2023 Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tips – DS
2023 Ayr and Newbury Saturday Preview and Tips
We had to make do with a solitary 20/1 place with Commanche Falls on Thursday. Dancing Magic ran well but just missed out on the e/w money. Penzance was green as grass and Grace Angle far too keen. Lime Drop looked to be travelling sweetly but she lost her position three out and never recovered. The Scottish Grand National is the feature on a day of jumps and flat action on ITV on Saturday, check out Dave Stevos’ 2023 Ayr and Newbury Saturday tips below.
1.15 Ayr – Handicap Chase (Premier)
First of all, the ground. It looked a lovely afternoon at Ayr on Friday but there is due to be a few hours rain on Saturday morning so the ground may well be on the easy side. The only one at double figure odds that makes any appeal is Gold De Bois but he was beaten nearly 10L off 2lbs lower in this race last season and his last two runs have been well below par. A race that is best watched, no bet.
2023 Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tip: No bet
1.30 Newbury – John Porter Stakes (Group 3)
It was wet at Newbury on Friday and with more showers forecast on Saturday, there’s going to be cut in the ground. In these conditions race fitness could make a big difference and Surrey Mist certainly won’t be lacking in that department. Kevin Philippart De Foy trains this 4yo son of Kendargent and he has already got a run under his belt. He ran a grand race over an inadequate trip in a Saint Cloud G3 (10f vry sft), beaten just over 4L into 4th.
This horse was formerly trained by George Baker and his best run for him came over 10f at this track. On good ground, Surrey Mist was beat 0.5L by Israr off a mark of 85 and he is now 4lbs worse off with that rival, who is 8/1 today. He could turn that around on soft and at this longer trip. After a couple of disappointing subsequent runs the owners switched yards and they were instantly rewarded with an 11.5f handicap win at Windsor off 89. De Foy then sent his charge to Deauville for a Listed contest (12f sft) and he obliged again, winning by 4L.
The form of his last run looks decent, with the horse just ahead of him in 3rd since running well in a Longchamp G2. His two soft ground runs in France are the only two occasions he has had testing conditions and they resulted in the two best runs of his career. There might be more to come on soft ground and he is the only runner in the race that has had a run. At 20/1, Surrey Mist is the e/w selection.
2023 Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tip: Surrey Mist e/w @ 20/1
1.50 Ayr – Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase (Class 2)
At odds of 16/1, maybe Ned Tanner can go well for the home team in this handicap chase. A trip of 24f awaits this field of 9 novice chasers and Nick Alexander’s charge has run well on both his previous visits to this track. He has been running mainly at Kelso this term but on his last outing at Ayr, he landed a 19.5f handicap hurdle (19f sft) off a mark of 112.
Alexander decided to go chasing this season and after a promising debut over fences at Kelso (23.5f gd/sft) when a solitary mistake proved costly, he made no mistake next time. In December he won off 116 (23f sft) and then two runs later he won off 117 (23f gd), both at Kelso. A month ago he ran a grand race over 20f at Haydock, finishing 4L behind Richmond Lake (form franked on Friday). Stepping back up to this trip will suit, he has course winning form and at 16/1, Ned Tanner is the e/w selection.
2023 Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tip: Ned Tanner e/w @ 16/1 NB
2.05 Newbury – Fred Darling Stakes (Group 3)
A very decent sized field of 14 for this 7f Group 3 for the 3yo fillies. No doubt plenty of winners will come out of this race but working out who is going to win today it isn’t going to be easy. An ability to handle soft ground is going to be key and the top four in the betting all have form on ground with soft in the description. The fav Remarquee and Swingalong have won on good to soft but they have yet to encounter properly soft ground.
As in the previous Newbury race, all but one of these fillies lacks a recent run. With uncertainties about the ground for quite a few, maybe Liberalist can outrun her odds of 50/1. Trained by Michael Bell, this daughter of Pivotal is owned by Sangster, Magnier and Shanahan, among others. A 70k yearling, her dam is a half sister to soft ground Group winner, Dick Whittington.
Solid Debut
Bell’s filly ran well on her debut at Newmarket (7f gd/fm), beat 9L by subsequent G3 and G1 placed Bright Diamond. A couple of months later she finished 3rd over the same C&D on soft. After her winter break she reappeared at Thirsk (7f sft) and finally got her head in front. The horse she beat that day is a very nicely bred half brother to G3 winner Tabdeed and they pulled 6L clear of the 3rd.
The handicapper wasn’t too impressed by her Thirsk win, handing her a mark of 78. If he is correct, she has absolutely no chance here but the fact that Bell is taking a punt suggests that he thinks this filly might be capable of nicking black type. We know she’ll definitely go on the ground, we know she is fully fit so at odds of 50/1, a modest e/w interest is advised.
