2023 Australian GP Betting Preview

It was a mixed bag for James Punt at the Saudi GP but at least we managed to find Sergio Perez in our raceday update. Now the focus switches Down Under, check out James’ 2023 Australian GP Betting preview below.

2023 Australian GP

Going into race three, the 2023 Australian GP, and already the two championships have been given to Red Bull, according to just about every pundit. It is a reasonable assumption given that their race pace is around one second faster than the next best car. Red Bull have improved on the best car of 2022, while the opposition have by and large gone backwards in relative terms.

Aston Martin have made a big step, but a big step from a long way back. Ferrari have stagnated, Mercedes are stuck in the 2022 rut and are now going back to the drawing board. Alpine have dropped the ball, McLaren have fallen off a cliff with Alpha Tauri following them. Williams have improved but from the lowest base and Alfa Romeo are treading water.

Cost Cap

Red Bull have done a great job over the winter, as have Aston Martin, but the rest have let themselves down. Red Bull are constrained by the cost cap rules and the success handicap in terms of wind tunnel and CAD time allowance, but they hit the ground running so fast that they should have the titles wrapped up very early, allowing them to move on to next season’s car. The only realistic threat is that the sports owners ‘do a Bernie’ and change the rules mid-season in an attempt to ‘improve the show’.

The Track

For this weekend’s action the circus heads down under and Melbourne for what used to be the season opener at Melbourne’s Albert Park circuit. The track was resurfaced and corners reprofiled for last year’s race and it is now a faster, more flowing layout and a bit less of the old point and squirt track.

The Albert Park circuit is called a street circuit and it does use some sections of public road, but it is not a ‘proper’ street circuit like Jeddah, or Baku, or Monaco and so on. It is more of a hybrid of a street circuit and a traditional racetrack.

The track features fourteen corners, some fast and flowing but there are still some heavy braking and traction events in the slower ones. There were four DRS zones set for the 2022 race but that was reduced to three on safety grounds. Four zones are planned for this year’s race, but more of that later.

Pole No Guarantee

When this was the season opener the attrition rate was very high, but it was down to just three not classifieds last year. Pole position drivers have not thrived in the turbo hybrid era with two wins from the last seven races here. The other five have come from second place on the grid and two from third.  

In terms of demands, the track is not unlike Jeddah, not as fast, but the new track surface is similar, it features long, fast corners and if you went well in Saudi, you should be OK here.

2023 Australian GP: Driver Records

This, like Bahrain, is a track on which Max Verstappen has yet to win on. His third place in 2019 remains his best result, but I expect that to change this Sunday, reliability permitting. Perez was second last year, his best result here.

Lewis Hamilton has just the one win since 2014 and he has tended to struggle against his teammates in Melbourne. He was behind Russell last year, Bottas in 2019 and he lost out to Rosberg in 2016 and 2014. Button beat him in 2012 and 2010.

Alonso won here in 2006 but more recently, it hasn’t been a great track for him. Bottas has scored points here in all but his first race for Williams in 2013. Nico Hulkenberg has scored points in five of his seven starts.

Last year’s race was won from pole position by Charles Leclerc, who also set the fastest lap. Verstappen retired with a mechanical problem, with Perez finishing second and George Russell third.

The Weather

The weather forecast suggests that we may see some wet weather, or at least damp weather. Friday and Saturday are forecast to be cloudy and relatively cool at 15 -17 degrees. There is a chance of light drizzle both days, with the biggest chance of rain on Saturday for FP3. Sunday is expected to be sunny, dry and a little warmer at 20 degrees.

Form

The form from the first two races has sorted out the formbook to some degree, certainly at the front of the grid. Red Bull locked out the front row of the grid in Bahrain and were on course to do the same in Jeddah before Verstappen’s car developed a fault at the start of Q2, leaving him stuck in 15th place for the start of the race. Perez then took pole position by a relatively narrow margin.

The race was then a simple cruise and collect mission for the Red Bulls. It was only a matter of which one would win. Perez had the advantage of starting at the front but again lost out off the line and this time he was behind Alonso before the DRS kicked in and he was through and away.

