2023 Australian GP Raceday Update

After an interesting qualifying session in the early hours, Max Verstappen took pole in Melbourne. Unfortunately, our bet for a top 10 finish, Bottas, only managed 19th. James Punt has a few more bets for the big race, check out his 2023 Australian GP Raceday update below.

2023 Australian GP Raceday Preview

The form of the Aussie GP weekend so far has been a bit strange. The weather has played its part with very cool, damp and windy conditions making it very hard to get the tyres into their working window.

The gird has Max Verstappen starting from pole position, but like Jeddah, it has not been plain sailing for Red Bull in qualifying. Perez, who has been struggling all weekend, crashed out in Q1 before even setting a time and he will start in last place.

Mercedes are back! Well maybe not. They start from 2nd and 3rd on the grid, Russell once again out qualified Hamilton, but the team were very happy to be just 0.236 off Verstappen’s time with Russell and a further tenth off with Hamilton.

I doubt that this is any great revival, rather than track/conditions specific. They say the car was set up to help look after the tyres over a race distance but admit that they won’t know if they have succeeded until the race is under way.

Alonso Solid

Alonso has been there abouts all weekend and starts 4th with his teammate 6th. The Ferraris were struggling. Sainz was a best placed 5th with Leclerc a disappointing 7th. Albon was one of the stars of the show, making use of Williams’ low drag set up to qualify 8th, Alpine have Gasly 9th and Ocon 11th. Hulkenberg will once again start from 10th place.

Verstappen starts as the 1.33 favourite with Russell and Alonso 10.00, Hamilton 13.00, Perez and Sainz 41.00, Leclerc 51.00 and 101.00 bar those.

Reliability Issues Red Bull

From what we have seen in the first two races, Verstappen wins, so long as he finishes. The Red Bull is very fast but proving to be unreliable. In Jeddah, Max retired in qualifying with a broken drive shaft and today, Perez crashed after his car was having an unspecified problem which was forcing him to struggle to get the car turned into corners. Verstappen had also complained of problems with his gear shifts.

It hasn’t been a great track for him, or Red Bull, and he is far from a stick on. Perez can only hope the team can work out what his car’s problem is. He had it in FP3, but they were unable to fix it for qualifying. We saw Verstappen carve through the field in Jeddah, but this is a harder track on which to overtake on and I doubt Perez will be able to make it yet another 1-2 for Red Bull.

Weather Watch

There is one factor which might mix things up tomorrow, to confuse things further, and that is the weather. It has been cold, cloudy and showery for the first two days, but the weather for the race is for wall-to-wall sunshine, not much in the way of a breeze and air temperature of 21 degrees.

That is going to up the track temperature and change the way the tyres interact with it. I would not be surprised if there are a few teams left scratching their heads, wondering why they are suffering with much more deg, and a few who might find the sweet spot.

There has not been a lot of long runs completed in practice and certainly no running in the better conditions expected tomorrow. The rain has kept the track relatively green so far but with F3F and F2 races tomorrow before the GP, it will be rubbered-in to a greater degree as well. The tyre/track interaction is likely to be quite different for tomorrow’s race.

2023 Australian GP Raceday: Summary

The script says that Verstappen will have the pace to open a gap early on and then just manage the tyres, which is a lot easier in the clean air. Reliability is his greatest threat and as such, he makes no appeal from a betting perspective at 1.33.

The chasing pack will be hoping that Verstappen hits trouble and they can inherit a win. It is worth considering who would be most likely to benefit the most and maybe pick up a win.

The Aston Martin has looked the second best car so far this season and was for most of this weekend. Mercedes just found a sweet spot in Q3 and that might not be the case in different conditions tomorrow. It is a car with a small operating window and changing conditions may knock it out of the sweet spot they hit in the dying stages of Q3.

Alonso A Fast Starter

Alonso has been very quick off the line in the opening two GPs and he will be looking to make up a place at the start and then make use of the DRS when it kicks in. The opening lap in Melbourne has seen some incidents in the past and do not rule out a casualty or two early on. Alonso knows that his car’s race pace is better than its qualifying. He has finished on the podium starting from 3rd and 5th so far, and 4th place puts him in a good place to do it again.

Ferrari do not look to be in a good place. Their race pace has been poor in the first two races and now they are starting further back than before. With the Astons and Mercedes starting ahead of Leclerc and Sainz just 5th, they look to have their work cut out if they want a podium.

Albon scored a point here last year despite starting last. He only did the one stop and did it on the penultimate lap. The team have set his car up to be fast on the straights. That makes him very hard to overtake and he is quite optimistic for another points finish.

Alpine Prospects

Alpine start with Gasly in 8th and Ocon 11th. He missed out on Q3 by just 0.007 seconds and they should be able to get another double points finish with a clear run. Nico Hulkenberg is the meat in an Alpine sandwich. His Haas has a good DRS system which will make him hard to pass, but the car’s race pace has not been great in the first two races. They are optimistic of a good haul of points.

There is nobody who could be said to be out of position in the bottom half of the grid with the obvious exception of Perez. His chances totally depend on the team being able to fix the problem which ruined his day today. If they have, he can hope to make his way into the points, but a podium would be a surprise, maybe top 6 is more realistic. He looks rattled and can see his World Championship dreams taking a kicking if the problem cannot be addressed properly.

We had just the one ante post bet and it was one too many. Bottas has had a torrid weekend. The Alfa has been slow and starting 19th and 17th is exactly where they are. The team say they are happy with the updates they have brought. I’d hate to see where they would be if they weren’t.

RaceDay Selections

With conditions looking likely to be different tomorrow, this is a hard race to call, and it may be wise to keep the bets few and modest.

2023 Australian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point e/w Fernando Alonso to win @ 9.50 with Hills, Betfair

A podium finish bet was going to be the call but with only one Red Bull looking to be in the podium frame and reliability not rock solid for the championship leaders, it is just about worth rolling the dice and going e/w for the win. The Aston’s race pace is likely to be at least a match for the Mercedes, his race starts are always worth watching and he has a reasonable chance of second place if Verstappen wins. If the Red Bull hits trouble, you never know.

2023 Australian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point double points finish for Alpine @ 2.10 with Skybet

The Alpines’ race pace has been decent in the first two races and starting 9th and 11th is a good starting point.

2023 Australian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Alex Albon to finish in the points @ 2.10 with Skybet, Unibet

The team have set the car up to play to its strengths and Albon is good enough to deliver the drive needed to execute the plan. He is happy that while the straight-line speed is exactly what they need, he is not losing too much performance in the corners. It is only the slow ones which are hard for him, but those are not overtaking spots. The team have used this strategy before, so they know what they are doing.

2023 Australian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lance Stroll to win Group 1 @ 3.00 with Ladbrokes

The Aston Martin driver starts behind Sainz but ahead of Leclerc. The car’s race pace has been clearly better than Ferrari in the first two races and if he can have a clear round, he can land this. Pierre Gasly is the fourth man in the group but the Alpine is not yet ready to mix it with Aston Martin right now.

-JamesPunt