2023 Azerbaijan GP Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2023 Azerbaijan GP betting preview. Check it out below.

2023 Azerbaijan GP

The 2023 Azerbaijan GP will be the sixth renewal, but the seventh race around the Baku City Circuit. It was first used for the 2016 European Grand Prix.

One thing that stands out when looking at the past results is that nobody has multiple race wins. Seven races with seven different winners. Only two teams have won the race, Red Bull and Mercedes with three wins each. Red Bull won the last two, with a 1-2 finish last year.

Proper Street Circuit

The 2023 Azerbaijan GP circuit is a proper street circuit which is very unforgiving. It features a very long straight on which it is very hard to defend position, such is the powerful tow effect coupled with a DRS zone. The DRS zones’ effectiveness depends on what kind of set up the engineers go for.

There is a decision to be made. A low downforce set up to capitalise on the long straight, or a higher downforce set up to cope with the twenty corners, ten of which are 90 degree ones, requiring stability under braking and good traction coming out of them.

A bigger rear wing for downforce will produce a more powerful DRS effect. However, a shallower rear wing will produce less drag but like at Monza, the DRS effect is much less noticeable.

With this year’s Red Bull being significantly more aero efficient than the rest of the field, they can run more downforce without it losing much pace on the straight, and their very powerful DRS will be dynamite. That presumes that anyone will be in front of a Red Bull, which may not be the case.

Three Week Break

We have had a three week break since the near farcical Australian GP and the teams will have headed back to base to address their cars’ weaknesses or improve on its strengths. There will be upgrades on show, some bigger than others. The teams will have been keen to build up some reserves of spare parts ahead of this race as it is famously unforgiving and we have seen plenty of bent cars over the years.

The development wars can change the pecking order so long as the upgrades do as what they are expected to do, which is not always the case.

All Eyes On Mercedes

One team everyone is watching is Mercedes. Earlier this week, they announced that they had reshuffled their design department, bringing back James Allison, the designer of the Mercedes cars that racked up multiple constructor’s titles.

That is final confirmation that the zero pod concept is dead and its designer, Mike Elliott moved sideways. Allison has been in post since the Aussie GP but his job is for next year’s car. What happens with this year’s car is a different matter.

Mixed Messages

Mercedes are sending out mixed messages. There is talk of massive gains being made on the simulator and that they are about to unleash a much improved car, but the bottom line is that they are doing a screeching u-turn, pressing the reset button for 2024 and beyond.

The 2023 car will be tweaked and revised but effectively, it is being dumped. Making the most of a bad job looks to be the best Mercedes can do while it sorts out next year’s car. If there was a Red Bull beater in the W14 they wouldn’t be having a technical reshuffle and abandoning the concept.

Mercedes have spent the break working to make the car ‘more driveable’ and a program of upgrades to bring steady improvements. Their first big upgrade will be at Imola in a couple of races time.

2023 Azerbaijan GP Race Weekend Format

The 2023 Azerbaijan GP will be the first of the season to feature a Sprint Race, but the format has been changed from it has been previously. We will have FP1 as usual. The one hour session is the only chance for the teams to fine tune their setup for the rest of the weekend. Friday afternoon will then feature a qualifying session to set the grid for Sunday’s race. Getting through FP1 intact and getting the worklist completed will be crucial.

The practice session that would normally be held on Saturday morning will now be replaced by another qualifying session, which will set the grid for the sprint race.

The sprint race will NOT be used to set the grid for actual Grand Prix on Sunday, that will have been set in Friday’s qualifying session. It is as clear as soup, but it looks like F1 owners want to move to the F2 system of two race weekends, a short sprint race on Saturday with half points scored, and the main event on Sunday.

Watered Down

I thought the idea of the sprint race was to have a way to ‘mix up the grid’ a bit, but this this revamped system is just reducing practice time and having two races with associated qualifying sessions instead. Watering down the show is my opinion.