Powerful DRS

Verstappen carved through the field, and he enjoyed the advantage of using DRS to make his passes. The DRS is particularly powerful on the Red Bull and on a track like Jeddah with its long flat out sections, it was not a drive of great skill, rather just using the machinery at his disposal.

Perez rarely got to use DRS as he was at the front of the pack, but he controlled the race and when Verstappen reached second place, he wasn’t able to make any great impression on his teammate as he could not get withing DRS range.

The other drivers were taken aback by the pace of the Red Bull, especially with the DRS open. Not all DRS’ are equal, and the Red Bull has the most efficient version. It has pretty much the most efficient everything, but the DRS was giving Verstappen 8-9 KMPH over the likes of the Aston Martin and Mercedes, two teams with the least efficient DRS. Aston Martin are expected to have a new rear wing for this weekend, designed to improve the efficiency of their DRS.

Track To Suit Red Bull

With four DRS zones in play this weekend, that looks like playing further to the strengths of the Red Bull. Other teams with efficient DRS systems are Haas and Williams. Last year the teams voted by majority to remove one of the DRS zones on safety grounds and I would not be surprised to see another attempt to reduce it to three, in a futile attempt to reign in Red Bull. It won’t work but could narrow the margin of victory.

Reliability is the only credible threat to another Red Bull win and a 1-2 finish.

Reliability Worries Aston Martin

Aston Martin are sitting in second place in the Constructors table, tied with Mercedes but ahead on podium finishes. They are already 41 points behind Red Bull, but in a tight fight with Mercedes and Ferrari.

Lance Stroll was forced to retire in Jeddah with an engine problem, so reliability is still a worry. That they are not great DRS wise may hurt them here, but we have to wait and see if the new rear wing addresses the issue. Otherwise, they should be second best here again and another podium is well within their grasp.

Mercedes are one team with rock solid reliability and like last year, it is keeping them well up the table without looking like being particularly competitive. Lewis Hamilton is struggling relative to George Russell, in qualifying at least.

Lack Of Downforce

Hamilton says it is a lack of rear end downforce which is making him uncomfortable with the car and this used to be a track where you needed a stable car under braking and out of the corners. He feels the new forward cockpit position impedes his feel for the car, but this is a built in part of the design, allowing the side impact protection system to fit with the zero pod design. The track isn’t quite the same lay out anymore, but there are corners here that he will not like if the car’s rear end is still not stable.

The team are sending out mixed messages which is not a good sign. After Bahrain it was all about binning the 2022 concept and changing the design. After Saudi Arabia it was about finding huge gains from what they have got. It seems you have some that want to turn the car around and take a new direction, others that still believe that they have a killer car, if they can just find the key.

The problem with that is that they have been looking for the key since the start of last season. It certainly is not the sure-footed team of a few years ago. Whatever it is, it will likely not be until we get back to Europe that they will start to introduce whatever changes they have planned. A podium is a possibility, but only if the other leading contenders have problems.

Faltering Ferrari

Ferrari are inspiring very little confidence. Their reliability is poor, tyre wear is poor and race pace is poor as a result. The qualifying pace is decent, second only to Red Bull, but the front tyres are going off very quickly in the race and then are vulnerable to Aston Martin and Mercedes. The tyres are going off even in clean air and given that they are racing in the pack, it gets worse in traffic.

In qualifying, the Ferrari’s front tyres are starting produce understeer and it will be interesting to see how they get on in sector three this weekend. Corners 11,12,13 and 14 will punish any understeer. The understeer problem can be fixed over time, but it means spending time and resources and they are very unlikely to close the gap by a big enough margin to actually compete with Red Bull.

Ferrari say they have upgrades waiting to put on the car, but they are holding back until they fully understand the problems affecting it. It looks like it will not be until Imola until they put the recovery plan in place. That is the sixth race of the season, over a quarter of the season late. And they think they could still be in the title fight. They must be on drugs.