2023 Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tip: Liberalist e/w @ 50/1
2.25 Ayr – Scottish Champion Handicap Hurdle (Grade 2)
Our old pal Colonel Mustard pitches up here looking to go one better than at Kelso in the Morebattle. He got a 3lb hike for that 2L defeat but he is a rock solid horse and he should be capable of winning off that sort of rating. Anna Bunina will be a big danger if the ground doesn’t turn too soft with Ben Harvey claiming 5lbs. Milkwood is another one that looks on a decent mark but the bookies aren’t taking any chances. A race I’m happy to sit out, no bet.
2023 Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tip: No Bet
2.40 Newbury – Greenham Stakes (Group 3)
Dewhurst winner Chaldean makes his return in this 7f G3 for 3yo colts and geldings. Three of his four wins have come on good ground but he won a G2 at Doncaster on soft so chances are, he’ll handle the ground today. However, some horses can handle certain conditions once and then never act on them again so the fact that the vast majority of his form is on good ground is slightly disconcerting. On ratings he is miles clear and he is unsurprisingly odds on.
If the ground were quicker I’d be tempted by The Ridler. He was one of our nicest winners last year at Royal Ascot at 50s but he has never encountered ground with soft in the description. One horse that is guaranteed to go on the ground is the Newmarket novice winner, Classic. Trained by Richard Hannon, this colt is by a top drawer sire in Dubawi.
Craven Form
He ran well enough on his first two outings on quick ground, when 4th here on debut on good, 1.5L behind Tarjeeh. Hannon’s charge then found just The Foxes too good at Goodwood (7f gd/fm). That horse ran very well in the Craven earlier this week. On his third start Classic finally got soft ground at Newmarket and he hacked up, beating Obelix by over 3L.
That wasn’t the best novice ever run at Newmarket but all bar one of the six horses in behind have won at varying levels since. There wasn’t much to take from his last run of 2022 over a mile here on good ground but 7f on soft should suit a lot better. Richard Hannon’s horses are in good form and after Classic won at Newmarket he said ‘It wouldn’t surprise me if we see him turn up at the top level, especially on soft ground.’ Hopefully Classic can prove him right at odds of 33/1.
2023 Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tip: Classic e/w @ 33/1
3.00 Ayr – Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
With Richmond Lake unlikely to run after winning on Friday, just six will run in this. Again, it is a tight affair from a betting perspective and the longest priced horse is just 12/1. Telmesomethingirl might go well for Kenny Alexander but odds of 6/1 don’t appeal. No bet.
2023 Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tip: No Bet
3.15 Newbury – Spring Cup Handicap (Class 2)
Revich ran in this in 2021 under a 5lb claimer and he was only beat 2.75L off 96. He is back to roll the dice again, this time off a mark of 92, and Jim Crowley has been booked for the ride. He rode Richard Spencer’s son of Requinto to be 2nd off 95 at Epsom last season and this is the lowest rating he has raced off since winning at Ayr back in September 2021, his last victory.
Obviously, this horse isn’t easy to win with but he usually gives his running. He was placed four times last season off 95/96 and he ran very respectably in the Lincoln on his seasonal return at Donny. He split Bopedro (0.5L ahead) and Toshizou (0.75L behind) and they finished 1st and 3rd at Newmarket last weekend.
The 7yo should improve markedly for that run and his form figures second time out during his career read 32543. Two of his wins have come on ground with soft in the description and his trainer fired in a welcome winner here yesterday. Off a pound lower than he was at Doncaster, hopefully Revich can reward e/w support at odds of 16/1.
2023 Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tip: Revich e/w @ 16/1 (4 places) NAP
3.35 Ayr – Scottish Grand National (Premier)
We have already backed Waitnsee for the Scottish National at 50/1. Read why here. She has drifted to 66s with a couple of firms, which isn’t a good sign, but hopefully Danny Mullins gets a decent tune out of her.
With 23 runners it probably makes sense to back another one here, just in case the rain comes and scuppers Waitnsee’s chances. With the forecast showing rain from 8am through the afternoon, it might turn soft and with that in mind, Sandy Thomson’s Empire Steel is put up as an alternative selection.
Back On Track
The 9yo son of Aizavoski doesn’t mind getting his toe in but good to soft is fine too. He was last sighted getting back on track at Kelso (23.5f gd/sft) after two poor efforts to start his campaign. He beat Le Milos by 0.75L off 141 and he got a 4lb hike for that win. His other four wins have come on soft/heavy, including a wide margin win over Protektorat in February 2021.
His Ayr form figures read 312, all on soft or heavy. Sandy Thomson thinks a lot of him and he is unexposed at marathon trips. The furthest he has tackled is 26f when he just failed off a mark of 146 at Kelso on good ground. This is just his 4th run of the season so he should be fresher than most and his Scottish trainer would love to win this race. He can make the odd mistake so hopefully he puts in a clear round and if he does, a big run could be on the cards at 18/1.
