8.5f off 84. The assessor put him back up to 85 for that run but with his jockey’s claim, he effectively races off 80.
Precision Storm ran in this race last year but he never got a clear run. Dropped out in rear early, he was still full of running turning for home but his jockey tried to go the brave man’s route up the inner and the door was slammed shut in his face. Given his hold up style, a degree of luck will be needed but Billy Loughnane seems to have a knack of finding gaps when he needs them and at odds of 16/1, hopefully he gets a clear run on Precision Storm.
2023 All Weather Championships Tip: Precision Storm e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)
4.10 Newcastle – Fillies and Mares Championships (Class 2)
Even with just seven runners here, odds of 16/1 about Aramis Grey are too big to turn down. This consistent filly has finished out of the first two just once in her last eight starts. Trained by Rae Guest, it is difficult to work out why she is such a big price.
Last time out she put Vadream in her place at Lingfield and we all saw how that form worked out at the weekend. Previous to that she ran a blinder behind Annaf when beat 2L into 2nd over 6f. The winner is rated 108 now and she had two 100+ rated horses behind her.
Three runs back she was beat just 0.75L by Manaafith at Southwell over 7f off level weights. They meet again on identical terms yet the Varian horse is 5/4 and the Guest horse is 16s. I wouldn’t put it past her to turn that form around but even if she repeated it, surely she has serious place claims here. Rae Guest has had 14 winners and 20 top 4 finishers from just 78 runners at Newcastle, hopefully he can improve on that excellent record with Aramis Grey at odds of 16/1.
2023 All Weather Championships Tip: Aramis Grey e/w @ 16/1
4.45 Newcastle – Sprint Championships (Class 2)
Vadream did us a big favour at Doncaster last week. However, the main angle for betting her there was the testing ground and she isn’t as good on the all-weather. Now, she still might be good enough to win this and we know she is in top form but she is only 11/2 today so it is worth looking elsewhere for some e/w value.
At a monster price, maybe the old boy Venturous can sneak into the frame. He was beat 3L in this race last season and his last win in March 2022 came over today’s C&D. He is a hold up sort who likes to aim at a strong pace and I am hoping the likes of Witch Hunter, Exalted Angel and maybe even Mums Tipple take them along at a decent clip from the outset in this 6f contest.
Nicola Barron has been running this horse over 5f this Winter and he showed on his penultimate start here that there was life in the old dog yet. He admittedly disappointed on his last start but the race probably wasn’t run to suit. He is a five time course winner so clearly this track suits and he’s only been beaten further than 3L twice in twelve previous visits to Tyneside. Maybe his best days are behind him but even so, with four places on offer, a small e/w interest on Venturous is advised at odds of 33/1.