Disappointing Alpine

Alpine have been disappointing in the first two races, less so in Jeddah, but they have scored just 8 points and are 30 points off Aston Martin and Mercedes. They did get both cars into Q3 in Jeddah but finished the race in 8th and 9th and over 50 seconds behind Perez.

They did go well here last year. Alonso was flying in Q2 but crashed out when looking to be right up there. Ocon qualified 8th and finished 7th. Alpine will be looking to join Ferrari, Aston Martin and Mercedes, but they still have some way to go. I still think they will be a team that makes steady progress, but they have started further back than expected.

After that, it is a bit of a bunfight amongst the remaining five teams. Alfa Romeo are in 6th place thanks to Bottas’ 8th place in Bahrain. That has always been a good track for him, and he has also gone well here in the past, and not just in a Mercedes. With reliability still not rock solid amongst the top teams, an opportunity may arise for him to get a point or two at the 2023 Australian GP.

Haas Showing Flashes

Haas have shown flashes of speed, especially for Hulkenberg, but they have scored just a single point. Their DRS looks more efficient that most, so a track with four DRS zones may help them get closer to another point. Something similar can be said for Williams. They scored a point here last year with Albon and they do look to have a better car relative to the opposition this year. Again, they would likely need some attrition ahead of them to score any points.

The two teams who are yet to score a point are McLaren and Alpha Tauri. McLaren have started having a clear out of the staff that designed this year’s car and hiring Ferrari refugees as a result. Out of the frying pan an into the fire?

McLaren Turmoil

They won’t have the car they designed ready until we get back to Europe and if it is going to be any good, why are they sacking the designers? It is said that these changes are not a result of this year’s car being crap but was part of a long term plan. Uhmm….

Yes, they have been on a recruitment drive for a while now, but was this part of the plan or a reaction to another bad start? A ‘B’ spec car is on the way, there will be a smaller upgrade for Baku, but the upgrade is not going to be the work of the new engineers and designers, that will come in the summer. Sounds like a dog’s dinner.

Alpha Tauri have a poor car, a rookie driver who is struggling and a ‘lead’ driver who isn’t really up to the job. They have had two 11th place finishes, so with more attrition they could have scored but the only positive thing to say about them is that they are not as bad as McLaren.

Summary

It must be said that the ante post selections have not gone well so far. Just one win from eight ante post selections is poor. Race day selections have fared better with four wins from seven selections. Overall, including qualifying bets, we have had 18 bets and just 5 winners. That leaves us 7.74 points in the red and suggests that I cut down on the ante post bets and leave most bets until Sunday’s race day update.

Max The Fav

Max Verstappen is the ante post favourite at 1.40 and given that he suffered with unreliability in Jeddah, the odds are about right. If he has a trouble free qualifying and race, he wins, most likely from pole.

Sergio Perez is the only other serious alternative. He is a 6.00 (win only) shot and while he may be subject to the same unreliability worries as Verstappen, he makes some appeal. The rest of the field need a double retirement for Red Bull if we are to see a different winner. That happened once last year, in the season opener. They only had one car finishing here last year and they are not quite nailed on for a 1-2 finish.

Three Podium Finishers

We have had just three podium finishers from the first two races, Verstappen, Perez and Alonso. George Russell briefly got his hands on the third place trophy in Jeddah after Alonso was handed a post-race penalty for his car being incorrectly placed in his grid box. This was later reversed on the grounds that the penalty was over the top. The grid boxes are now to be made wider to help drivers place the car within it. There was no competitive advantage gained by being not quite in the centre of the box.

If there is to be a new face on the 2023 podium it would seem likely to be Stroll or one of the two Mercedes drivers. Stroll is still not 100% fit but getting there, while Russell is the less unhappy driver at Mercedes. He took a different set up in Jeddah which Hamilton said would usually be wrong. Russell said he had worked hard to establish his best set up and was proved right. Again, they are not singing from the same hymn sheet at Mercedes, even in the cockpit.