The Netflix generation need to have ‘meaningful’ track action, so practice is being slowly phased out. I am of the less is more school of thought, but modern F1 is just about more. More Grand Prix’s, more sprint races, more qualifying sessions and more money.

The fact that there will be just a 1 hour practice session puts a premium on finding a good set up quickly and bringing a car with a load of updates could be a mistake as there just won’t be the time to evaluate everything properly.

The fact that we will have two races means there is twice the chance to crash. How wise the choice is of using such a high speed street circuit to have this new sprint race weekend has been questioned. Expensive repair jobs eat into the teams’ capped budgets and Baku was likely to be expensive in any case, but with two races, more so.

Team by Team Guide

Red Bull 

Red Bull remain in a class of their own. It hasn’t all been plain sailing and they only scored a 1st and 5th in Melbourne last time out after Perez’ struggles in qualifying left him starting from the pit lane. The Albert Park track is not easy to overtake on, and he could only reach 5th.

Still, Red Bull lead Aston Martin in second place by 58 points after the first three races. From the first three races they have scored three pole positions, three race wins, two fastest laps and two 1-2 finishes.

Theirs is the best car by some margin and while reliability hasn’t been perfect, they have had three weeks off to address any little niggles. They also have the luxury of only having to improve the car, not addressing any great shortcomings. Another 1-2 looks likely.

Aston Martin

The surprise package. From seventh place in 2022 they are Red Bull’s nearest pursuer and have scored three third places with Fernando Alonso. They switched to a Red Bull style design in the middle of 2022 and here they are.

That time lag from change of design to on track improvement gives us a hint as to when to expect Mercedes to finally join the ground effect era. The Aston Martin has been nicknamed the Green Red Bull, but there’s nothing wrong with the old saying, ‘if you can’t beat them, join them’.

However, it is not a Red Bull, not as quick and not yet competing with them, just in a position to take advantage of any problems for the top team. The car is draggy, however, and that may not be so good around this track. OK for the slower sectors but it may be a bit of a sitting duck on the straights, defending DRS attacks. They are likely to bring a low drag rear wing to combat this, but that in turn affects pace in the corners.

Mercedes

I have covered above. Their main focus is now 2024 and beyond. The rest of 2023 is just trying to get the best out of what they have. They can improve handling and driveability but so will everyone else. The car is not a total dog, it was worse in 2022 and still finished third in the constructor’s championship.

It is very reliable and they have a good drivers, but it is not the class of the field and another season of podiums, but few if any wins, looks likely. They finished 3rd and 4th here last year but were flattered by Ferrari’s double retirement.

This year’s car may struggle on the long straight here. It has suffered with ‘clipping’ which is when a car loses speed on a long straight when the battery is drained and the engine power has maxed out. The Aston Martin is another that has been affected in the same way.

Ferrari 

The Italians have been struggling from the start and are now trying to improve. They will not be bringing an upgrade this week, preferring to wait until Miami when there will be no sprint race and more time to test the new parts. They are working on improving the handling of the car, understanding it before throwing new upgrades at it.

Ferrari are only in 4th place, 30 points behind Mercedes and already getting detached from the second division cars. The car has good DRS effectiveness, not as good as Red Bull, but best of the rest and that could serve them well here. Their race pace in Australia was a lot better than in the first two races and they are heading in the right direction.

McLaren 

Got lucky in Melbourne, finishing 6th and 8th, benefitting from the two Alpines taking themselves out of the points with two laps to go, and Carlos Sainz demotion out of the top 10. Having 12 points and being 5th in the table flatters them.

This weekend will see them bring their first upgrade package. The car they launched was never the finished article and they are finally getting to the car they want. The floor will be the main area of development, unseen by the naked eye but the most important performance generator of these ground effect cars.

Alpine 

If McLaren are flattered by being 5th, Alpine are better than 6th suggests. For their two drivers to crash into each other in the dying laps in Melbourne, costing them a double points finish and us our double points bet, was very unwelcome. However, the car does look to have potential and they are another team who have decided to bring an upgrade package to Baku.

