2023 Austrian GP Raceday Update and Tips – JP
2023 Austrian GP Raceday Update
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2023 Austrian GP Raceday preview and betting tips.
2023 Austrian GP Raceday
At long last, we finally get to the actual Grand Prix. It’s been a whitewash so far, nothing has gone right, but I’ll not be chasing losses.
The last two days of action should have told us everything we need to know for today’s race, but we are still in the dark about a few things thanks to the changeable conditions over the first two days.
Friday was dry, hot and sunny with track temperatures of 40-48 degrees. Saturday was cloudy, cool and damp with the track around 21-22 degrees. Completely different conditions and our knowledge of who is going to get the best tyre wear is scant.
One Practice Session
We have had just one free practice session and much of that was taken with getting the set up for the GP qualifying session on Friday afternoon. There weren’t many long run simulations carried out and yesterday wet-drying sprint race was run on inters and inters to slicks, so of no great relevance to today’s forecast conditions of partly cloudy skies with air temperatures of 23 degrees.
It was 27 -28 degrees on Friday, generating the high track temperatures in the forties. Today the track will be cooler than Friday, but a lot warmer than yesterday. Thunderstorms are forecast but seem more likely in the hours leading up to the race. The humidity is falling as the afternoon goes on and the cloud ceiling rising during the race. The chance of rain is said to be under 25%.
Red Bull
Verstappen has been fastest in every session so far. It was very close between him and Leclerc in race qualifying on Friday and once again Sergio Perez found a way to miss out on Q3. That is four in a row and completely unacceptable in a Red Bull.
The drivers complain about the white lines being too hard to keep inside of, but these are supposed to be the best drivers in the world. Finding the limit but not going over it is the name of the game and here, the track limits are the limit. Just go a little slower and keep a slightly slower time. That doesn’t seem too difficult as a concept.
Verstappen is the 1.25 favourite and he should oblige but remember that he started from pole last year and lost out to Charles Leclerc. Verstappen has no wingman to help him and he has two fast Ferrari’s behind him.
Perez starts 15th and is not in contention for much more than some consolation points. It doesn’t look like a great lap for overtaking and he will have to be aggressive if he isn’t to get stuck in the inevitable DRS trains.
Ferrari
Have the second fastest car this weekend, at least they did in the dry, hot conditions on Friday. Sainz has been the more consistent of the two and he shouldn’t be overlooked.
Last year the Ferrari was just better on the tyres in the race and that allowed Leclerc to pit later and retake the lead on newer rubber after the two stops. Ferrari’s weakness has been tyre deg over a race distance and it would be easy to say that they will fall back this afternoon.
However, with the upgrade introduced in Montreal, their race pace was the class of the field but that was obscured by them starting 10th and 11th. Finishing 4th and 5th told the story and had they been up at the front, who knows? Montreal is a different challenge to the Red Bull Ring, so we are still at least in some doubt.
Leclerc does go well here and the Ferrari’s great traction will be handy out of turn 3, a good overtaking/defensive corner. If Ferrari has cured the car of its habit of chewing up their tyres, we may well have a more of a race than we have become used to in 2023.
McLaren
Norris is having another great weekend in Austria. Of course he didn’t work out yesterday as his car kicked into anti-stall in turn 3 as he avoided the two Red Bulls having an argument. That dropped him to 10th and that was race over. He starts 4th today and realistically that is likely to be as good as it gets.
The upgrade is yet to be unleashed over a race distance and yesterday’s sprint was no kind of pointer for today. He was losing out in sector one in the sprint qualifying and that cost him a front row spot.
The McLaren is not as slippery through the air as others and he will be vulnerable to attack from a car with DRS. He is the best driver of this track and is likely to score good points, perhaps a top 6 unless there is attrition ahead of him.
Piastri starts 13th in the un-modified car. Of course, we have yet to see this upgrade in a race distance situation, so we are a little in the dark Norris wise.
Mercedes
Haven’t really been on the pace so far. The race is when they traditionally come alive however and Hamilton will be looking to get past Norris before setting his sights on the front three. However, the Ferrari’s could be a much more difficult proposition if they have cured their tyre deg problems.
We backed Russell for a podium but he starts a distant 11th and that is too far back unless we get some shenanigans. Hamilton is a 2.30 to finish on the podium and he is in the mix.
Aston Martin
As Ferrari and Mercedes have brought their upgrades, so Aston Martin have fallen back. They had been 6th, 7th or 8th in the first three sessions before finishing 4th and 5th in the damp sprint race.
