2023 Ascot and Newmarket Saturday Tips – DS
2023 Ascot and Newmarket Saturday Tips
Our barren run was finally ended with a place for Get Ahead at Longchamp. However, overall it has been a torrid couple of weeks. Spells like this are inevitable when trying to find winning long shots but that doesn’t make these dry spells any easier to handle. The only thing to do is to stick to the plan and we’ll eventually get back amongst the winners. Hopefully the tide turns this weekend, 2023 Ascot and Newmarket Saturday tips are below.
1.30 Newmarket – Premier Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2)
Twenty degrees, dry conditions and good ground. Yes, it is October in the UK, believe it or not. It is great to have such nice weather but it makes things trickier from a punting perspective at this time of the year. A lot of horses would have been trained this season in the hope of getting soft ground at the backend but the weather gods have had other ideas.
Red Danielle, for example, ran her best race on easy ground in mid-July at Newbury (10f gd/sft). After a facile win in a Mickey Mouse race in mid-August, Roger Varian gave her a couple of months off, presumably to return for easier conditions. The daughter of Sea The Moon is undoubtedly a talented filly, you’d just fear that she is going to be a much better horse on softer ground.
Ground to Suit
One filly who’ll be happy that the rain has stayed away is Crystallium. Trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam, this daughter of Expert Eye is 1/8 in her career so far. That win came over 7f at Newbury last September (gd) and her career best turf runs have come on nice ground.
Her finest effort to date came on her penultimate run at Sandown. In that Listed heat (8f gd) she was dropped out in rear. Saffie Osborne started pushing at the 3f pole and it looked like she was going nowhere. However, a furlong out she really began to hit top gear and she flew home for fourth, beat just 1.25l for the win and a head off third.
On that evidence this 10f trip is worth another go. She tried it before at Goodwood but she was a bit slow away and not every horse handles that track. She now drops into handicap company for the first time and on that Sandown run, she could be well treated off 93 with her jockey taking off another 5lbs. Crystallium definitely isn’t one for max stakes but if she repeats that Sandown form and stays the trip, she could outrun her odds of 20/1.
2023 Ascot and Newmarket Saturday Tips: Crystallium e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)
1.50 Ascot – Blue Eagle Rous Stakes (Listed)
Emaraaty Ana is the class act in this Listed Sprint with a rating of 111. Kevin Ryan’s admirable son of Shamardal is usually very reliable and always seems to run well without winning. He has managed to get himself beaten in Listed company the last twice but he bumped into some quality animals.
Connections are likely using this as a stepping stone towards a repeat bid in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He should win it on paper but racing isn’t always that simple.
Drying Ground
At massive odds, Rum Cocktail is worth giving one last chance to in Listed company with the drying ground in her favour. Ed Walker’s daughter of Muhaarar was ultra impressive when winning a handicap by 6.5L off 78 at Yarmouth (5f gd/fm). She stepped up into Listed company the next twice but she didn’t enjoy the easy ground at York and Ayr.
This 4yo filly has won three of her fifteen starts, two wins on gd/fm and one on good. Her career form figures on good or quicker read 130252612431 and on good to soft they read 077. She has run once at Ascot, on her first run of 2023 with Tom Marquand on board, and she ran a blinder behind Spoof to finish 3rd.
Quite a few of her rivals today would prefer cut in the ground and bar the fav, they don’t look an especially talented bunch. Tom Marquand is 9/52 with 14 top 4s for this owner and 46/306 with 108 top 4s for Ed Walker. His mission will be to try and sneak some black type for Rum Cocktail and at 50/1, it is worth chancing that he does.
2023 Ascot and Newmarket Saturday Tips: Rum Cocktail e/w @ 50/1
2.05 Newmarket – £150k Tattersalls October Auction Stakes (Class 2)
Ah yes, another sales race. No doubt I will extend my woeful run in these type of races. To be fair, in the last big sales race at Doncaster our selection Grey Cuban was denied a clear run and finished just 2L off 5th so maybe our luck is about to turn.
Zolou Chief is rated 91 and he looks by far the most likely winner for Heather Main and Gina Mangan. However, at much bigger odds, maybe Cuban Slide can surprise with a big run for Karl Burke. Burke has never won this race but he has had plenty run well in it before.
Solid Race Record
In five of the eight renewals he has had horses finish in the first five. Seduce Me was 4th in 2016, Praxidice 5th in 2018, Gift List 2nd in 2020, Favourite Child 3rd in 2021 and Georgiava was 4th in 2022. This year he relies upon Cuban Slide, a 75 rated son of Havana Grey.
His sole win came on debut at Musselburgh where he won a Novice by 9L. Since then he hasn’t showed much but on the plus side, one of his better efforts came in a £100k sales race on the July course here in August. 7f on soft ground didn’t suit last time out at Doncaster and this test should suit him better.
There is no doubt he has to improve on what he has shown in recent runs but the application of a first time visor is an interesting move. Kevin Stott is 3/11 for Burke with two further places and he gets the leg up on Cuban Slide for the first time today. Another one that isn’t for maximum stakes but at 50s, a small e/w interest is advised.