It may not be as big as McLaren’s, but it is said to be substantial and includes a new floor. Alpine executed a good development program in 2022 and they need to do the same thing in 2023. Gasly seems to be finding his feet within the car and team and was running 5th before events transpired to end his race in Melbourne.

Haas

Need to make hay while the sun shines. Not a team known for having strong development programs, they need to score points before the likes of Alpine and McLaren get going. Hulkenberg is showing great qualifying pace, making Q3 twice and only just missing out in Jeddah. Race pace doesn’t seem to be as good and Magnussen just hasn’t got going yet.

Alfa Romeo

Have been very disappointing. It started off OK, Bottas was 8th in Bahrain and Zhou set the fastest lap but since then, they have slipped back and could only qualify 17th and 19th in Melbourne. Bottas in particular is lost, second best to Zhou in qualifying and the race in the last two.

They will become Audi next season and you have to ask the question, do they want to do particularly well in 2023? Yes, the prizemoney is important, but not as much as when they have a manufacturer coming in to back them. But having a lot more wind tunnel/CFD time for next year might be more useful.

Alfa had a new nose design in Australia and while the team say it worked as expected, the car’s pace in qualifying was poor. A cool track and traffic on the flying laps were to blame, but the car was still slow on the straights and lacks downforce. They finished poorly in 2022, so perhaps it isn’t a surprise that they are still poor in 2023.

Alpha Tauri

Arguably the most disappointing car of 2023. Being very slow in a straight line is a major weakness and it is fair to say that they are not looking forward to this weekend.

Williams

In better shape than their bottom of the table position suggests. Albon qualified 8th in Melbourne but crashed out early on. Logan Sargeant hasn’t got going yet but he looks to be an improvement on Nicolas Latifi.

All On The Board

It is notable that after three races, every constructor has scored at least one point. It’s too early to say of course, but perhaps the success handicapping via limited wind tunnel/CFD limits for the leading teams is beginning to bunch the field.

It would appear that the ‘midfield’ this year is closer. With a great driver performance and/or a bit of luck it is possible for any driver to score points. Red Bull may be off and away into the distance, Aston, Ferrari and Mercedes are squabbling for the remaining podium place, but after that it is a bit of a bunfight.

McLaren and Alpine would seem to be likely to improve more quickly than the rest of the midfield, but for once, even the guys at the back will think that they can score. The downside is that any mistakes will reflect badly on the driver.

The 2023 Azerbaijan GP Track

I like it. I would go as far to say that the Azerbaijan GP is the must watch of the whole season. It rarely fails to deliver drama and much of that has to do with the layout of the track. Being a city street circuit means it is run on roads rather than a racetrack.

To fit it in requires a lot of 90 degree corners which create pinch points and invite collisions at the start and at any re-starts. The fact that the walls are close and unforgiving means that drivers really need to be on it. Sloppy drivers will get found out, as will ill handling cars.

Random Madness

We have had also had random factors like manhole covers coming loose, recovery trucks crashing and high speed tyre blow outs. It is a race where it really isn’t over till it’s over. Safety cars are a near certainty and we have seen this year that the stewards seem particularly keen to get the safety car out to bunch the field. That is ‘good for the show’ and brings Red Bull back to the pack, if only briefly.

The chance of a red flag is high in Baku, such is the difficulty of removing any crashed cars safely. Incidents in qualifying can also have serious implications. A crash in the dying minutes of a qualifying session can mean curtains for anyone on a flying lap. The chance of something unusual happening are high in Baku.

Signature Straight

The track’s signature feature is a 2.2km flat out ‘straight’ which makes up a large percentage of the lap. This is another reasonable length straight and that demands that the cars are set up with a low drag configuration to maximise speed.

However, the rest of the lap features a lot of 90 degree corners and some twisty sections where you want more downforce. The classic compromises are required. It is like the love child of Monza and Monaco.

Cars that are aerodynamically efficient should do better as they can achieve more downforce with less drag. Stand up Red Bull. The most aerodynamically efficient car in the field gives them more options and they are not going to find the challenges of Baku as hard as the rest of the field.