Lance Stroll has been quicker than Alonso in three of the four sessions and the Spaniard’s indifferent form in Austria continues.
They have only had two podiumless weekends, the first being at the Sprint race weekend in Baku. Ferrari are quicker, as is Hamilton. They will be aiming to get past Norris but unless Ferrari have tyre woes, a podium looks unlikely.
Haas
Have enjoyed a good weekend so far and Hulkenberg’s excellent 6th place in the sprint race means they are already up to 7th place in the constructor’s table. He starts today’s race in 8th place but he is very likely to drop back into the pack.
The cool, damp conditions in yesterday’s sprint hid the cars tyre shredding propensities and they will not have that protection today.
Alpine
Yet again, I back them and yet again, they underdeliver. They have had a car in the top 10 in the last three sessions here but not two. They need some underperformers ahead of them if they are to get the double points finish.
Hulkenberg is beatable, but then they have Perez and Russell coming through behind them. They need to be foot perfect if they are to get both cars home in the points and one thing they have not been so far is foot perfect.
Williams
Put their hands up for screwing up Albon’s sprint race yesterday. He had made a great start jumping from 11th to 7th in the first corner and was holding his place nicely. The team dithered before deciding on a change to slicks which dropped him out of the top 10 with not enough time to come back.
The fact they put him on the medium tyre was the final nail in his coffin. However, the car is competitive here. Its straight line speed makes it very hard to pass and starting from 11th, if Albon can get another good start, he has the car and ability to hold that place even against faster cars. He finished 7th in Montreal and another points finish is within his grasp.
Alfa Romeo and Alpha Tauri need massive luck if they are to score any points today.
2023 Austrian GP Raceday: Race Winner
Verstappen is the very hot 1.25 favourite to win his seventh and Red Bull’s ninth race win of the season.
Threats? The resurgent Ferraris are a more realistic threat that at any point this season. That said, this is Ferrari we are talking about. It is one thing getting the car sorted, another to execute the race without fault. Leclerc is 15.00 (win only) or 12.00 for each way bets. It is a sporting price.
There is one more threat to Red Bull. Track limits. They tend to be forgotten about after qualifying, but repeated breaches of track limits can lead to time penalties.
We saw Max get repeated warnings for track limits in Miami despite him being under no pressure. If he has a Ferrari up his chuff, he could be forced into pushing beyond the limits. Now, call me a cynic, but would this be a perfect opportunity to mix things up?
Options For Ferrari
Ferrari have more strategic options with both cars in the top 3. They may choose a split strategy to unsettle Red Bull and we could get a good race so long as Verstappen doesn’t just open up a decent lead and control the race from the front. Verstappen was a short priced favourite last year and it didn’t work out that well with Leclerc nursing a problematic car home in first place.
Carlos Sainz has been the steadier performer for Ferrari this weekend and all season, but Leclerc has the greater speed. He has been 1st or 2nd in three of his six Austrian GPs and this was the scene of his last win. I’ll take a chance that he can get it home first or second once again.
2023 Austrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point e/w Charles Leclerc to win @ 12.00 with Skybet, Hills, BetVictor
Alex Albon looks backable this afternoon, but for what? He is a best priced 2.75 to finish in the points, but that may be touch and go if Russell and Perez get past him as is expected.
Albon can be backed at 2.60 to win Ladbrokes Group 3, where he is grouped with Hulkenberg, Piastri and Bottas. I think we can disregard Bottas. He has a great track record but the Alfa Romeo has looked poor all weekend. Piastri is in the McLaren which has not got the upgrades and that means slow.
Hulkenberg starts ahead of Albon but the Haas traditionally engages reverse gear in the races. They have tried set up changes to address the tyre wear problems but Hulkenberg has stated that he believes it is a chassis problem, baked into the car’s design and not fixable with a major redesign.
2023 Austrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Alex Albon to win Group 3 @ 2.60 with Ladbrokes
The last bet has to go with Lando Norris. We’ve backed him twice this weekend and come up dry, all be it by 0.07 seconds for a front row in the sprint shootout at 176.00.
The upgrade on his McLaren is working and it has arrived in time for his strongest track. He has done very little wrong and just got caught out by the anti-stall yesterday. Only once in six races on this track has he finished outside the top 6 and that was seventh place.
He has cars that have been faster in earlier races behind him on the grid and the belief is that Hamilton, the Astons, Perez and Russell will all overtake him. In the old McLaren yes, in the new one? We don’t know yet.