2023 Ascot and Newmarket Saturday Tips: Cuban Slide e/w @ 50/1 (4 places)
2.25 Ascot – Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3)
Eight run in this 12f G3 but it is not really a betting race for me. It is hard to make a strong case for any of the outsiders and the top two or three in the market look a class apart. Al Aasy is 5/4 and should win but this is a race I do not have a strong opinion on. No bet.
2023 Ascot and Newmarket Saturday Tips: No Bet
2.45 Redcar – Two Year Old Trophy (Listed)
Now back in trip and returned to faster ground, I’m giving Balon D’Or another chance here. We backed this lad at big odds at York and he just about hung on for place money (7f gd/fm). His best effort to date came in the Class 2 Woodcote Stakes at Epsom (6f gd/fm) in June where he found just Bobsleigh too good.
Since then the only time he has had fast ground and 6f he finished 6th, beat 5L, in a Listed heat at Newbury. Two of his last three runs have come on soft, his excellent York effort on good to firm sandwiched between those below par showings.
Ben Curtis retains the ride and he was on board when this fella was 4th in a Chantilly G3 back in mid June. Ten of the last fourteen winners have been drawn in 6 or higher so stall 7 should be fine and if he can rediscover the form he showed at Epsom earlier this season, Balon D’Or can outrun his odds of 28/1.
2023 Ascot and Newmarket Saturday Tips: Balon D’Or e/w @ 28/1
3.00 Ascot – Bengough Stakes (Group 3)
Commanche Falls and Annaf, two friends of the blog, head the market for this G3 sprint. Unfortunately, the days of those two being sent off at 25s or bigger are long gone. Commanche is now rated 113 and he is going for his second G3 win of the season. Annaf won the Portland off 106 last time and he could give the Dods horse something to think about in receipt of 3lbs.
Of those at bigger odds, Rumstar is capable of sneaking into the frame if on a going day. Jonny Portman’s 3yo ran huge on his last visit to Ascot, beat just 2.5L by Shaquille in the Commonwealth. He was then beat just 1.75l by Commanche Falls in a Newbury G3 on his next start.
His last two runs have not gone to plan but he came good in October last season and perhaps this is his time of year. If he can repeat the level of form he showed when running so well in the Commonwealth, Rumstar is no 14/1 shot. At the prices, he is the e/w selection.
2023 Ascot and Newmarket Saturday Tips: Rumstar e/w @ 14/1
3.15 Newmarket – Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1)
We have backed Random Harvest already this season. She ran a cracker when placed behind Rogue Millenium at 22/1 in the G2 Duke Of Cambridge at the Royal Meeting at Ascot and she got her head in front at Ascot in a G3 back in July. Since then she came up short in a Goodwood G2 but soft ground was probably not much use to her.
Today’s conditions should suit better. She has run well on two of her three previous visits to Newmarket on the Rowley course, 3rd in a handicap in 2021 and 4th in a Listed race last year (8f gd). Her last run on the Rowley course was poor but that came over 9f on soft.
Obviously, Inspiral (rated 118) and Mqse de Sevigne (rated 117) are the ones to beat here. However, there is very little between the remainder on the figures and Random Harvest is well in the mix with a rating of 107.
Quite a few of the fancied horses are hold up sorts so Saffie Osborne might just be able to poach an easy lead. If she does, Random Harvest should run another big race and at 33/1, it is worth chancing that she can hold on for a place.
2023 Ascot and Newmarket Saturday Tips: Random Harvest e/w @ 33/1 NB
3.35 Ascot – Howden Challenge Cup Handicap (Heritage)
Our final live race of the day on ITV4 is a 7f heritage handicap. 18 are due to run and as the betting indicates, it is wide open. Last year’s winner Escobar is back for a repeat bid off 13lbs lower and even though he’s been out of form, he cannot be discounted. He is one of five runners for David O’Meara and with no Danny Tudhope involved, it is pointless trying to work out who is the number one hope via jockey bookings.
Our old pal Ropey Guest is due a good run if his form figures are anything to go by. He has racked up a sequence of 0102010 but all the 0s have come at Ascot. He has run well here plenty of times in the past but it seems that Chubby saves his best for other tracks now. He’s on a tough mark right now too so I’m going to look elsewhere.
Old Boy
The old boy Bless Him has shaped as though he has another big day in him a couple of times this season. Last time out at Newmarket (7f gd/fm) he ran well despite being given an extremely interesting ride by Kieran Shoemark. He was motionless on the 9yo until around the 2f pole and he didn’t really make a full effort at any time in the race.
On his last Ascot outing the race wasn’t run to suit Bless Him but he ran on really well in the closing stages for 7th, 5L behind the all the way winner Quinault but only 1L behind Mobashr in fifth. He had the likes of Orbaan, Ropey Guest and Escobar well behind.
C&D Winner
This son of Sea The Stars has won twice over a mile at Ascot, off 90 & 97. His last run over a mile at Ascot saw him run huge in 5th off 103 in this year’s Hunt Cup (0.5L off third). He was only beat 4.5L for the win that day and he is now in off 3lbs lower. His last two wins have come at 7f so today’s trip should be fine.
Bless Him is 5lbs better off with Popmaster and 8lbs better off with Quinault on that last Ascot run and granted luck in running and a proper end to end gallop, Simcock’s charge can go very close at odds of 20/1.