At the other end of the scale the likes of Alpha Tauri and Alfa Romeo are likely to struggle. Williams straight line speed could be rewarded, but as we saw in Melbourne, giving up downforce does have consequences when it comes to corners.

Driver Records

With six different winners from six races here, there is nobody with an outstanding track record. The past winners on the grid are Verstappen, Perez, Hamilton and Bottas. Red Bull and Mercedes are the only two teams to have won, but Ferrari had pole position last year with Leclerc.

Perez does grab my eye as he has a win, a second place, two third places and just one DNF. He qualified 2nd for Force India in 2016 and finished 3rd, despite a five place grid penalty. His best races have come at street circuits and clearly, he is one to follow in these type of races. His win was fortuitous after Verstappen suffered a late tyre blow out and Hamilton screwed up the restart, but he has the car and more misfortune could come Verstappen’s way. Max has the one win but no other podium finish and two DNF’s.

Further down the grid, Pierre Gasly has enjoyed a couple of good results here, finishing 3rd and 5^th in his last two races here. Lando Norris has three top nine places with a best of 5^th and no DNF’s. Alonso has been steady in uncompetitive machinery with finishes of 9/7/6/7 in his last four visits.

Lewis Hamilton has not enjoyed too much joy here by his standards. In six races he has only beaten his teammate once. Russell is 3-0 in their qualifying H2H’s in 2023.

Weather Forecast

The forecast is for pleasant weather for the weekend and improving temperatures day by day. Friday will be 21 degrees, partly cloudy and breezy. Saturday 23 degrees with more sun and Sunday very warm at 27 degrees and plenty of sun.

There was some concern that with the race being earlier in the year there was a risk of low temperatures causing grip problems. It looks fine for raceday but perhaps Friday will be a bit tricky with the cooler and breezy conditions.

Ante Post Selections

This new sprint race format does look like it could have consequences in terms of potential crash damage. The drivers are happy that the sprint race will not impact on their grid position for the race. That allows them to take more risks on Saturday.

The qualifying and sprint race are now stand alone events but trash your car and the team is under pressure to fix it for Sunday and there is the question of spare parts, especially for any new development parts.

It might be wise to hold fire until Sunday, but by then we will have had what is effectively a dress rehearsal, a Petit Prix if you like. I suspect that will mean a uniform menu of bets and odds across the market. I will take the plunge and have a few ante post and hope that the selections come through unscathed.

2023 Azerbaijan GP Tip: 1 point e/w Sergio Perez to win the Grand Prix @ 5.50 with Hills, Ladbrokes, Betfair, Skybet

Perez has a very good track record in Baku and his street racing record is also very good. He has won here, Monaco, Singapore and Saudi Arabia so he is comfortable within the walls of a proper street circuit. He has the best tool for the job, but beating Verstappen will not be easy and we may need a bit of luck, something that Verstappen has not always enjoyed in Azerbaijan.

2023 Azerbaijan GP Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to finish in the top 6 @ 5.50 with William Hill

Another driver with a positive track record and good street race credentials. He has been competitive in Monaco and Singapore along with this circuit. The Alpine is a promising machine and it will be sporting an upgrade this weekend. With the team having developed their car well in 2022, there is room for optimism that they can do the same this season. The car was impressive on the straights in Australia and they do look to have a good low downforce potential.

2023 Azerbaijan GP Tip: 1 point George Russell to beat Lewis Hamilton @ 2.08 with Unibet

Russell is 3-0 in qualifying but 1-2 in the races. He was leading in Melbourne before his power unit blew up. Hamilton has traditionally not fared well against his teammates here, losing in five of his six races, including following Russell home last year.

I will have something for ‘proper’ qualifying on Friday afternoon, something for the Petit Prix on Saturday and of course for the Grand Prix on Sunday. More work!

Be careful when placing your bets that you are placing them on the right markets, as it is easy to make mistakes with two qualifying sessions and two races.

-JamesPunt