Ferrari Lack Race Pace

Ferrari’s race pace is not yet good enough to be challenging for a podium on merit. Leclerc can make the car look decent in qualifying when tyre management is less critical, but do not be fooled by the fact that he was only 0.155 off Perez’ pole position time in Jeddah. Max Verstappen would very likely have been a few tenths faster had his Red Bull taken part in Q3. Come the race, the Ferrari is just burning its tyres, especially the hards, and they are miles away on race pace.

Alonso is 1.83 to make it three podiums in a row, and like Verstappen’s odds to win the race, they reflect his chances fairly accurately. The value bet in this market is Stroll. A 9.00 shot, he has the equipment to do the job.

However, Alonso is faster and Stroll needs his teammate to have some problem if he is to be the highest finishing Aston Martin. The fact that he is not fully fit is another negative but as a speculative, high risk value bet, he fits the bill. Russell took a podium here last year from 6th place on the grid, taking advantage of Verstappen’s demise.

Top Teams Usually Dominate

However, this is a race were by and large, the top three on the grid have finished on the podium in the turbo Hybrid era. I am not in the mood for more speculative, high risk bets that lose.

The top 6 market is another uncompetitive one. If we have good reliability the top six gets filled by Red Bull, Aston Martin and a mix of Mercedes and Ferrari, Most likely Mercedes. Could anyone crash the top 6 party? Perhaps Alpine could, but the truth is that they have been way off even the top 6 so far.

Does the top 10 offer any hope of a decent priced return? You’ve guessed it. No. The top 10 will very likely be filled by Red Bull, Aston Martin, Mercedes, Ferrari and Alpine. All ten drivers from those five teams are short odds on. However, attrition might leave a vacancy or two to be filled. So far, we have had Bottas finishing 8th in Bahrain, Albon 10th in Bahrain and Magnussen 10th in Saudi Arabia. Tsunoda has had back-to-back 11th places.

Bottas Goes Well Here

Bottas had a great track record in Bahrain, and he landed us a 2 point bet for his top 10 there. The Finn counts Australia as his second home, hence him sporting the Aussie Rules mullet and tash. He also has a good track record at Albert Park.

He finished 14th on debut in the Williams Renault in 2014 and didn’t start after injuring his back in 2016. Other than that he has finished in the top 8 in his remaining six starts, including 8th for Alfa Romeo last year and 8th for Williams in 2016. The Alfa was not great, no, it was poor in Jeddah, and its performance in the faster corners is questionable. Bottas is 3.00 to finish in the top 10 and that may be the only odds against bet worth staking ante post.

McLaren did get Oscar Piastri into Q3 in Jeddah, but he got bumped on the first lap and that was effectively his race done. With a bit more luck could he have finished in the points? Hard to say, but McLaren do not fill me with confidence right now.

2023 Australian GP: Ante Post Selections

So that’s it. The main markets are just reflecting the blindingly obvious. Value is thin on the ground to non-existent.

There is one side market with one firm who may not be keen to take a bet, but the odds look to have a little bit of value.

Unibet have Alonso to win Group 1, which consists of the two Aston Martins, Mercedes and Ferraris. Effectively this is much like the podium finish market where he is a best priced 1.83. Alonso is 2.25 to win this group.

The same firm also go 2.20 for a double points finish for Alpine. They finished 9th with Gasly from 20th on the grid in Bahrain, but retired Ocon after his race was riddled with penalties. He had qualified 9th and it was just a silly, messy first race for the team.

Alpine Odds A Touch Generous?

They were more together in Jeddah, with both cars into Q3 and both home in the points. Alpine had a double points finish rate of 50% in 2022 and it can be argued that odds of 2.20 are a touch generous, but it is a very small touch.

There are three possible ante post selections. Bottas for a top 10 finish, Alonso to beat his teammate and both Ferraris and Mercedes, and a double points finish for Alpine.

My strike rate with the ante post bets so far has been poor and I would rather just bet on this race after qualifying. That has been more successful so far. None of the above bets are great, but the Bottas one at least offers better odds of reward and that will be the limit of my ante post betting on this race.

2023 Australian GP Betting Tip: 1 point Bottas to finish in the top 10 @ 3.00 generally available

There will be an update for the race which will be posted before 6pm UK time on Saturday.

-JamesPunt